Originally Posted by caltrane74
Oil and Gas are playing a big role in redistributing wealth in the country. (Never mind the fact that GDP is where it's produced, not whom that GDP is owned by ) Also, Ontario still gets the Majority of immigrants into Canada. Add the two together and it looks like this will be the demographic fact of life for the next generation. Once, the baby boomers start dying off in the next 20 or so years from now, you might see some equalization/ or balance in the falling GDP per capita numbers for Ontario relative to the rest of the country.
Hmmm, not sure I agree with your perspective on this. First off, O&G - and commodities in general - are not the only driver of this since the role they are playing a smaller overal share in the BC/AB/SK economies. As a percentage of their GDP, the impact of O&G has actually been dropping the past 20 years.
Secondly, what do you mean by "whom the GDP is owned by"? I think you are confusing the fact that if Teachers owns a company in the oil patch that by inference the Ontario government can tax that GDP which belongs to that company? Economies don't work that way. If they did a good chunk of Ontario's GDP would belong outside the country since a good chuck of the economy is foreign owned, branch plants.
The driver for GDP wrt to a government is the impact it plays on a government's ability for taxation. As the per capita GDP drops in Ontario wrt Canada as a whole, it means that Ontario tax rates will be impacted accordingly meaning that while all those baby boomers in Ontario start dying off over the next 20 years (likely 30 BTW) they will be putting an incredible burden on the Ontario health care system driving costs through the roof. Since health care is the biggest line item in the Ontario budget, this too will either drive overall taxation rates in Ontario up or impact the ability to provide other services. Lastly, this does impact all the other provinces since this may keep Ontario below the national average line wrt equalization payments and thus on the recieving end. Since equalization is capped, whatever Ontario gets is money the tradiational have-nots don't get.
Again, I am not saying it is doom and gloom for Ontario, rather that this could have significant impacts on all Canadians.
BTW, your statement "Ontario still gets the Majority of immigrants into Canada.
" is not true at all. Since the mid-2000's, Ontario has been getting less than 50% all immigrants to Canada, with an overall downward trend. Last quarter Ontario took in 41% of all immigrants to Canada (links to SC
), which has been typical for the past 8 quarters. Ontario used to get the majority and while it still gets the lion share, the majority now land elsewhere in Canada - and given that this is longstanding trend, I don't see it changing anytime soon.