Chicago Economic & Finance News - Page 77

Nowhereman1280 · #**1521** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 3:42 PM**

^^^ It's a shame Lawfin chooses to be such a frequent contributer, but makes everything he says a personal attack. This has nothing to do with "bruised egos" and everything to do with you making dumbass statements like calling Milwaukee an international backwater based on some stupid list you saw. Does everything you post have to be trolling? I guess you feel the need to insult other people because you are so insecure about your own ego. Can we ban you already?

For the millionth time, those numbers for Detroit + St Louis are not representative of actual production, but rather are "point of sale" numbers inflated by the presence of multinational firms like Emerson Electric or GM in DET and STL that don't actually produce much of their total (or anything) in those cities. For example, Emerson Electric alone probably accounts for around half of the "exports" listed for STL as they are a $20-something billion company which does a good share of their business overseas. Meanwhile Milwaukee's numbers are composed of a whole slough of companies in a variety of industries, not based on one huge HQ or a single industry.

I would know far better than you considering I act as a consultant to one of these massive Multinationals in one of these two cities (won't say which to keep it at least somewhat confidential) and represent their real estate interests all over the world. And I can tell you that though the company is HQ'd in DET or STL NONE of their actual production is there, yet all of their sales count towards the numbers you just posted. Meanwhile this same company has a massive manufacturing presence in the Milwaukee area where all of the products for one of their most widely known consumer brands sold in the Western Hemisphere are manufactured. Then again, I don't know what I'm talking about, I only negotiated the lease...

Then again STL metro is 1.86 times larger than Milwaukee, yet only has 56% more exports according to your measure. Detroit is 2.86 times larger than Milwaukee metro, yet only has about 2.6 times as many exports. Looks like Milwaukee still out performs both cities even according to your source for a city of it's size.

-----------------------

Also, as a side note, it's funny that while Detroit and STL have stagnated and collapsed, Lawfin's own source points out that Milwaukee's numbers have grown at many times the rate of STL or DET over the past 10 years.

lawfin · #**1522** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 6:44 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

^^^ It's a shame Lawfin chooses to be such a frequent contributer, but makes everything he says a personal attack. This has nothing to do with "bruised egos" and everything to do with you making dumbass statements like calling Milwaukee an international backwater based on some stupid list you saw. Does everything you post have to be trolling? I guess you feel the need to insult other people because you are so insecure about your own ego. Can we ban you already?

For the millionth time, those numbers for Detroit + St Louis are not representative of actual production, but rather are "point of sale" numbers inflated by the presence of multinational firms like Emerson Electric or GM in DET and STL that don't actually produce much of their total (or anything) in those cities. For example, Emerson Electric alone probably accounts for around half of the "exports" listed for STL as they are a $20-something billion company which does a good share of their business overseas. Meanwhile Milwaukee's numbers are composed of a whole slough of companies in a variety of industries, not based on one huge HQ or a single industry.

I would know far better than you considering I act as a consultant to one of these massive Multinationals in one of these two cities (won't say which to keep it at least somewhat confidential) and represent their real estate interests all over the world. And I can tell you that though the company is HQ'd in DET or STL NONE of their actual production is there, yet all of their sales count towards the numbers you just posted. Meanwhile this same company has a massive manufacturing presence in the Milwaukee area where all of the products for one of their most widely known consumer brands sold in the Western Hemisphere are manufactured. Then again, I don't know what I'm talking about, I only negotiated the lease...

Then again STL metro is 1.86 times larger than Milwaukee, yet only has 56% more exports according to your measure. Detroit is 2.86 times larger than Milwaukee metro, yet only has about 2.6 times as many exports. Looks like Milwaukee still out performs both cities even according to your source for a city of it's size.

-----------------------

Also, as a side note, it's funny that while Detroit and STL have stagnated and collapsed, Lawfin's own source points out that Milwaukee's numbers have grown at many times the rate of STL or DET over the past 10 years.

See #1 & #2; your M.O. change the terms of the argument and if that does not work change the argument.
When did this argument become about rates or the ratio of the the size of the export economy to the size of the metro area? And then you turn around and use the underlying date from the "stupid" list in your argument.
Your emotional laden opinion is of course the only correct one; Data and evidence be damned. Nowhereman types and it is thus!

The anecdote versus hard data is the kicker...."I know better because well.......my dad is bigger than your dad...nah nah" Great argument strategy.

And you liberally throw around terms like dumbass or stupid or absurd and I use the relatively anodyne term "brusied homerism" which of course make you go ape; and then you engage in dime store psycho analysis and I need to be banned? Some one here is really, really delicate.

Bottom line Milw is a minor player on the intl / export market esp as I said initially vis-a-vis detroit; I am not the only one here you realizes it. The only one who does not is you; your tantrums don't change that one iota. If you disagree with me calling milw an intl / export backwater from some bruised sense of loyalty too bad. If I termed it a minor player would that assuage your pain?

the urban politician · #**1523** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 7:28 PM**

^ Thanks for your numbers, Lawfin, and thanks for the correction on the Chicago-Detroit matchup. I had seen a stat in the book Global Chicago a few years ago that showed Detroit's export volume (in dollars) exceeding that of Chicago, but that clearly is far from the case.

Your numbers make more sense. Interestingly, going by the data from that site you linked, Metro Chicago is really outperforming both NY and LA in metro export growth from 2009-2010, at 11.8% vs 8.9% and 9.0%, respectively. This is different from 2003-2008, when all 3 metros were pretty similar; this suggests that in the past 2 years or so, metro Chicago's exports have gone into a much steeper recovery/hypergrowth mode as compared to its coastal counterparts. Also, depending on what numbers to use for the respective metros (MSA vs CSA) Chicago could also be a much more successful exporter per capita, but I'm not too sure about the last one.

Midwest cities, as Bill Testa has discussed at the Chicago Fed, are all rebounding at a pretty good clip. Detroit from 2009-2010 was at around 14%. Northern California & the big metros of Texas are also doing about as well as the midwest (maybe just a hair lower), but Southern Cali and the east coast are rebounding at a much slower rate.

Milwaukee is the 4th largest exporter in the midwest (after Chicago, Detroit, and Indianapolis). Not bad, making it around the 28th largest exporter in America.

Sorry Nowhereman, but I have to agree with Lawfin on this one. Milwaukee is a great town and probably has a lot more going on for it than Detroit or perhaps even St Louis do from an urban infill perspective, but as an international player it seems to barely register.

the urban politician · #**1524** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 7:40 PM**

Great day for announced VC funding of local tech companies:

SingleHop nets $27M in VC funding

BrightTag snags $15 million in VC funds

lawfin · #**1525** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 7:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Thanks for your numbers, Lawfin, and thanks for the correction on the Chicago-Detroit matchup. I had seen a stat in the book Global Chicago a few years ago that showed Detroit's export volume (in dollars) exceeding that of Chicago, but that clearly is far from the case.

Your numbers make more sense. Interestingly, going by the data from that site you linked, Metro Chicago is really outperforming both NY and LA in metro export growth from 2009-2010, at 11.8% vs 8.9% and 9.0%, respectively. This is different from 2003-2008, when all 3 metros were pretty similar; this suggests that in the past 2 years or so, metro Chicago's exports have gone into a much steeper recovery/hypergrowth mode as compared to its coastal counterparts. Also, depending on what numbers to use for the respective metros (MSA vs CSA) Chicago could also be a much more successful exporter per capita, but I'm not too sure about the last one.

Midwest cities, as Bill Testa has discussed at the Chicago Fed, are all rebounding at a pretty good clip. Detroit from 2009-2010 was at around 14%. Northern California & the big metros of Texas are also doing about as well as the midwest (maybe just a hair lower), but Southern Cali and the east coast are rebounding at a much slower rate.

Milwaukee is the 4th largest exporter in the midwest (after Chicago, Detroit, and Indianapolis). Not bad, making it around the 28th largest exporter in America.

Sorry Nowhereman, but I have to agree with Lawfin on this one. Milwaukee is a great town and probably has a lot more going on for it than Detroit or perhaps even St Louis do from an urban infill perspective, but as an international player it seems to barely register.

You are welcome TUP. Always enjoy a heated discussion especially if it is data driven. Not to belabor a point but according to the numbers sourced Milw falls also behind Minny, cincy, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh in the Midwest. So it is around 7th or 8th in Midwest in terms of export size. Maybe testa ......love that blog.....has different numbers I am not sure.
W He may be focusing on the 7th Fed district which is a subset of the Midwest.

the urban politician · #**1526** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 8:03 PM**

1871 picking up long-term tenants
April 25, 2012

By John Pletz

Quote:

The tech startup hub in the Merchandise Mart called 1871 is lining up venture funds, universities and other long-term tenants along with young companies.

Venture funds I2A, Sandbox Ventures, New World Ventures, the fund backed by J.B. Pritzker who helped launch 1871, and Hyde Park Angels will lease office space in the building. OCA Ventures and Lightbank will sponsor conference rooms in the facility.

University of Chicago, Northwestern University, Illinois Institute of Technology and University of Illinois also will have offices in the space. Excelerate Labs, the startup accelerator, also says it's leaving a loft in Greektown for 1871. The Illinois Science and Technology Coalition and Chicagoland Entrepreneurial Center, which is managing the programs at the facility, also are moving in.

“We've got two of the top five business schools in the country; a top design school and a top computer-science program – they'll all be in one hallway,” says Kevin Willer, CEO of the Chicagoland Entrepreneurial Center.

lawfin · #**1527** Posted: **Apr 25, 2012, 8:58 PM**

TUP re the confusion between the Detroit numbers and the Chicago numbers it seems you may have been thinking of a testa post dealing with durable goods exports from 2005-06 time frame. In this field Detroit seems to lead Chicago primarily driven by auto exports etc. Chicago in contrast to Detroit is much more of a high value added service provider. Hence the difference.

Centropolis · #**1528** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 4:42 AM**

Outtakes from type A hell.

Centropolis · #**1529** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 6:23 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Milwaukee is the 4th largest exporter in the midwest (after Chicago, Detroit, and Indianapolis). Not bad, making it around the 28th largest exporter in America.

I think you mean to say that Milwaukee is the 4th largest exporter inside the Chicago fed, not the midwest. Although St. Louis has taken a massive blow loosing 3 massive auto manufacturing plants within the last 5-6 years coinciding with the recession, and was until just a few years ago a HUGE car manufacturing city (original home of the Corvette plant) and was Detroits rival with our own brands in the early days...it's not been a strength lately and we have quietly taken that brutal body blow (obviously Detroit and Cleveland get a lot of attention).

It appears that Milwaukee's industrial sector hasn't been as directly dependent on decisions made in Detroit, which I would assume to be a good thing. It's my understanding that there is a lot of precision-type manufacturing there, which is great.

Nowhereman1280 · #**1530** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 3:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawfin

See #1 & #2; your M.O. change the terms of the argument and if that does not work change the argument.
When did this argument become about rates or the ratio of the the size of the export economy to the size of the metro area? And then you turn around and use the underlying date from the "stupid" list in your argument.
Your emotional laden opinion is of course the only correct one; Data and evidence be damned. Nowhereman types and it is thus!

Let's look at my original statement:

"Im not sure i follow, but i dont think Milwaukee is any less globally important or integrated than Detroit or STL. I mean Milwaukees manufacturing base is probably in better shape than Detroits or STLs and can hardly be considered globally disconnected"

So I said I don't think Milwaukee is less important, pray tell where I changed my argument? When did I start saying "Milwaukee has more exports" or "Milwaukee has a bigger economy"? I didn't. You are the one who keeps shifting the argument from what was a simple point about your ill-chosen and inaccurate words to some rant about what city has the most total exports.

Additionally I said "Milwaukee's industrial base is probably in better shape than DET or STL" which is pretty much unquestionably true when you look at the growth numbers you posted or the widespread plant closings in those two cities.

So sorry, I know it's hard for you to stop projecting your own issues on other people, but you are the one who is changing the argument.

Quote:

The anecdote versus hard data is the kicker...."I know better because well.......my dad is bigger than your dad...nah nah" Great argument strategy.

Actually it's called a qualified appeal to authority and is a completely legitimate argument. Lets see we have an intellectual property attorney arguing with a corporate real estate consultant (who represents a major Midwestern industrial conglomerate) over the state of industrial bases and global integration in Midwestern cities. I wonder which one is actually qualified to discuss such things??? And, as I said above, your "hard data" is a stupid list that is not relevant to what I said. I never said "the total value of exports from Milwaukee is greater than Detroit" I said Milwaukee is just as important and integrated to the global economy.

Quote:

Bottom line Milw is a minor player on the intl / export market esp as I said initially vis-a-vis detroit; I am not the only one here you realizes it. The only one who does not is you; your tantrums don't change that one iota. If you disagree with me calling milw an intl / export backwater from some bruised sense of loyalty too bad. If I termed it a minor player would that assuage your pain?

No, you initially said Milwaukee is a "global backwater" which is categorically inaccurate. Even saying it is a "Minor player" while implying STL is a major player based on a $4 billion difference in exports is silly. I'm not making any statements about total export figures, I'm arguing that Milwaukee is just as globally relevant as STL and, for its size, not too far off from Detroit.

lawfin · #**1531** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 3:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

Let's look at my original statement:

"Im not sure i follow, but i dont think Milwaukee is any less globally important or integrated than Detroit or STL. I mean Milwaukees manufacturing base is probably in better shape than Detroits or STLs and can hardly be considered globally disconnected"

So I said I don't think Milwaukee is less important, pray tell where I changed my argument? When did I start saying "Milwaukee has more exports" or "Milwaukee has a bigger economy"? I didn't. You are the one who keeps shifting the argument from what was a simple point about your ill-chosen and inaccurate words to some rant about what city has the most total exports.

Additionally I said "Milwaukee's industrial base is probably in better shape than DET or STL" which is pretty much unquestionably true when you look at the growth numbers you posted or the widespread plant closings in those two cities.

So sorry, I know it's hard for you to stop projecting your own issues on other people, but you are the one who is changing the argument.

Actually it's called a qualified appeal to authority and is a completely legitimate argument. Lets see we have an intellectual property attorney arguing with a corporate real estate consultant (who represents a major Midwestern industrial conglomerate) over the state of industrial bases and global integration in Midwestern cities. I wonder which one is actually qualified to discuss such things??? And, as I said above, your "hard data" is a stupid list that is not relevant to what I said. I never said "the total value of exports from Milwaukee is greater than Detroit" I said Milwaukee is just as important and integrated to the global economy.

No, you initially said Milwaukee is a "global backwater" which is categorically inaccurate. Even saying it is a "Minor player" while implying STL is a major player based on a $4 billion difference in exports is silly. I'm not making any statements about total export figures, I'm arguing that Milwaukee is just as globally relevant as STL and, for its size, not too far off from Detroit.

You lost the argument; you are wrong. Deal with it and move on. The numbers are the numbers. I am done here.

lawfin · #**1532** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 3:59 PM**

(Crain's) — Motorola Solutions Inc. plans to move 100 employees into the Santa Fe Building at 224. S. Michigan Ave., part of a plan announced last year to bring 400 jobs to the city of Chicago.

The Schaumburg-based seller of police radios and bar-code scanners has signed a letter of intent to lease 24,000 square feet on the seventh floor for 10 years, spokesman Nick Sweers said. The company hasn't yet determined what types of employees will move into the space, likely

Read more: http://www.chicagorealestatedaily.co...#ixzz1tAB5EIKs
Stay up-to-date on Chicago real estate with our free, daily e-newsletter

Steely Dan · #**1533** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 4:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nowhereman1280

I never said "the total value of exports from Milwaukee is greater than Detroit", I said Milwaukee is just as important and integrated to the global economy.

I'm arguing that Milwaukee is, for its size, not too far off from Detroit.

you seem to be talking out of both sides of your mouth. "just as important" and "for its size, not too far off" are not the same thing.

in your view, is milwaukee "just as important and integrated to the global economy" as detroit or is milwaukee "for its size, not too far off from Detroit"?

some people might agree with the latter statement, but almost no one outside of a brew-city booster club is going to agree with the former, which i why urb and i jumped on what you initially said.

lawfin · #**1534** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 4:04 PM**

(Crain's) — Andrew Mason acknowledged to Groupon Inc.'s staff yesterday what the stock price has been telling them for weeks: the company's short-lived honeymoon is over.
The company "doesn't have any margin for error," Mr. Mason told employees during a regular town-hall meeting, according to The Wall Street Journal, which said it watched the closed-door meeting via Webcast.
Groupon shares were pummeled after it revised its financials March 30 and revealed material weaknesses in its accounting, the latest stumble for the four-year-old company after a rocky IPO process last year. The stock, trading at about $12 per share today, hit a low of $11.02 on April 20. It went public at $20 per share.
More on Andrew Mason:
Has Mason lost it?
Editorial: If Mason is to lead, he needs a lieutenant
Mr. Mason, at times swigging a beer, according to the report, said the accounting snafu was the "latest in a string of just us making an example of how bad we are at being a public company. We have to get good at this." He also said the company has to focus on "not taking stupid risks."

Read more: http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...#ixzz1tAC8Udy2
Stay on top of Chicago business with our free daily e-newsletters

------------------------------------------

I for one have always been skeptical and incredulous at Groupons early success

lawfin · #**1535** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 4:14 PM**

http://bcove.me/146yyulq

These assholes. Fuck the Cubs and the Ricketts these assholes were very large tea-bagger funders during the run up in 2009-2010 sceaming about socialism and welfare and here they are with their hand out at the public trough. Corporate welfare whores.

Let him threaten to leave....rightwing asshat

http://www.clubhousecancer.com/2010/...rty-donor.html
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2010/11/...play-hardball/
http://susanbarsy.com/tag/tom-ricketts/

lawfin · #**1536** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 4:17 PM**

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...,3179522.story

United Continental Holdings Inc., which operates United Airlines, reported a first-quarter loss, as it absorbed more than half a billion dollars worth of increased fuel costs and converted to a new reservation system. Still, it still beat Wall Street expectations.

United reported a first-quarter loss of $448 million, or $1.36 per share, compared with a loss of $213 million, or 65 cents per share, in the first quarter of 2011. Excluding $162 million in special charges, primarily costs related to integrating United and Continental airlines, the loss was $286 million or 87 cents per share. Analysts were expecting a loss of 96 cents per share.

First-quarter consolidated fuel expense increased 20.8 percent, or $557 million, year-over-year.

"This was a difficult quarter, but we made significant progress with our integration, and we're now able to serve our customers as a single airline," CEO Jeff Smisek said in a statement. "We are now on the steep back slope of our integration and can look forward to delivering more benefits from the merger in the remainder of the year."

the urban politician · #**1537** Posted: **Apr 26, 2012, 6:43 PM**

Yet another sign that pension liabilities are evolving into a crisis for the city

Moody's lowers outlook on city's main credit rating

Reverberation · #**1538** Posted: **Apr 27, 2012, 12:32 AM**

Quote:

Moody's lowers outlook on city's main credit rating

(Crain's) — Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook on Chicago's main credit rating to negative from stable, citing the lack of any progress so far on pension reform.

The New York-based credit rating agency maintained Chicago's solid investment-grade credit rating of Aa3 for now, but warned that "should pension pressures continue to escalate absent a specific plan of reform, the city's credit quality will likely weaken."

Another big Wall Street credit rater, Standard & Poor's Rating Services, maintained its stable outlook on Chicago's finances and affirmed its A+ credit rating on the city's general obligation debt, as did Fitch Ratings, also of New York.

"In our opinion, the city's rating could improve if it is able to show a track record of structurally balanced financial operations and substantially improve its pension systems' funded levels," said S&P in a report yesterday on the city's upcoming sale of $541 million in general obligation bonds. "We could lower the rating if the city's financial position suffers due to a widening budget gap or if the funding level of its pension systems deteriorates further."

Source:
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...-credit-rating

ardecila · #**1539** Posted: **Apr 27, 2012, 1:02 AM**

And.... now we see what scared the aldermen enough to rubber stamp the infrastructure bank. The City That Works just became the city that has to pay high interest rates on every bond issue.

The pension problem is substantial, and it's not gonna get better, so it makes a lot of sense to create an entirely separate vehicle to finance infrastructure projects that isn't dependent on the overall fiscal situation of city government. Hopefully the infrastructure will generate growth that can help pull Chicago out of the hole, because there's very little chance the city's obligations will ever be dismissed in court or reduced in arbitration in a state that's so union-friendly.

The downside is that a lot of the Infrastructure Trust will not be exciting new growth in city facilities, transit lines, and utilities, but rather a re-packaging of existing functions (typical Rahm) so that the city's funds can go towards this pension black hole. For example, instead of regular park maintenance, the Park District might get regular "capital improvement grants" from the Infrastructure Trust that would be used for maintenance, and a token capital investment (new benches).

Nowhereman1280 · #**1540** Posted: **Apr 27, 2012, 7:19 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

you seem to be talking out of both sides of your mouth. "just as important" and "for its size, not too far off" are not the same thing.

in your view, is milwaukee "just as important and integrated to the global economy" as detroit or is milwaukee "for its size, not too far off from Detroit"?

some people might agree with the latter statement, but almost no one outside of a brew-city booster club is going to agree with the former, which i why urb and i jumped on what you initially said.

Or, maybe, just maybe, I don't think that the "export volume" numbers posted are the end all, be all of determining a city's integration with the global economy? Shocking, isn't it, that someone might suggest a city that is completely reliant on one industry should get less credit for being globally connected than a city with many different industries. Like I've been saying the whole time, Detroit only gets those export numbers from a single, chaos ridden, industry while Milwaukee is connected in many different industries. If you are really going to measure "importance and integration" I would argue that you get points against you for being do reliant on one sector. Sure Detroit has a ton of auto-related connections, but that just means they are very integrated with the global auto industry, not necessarily the entire global economy.

Seriously though, who actually measures global integration and connection by raw export value? Maybe most people wouldn't agree with me that Milwaukee is as integrated as DET, but if they are basing that opinion off of the total value of exports then they are morons. That's like saying Luxembourg is not as wealthy as the United States because our Total GDP is larger despite the fact that Luxembourg's per capita GDP blows us out of the water... Actually it's not even like that because at least GDP directly measures wealth, exports don't direct measure "integration" at all...