SAN FRANCISCO | 45 Lansing St. | 450 FT / 137 M | 45 FLOORS | SITE PREP - Page 10

BTinSF · #**181** Posted: **Mar 18, 2008, 8:02 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nequidnimis

Your program is generous but fails to address the problem of the increasing number who owe more than their houses are worth... A moratorium on new construction until supply and demand are in equilibrium would help stabilize house prices. Hopefully, developers who persist on building in the current environment will carefully asses the numbers. Although they too can always walk away if they owe more than their developments are worth...

You cannot generalize "this environment" to all locations and across the price/quality spectrum. There is certainly not the supply/demand disequilibrium in San Francisco that there is in, for example, Stockton nor is there the same situation at the top end where Turnberry positions its projects as there may be at the level of, say, SOMA Grand. I am still unconvinced that there is going to be a glut of top end condos in San Francisco next month or 2 years from now.

As for "house" prices, almost nobody has been building "houses" in San Francisco for years. If prices of those are falling, it's not from oversupply but rather people suddenly unsure of what the appropriate value is. I think anybody whose mortgage payment is less than the rent they'd have to pay for an equivalent place is safe. And rents, I've read, are still rising in SF. But if you could rent your "house" or apartment for a lot less than your mortgage payment, you could have a problem.

In the case of 45 Lansing, though, I think these are going to be unique properties--very large, very high end finishes; almost unique in this market. And unless substantial wealth disappears from Northern California, I think that means they will be in demand if they are built.

roadwarrior · #**182** Posted: **Mar 18, 2008, 4:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by BTinSF

In the case of 45 Lansing, though, I think these are going to be unique properties--very large, very high end finishes; almost unique in this market. And unless substantial wealth disappears from Northern California, I think that means they will be in demand if they are built.

BT, I agree with you regarding the insatiable demand on the high-end in SF. I don't think we'll have an issue finding interested buyers. My main cause of concern of any delay in this process would be the securing of financing. Even if Turnberry can put together a great value proposition to the banks (which I believe that they have been and will continue to do), the great amount of uncertainty in our financial markets is really the X factor as this moment. I would also argue that if it wasn't for this fact, we'd even see less stalling of projects on the lower end (at least in the city), given the continuously tight supply.

nequidnimis · #**183** Posted: **Mar 19, 2008, 4:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by roadwarrior

The insatiable demand on the high-end in SF.

To quote another site: http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2...n.html#c380470
"'Agents have been threatened with lawsuits for simply trying to find someone on craigslist to take over their contract. ORH claims they’re prohibited from doing that because they don’t yet actually own the unit they’re attempting to sell. That’s why so many of the CL ads are posted without names attached.' Looks like there may be some credibility in that. 2 days ago, there were 18 Craigslist ads from desperate One Rincon contract holder looking to bail. Today I only see 7. So unless there were a mad rush to buy those contracts, someone or something is taking down these ads.
Rentals are another story. I still see 35+ units for rent a ORH. Starting to look like a bloodbath as investors try to undermine each other..."

I find insatiable demand is often the sign of a bubble.

BTinSF · #**184** Posted: **Mar 19, 2008, 5:36 AM**

^^^This isn't the place to discuss One Rincon Hill, but given the importance of the building, I thought the units were underpriced when they were offered and expected a lot of the buyers were hoping to flip them--which I believe, if they can avoid the legal pitfalls, they'll be able to do successfully. What we are seeing is just evidence of that IMHO.

Insatiable demand can be a sign of a bubble but only if it is unusual. I haven't seen any demand in San Francisco that's unusual--new condo buildings have been selling out rather rapidly as long as I've lived in San Francisco (26 years) and the real evidence of the strength of the demand is the prevalence of TICS which can be a legal quagmire and wouldn't exist if there were enough condos on the market.

briankendall · #**185** Posted: **Mar 19, 2008, 7:32 AM**

California continues to add 500,000++ people a year from legal, illegal immigration and a high birth rate among latinos especially. That is a higher population growth rate than India or Bangladesh. This extreme growth rate alone will continue to fuel demand. What's happening is a blip in California at least.

peanut gallery · #**186** Posted: **Aug 27, 2008, 5:18 AM**

I hate to resurrect this thread and get anyone's hopes up, but Cannon is supposed to be onsite this week and next, requiring all the street parking along Harrison. Couldn't see signs of activity today, but I'll keep checking.

CityKid · #**187** Posted: **Aug 27, 2008, 10:36 PM**

^^^ Uh, oh. Don't want to get my hopes up, but I can't help but be excited.

peanut gallery · #**188** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 4:00 AM**

Hmmm....

rocketman_95046 · #**189** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 6:22 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut gallery

Hmmm....

That can't be bad news...

Reminiscence · #**190** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 8:21 AM**

Oh my goodness, human activity! Hopefully this is finally the start of something significant.

livin' in the city · #**191** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 1:44 PM**

Can anybody ID that equipment? Looks like maybe soils test?

peanut gallery · #**192** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 2:13 PM**

That's what I think: soil testing.

briankendall · #**193** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 7:43 PM**

I recently catered an event at the architects office, there were many sheets of plans for this project lying around in the copy room so it was clear people were working on the projects. When I asked someone if it was moving forward they said "yes" but didn't want to elaborate.

peanut gallery · #**194** Posted: **Aug 28, 2008, 7:53 PM**

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

If they were soil testing, they wrapped up their work very quickly. Truck is gone and so are the no parking signs. Nothing left but a couple of spots where you can see they were working.

peanut gallery · #**195** Posted: **Sep 22, 2008, 8:58 PM**

More work is happening onsite today. There is excavation equipment digging a sizable hole in the northeast corner and the no parking signs indicate they will be here until mid-October. I'll post a photo or two this evening.

peanut gallery · #**196** Posted: **Sep 23, 2008, 5:08 AM**

Here's the photo:

Not a lot of activity, but it's something.

Reminiscence · #**197** Posted: **Sep 23, 2008, 5:18 AM**

Good to see increasing activity going on here, its a push in the right direction. I do agree its not a lot, but look what happened, and how fast it happened, at 535 Mish. By this time next month we could have a huge hole in the ground for the foundation

San Frangelino · #**198** Posted: **Sep 23, 2008, 2:22 PM**

This couldn't mean anything else other than they are planning to construct the tower, could it?

peanut gallery · #**199** Posted: **Sep 23, 2008, 8:50 PM**

I can't imagine why they would bother paying for soil testing and whatever they are currently doing if they weren't reasonably certain they'll proceed with construction soon. With capital becoming more and more difficult to come by, it's hard to believe anything is certain. But it's a promising sign.

They still haven't done anything visible at their construction/sales office across the street. I expect to see activity over there before they start real work.

roadwarrior · #**200** Posted: **Sep 23, 2008, 11:34 PM**

Maybe they've decided to turn it into a park.

Seriously, this would be the oddest time for them to start construction. I wouldn't complain, but it just perplexes me.