Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[Jets4Life]

Since the old prediction thread is outdated (result was 782,600 in 2014). I thought it would be fun to predict what the population of Winnipeg would be on July 1, 2021 (the cutoff date every year in terms of estimates).

I think Winnipeg will continue to grow, and prosper. How about you?

PS Congratulations to the late SmileyBoy, who was the closest member to the actual result.

My prediction: 867,000

[Biff]

Shouldn't the poll read in 2021, not in 2016 which is now?

.....just sayin

[jmt18325]

Using Winnipeg's current growth rate, I'm going to go with 835K.

Edit: I made a calculation error. That should be 847K

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Using Winnipeg's current growth rate, I'm going to go with 835K.

Edit: I made a calculation error. That should be 847K

I was going to say somewhere between 845-850k (but I hope much closer to 900k!). you split the difference

[Wigs]

what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like

[bomberjet]

Originally Posted by Wigs

what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like

Typical southern Ontario centre of the universe type stuff.

[The Jabroni]

Originally Posted by Wigs

what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like

Not gonna happen.

Not by a long shot.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by Wigs

what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like

Seems really far fetched;

Kitchener-Waterloo - (2013)502k - (2016)517k = +15k
Winnipeg - (2013)770k - (2016)811k = +41k

Not only is Winnipeg 364k bigger already, in the last 4 years we have out gained them by 26k.

Not sure how they can reach 1m before Winnipeg if they aren't even out-gaining us.

[Jets4Life]

Originally Posted by Biff

Seems really far fetched;

Kitchener-Waterloo - (2013)502k - (2016)517k = +15k
Winnipeg - (2013)770k - (2016)811k = +41k

Not only is Winnipeg 364k bigger already, in the last 4 years we have out gained them by 26k.

Not sure how they can reach 1m before Winnipeg if they aren't even out-gaining us.

I read that thread a couple of months ago. My assumption is people in Southern Ontario are delusional, or cannot point to Winnipeg on a map.

[balletomane]

Yes, I know they are more accurate. I wish they were more often quoted in other sources such as Wikipedia where many people will get basic information about a city or town. Winnipeg's CMA estimate of 811,000 is significantly higher than the census result of 778,000, yet its the census result that will be used in most sources for the next five years. As for smaller communities its likely that the census result won't be much lower than its actual population.

[esquire]

For nearly my entire childhood, adolesence and young adult life it seemed like Winnipeg was stuck in the 600,000s... it's interesting to think that in a few years we're going to start closing in on a million people.

[thebasketballgeek]

Winnipeg is becoming a nicer city and more people possibly want to stay instead of moving to other places in Canada, and we will possibly start taking more immigrants in the near future. With the estimates in the other forum putting us at around 800000 which was 70000 more people than the last census. We could possibly have around 885,000 people living here by 2021.

[optimusREIM]

I'm gonna go with 879,000

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

Winnipeg is becoming a nicer city and more people possibly want to stay instead of moving to other places in Canada, and we will possibly start taking more immigrants in the near future. With the estimates in the other forum putting us at around 800000 which was 70000 more people than the last census. We could possibly have around 885,000 people living here by 2021.

Still a perception problem though:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2884952/wi...afe-city-poll/

Note that people's feelings don't mirror reality. Ottawa is definitely not safer than Quebec City.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Still a perception problem though:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2884952/wi...afe-city-poll/

Note that people's feelings don't mirror reality. Ottawa is definitely not safer than Quebec City.

Things are improving, but it always takes a while for perception to catch up with reality. That being said, it's still accurate to say that Winnipeg has more crime relative to most other major Canadian cities and likely will for years to come. It's actually remarkable how placid cities like Quebec City and the Atlantic Canadian ones are...

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by esquire

Things are improving, but it always takes a while for perception to catch up with reality. That being said, it's still accurate to say that Winnipeg has more crime relative to most other major Canadian cities and likely will for years to come.

That's very true, but most western Canadian cities are really just as unsafe.

[bomberjet]

Winnipeg CMA is estimated to be over 800k now. Almost 810k. Growing by about 12k people per year. So in 5 years that's another 60k people. My vote goes into the 875k box.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Winnipeg CMA is estimated to be over 800k now. Almost 810k. Growing by about 12k people per year. So in 5 years that's another 60k people. My vote goes into the 875k box.

The last stats Canada number we have is from 2015 and is 7934000. From 2012 to 2015, Winnipeg grew by about 1.3% a year. That means that as of July 1st this year, we should be at about 804000. Extrapolating that forward by another 4 years, I made a calculation error - I should have said 847000. Good thing I didn't vote yet.

[bomberjet]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

The last stats Canada number we have is from 2015 and is 7934000. From 2012 to 2015, Winnipeg grew by about 1.3% a year. That means that as of July 1st this year, we should be at about 804000. Extrapolating that forward by another 4 years, I made a calculation error - I should have said 847000. Good thing I didn't vote yet.

I'm being optimistic that the population will grow a little faster. So jumped to the 875k number just because!

[bomberjet]

Oh we're so unsafe. Go visit any other major City and we're no different.