PHILADELPHIA | The Development Thread VIII

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by relnahe

NO!

Only dumb, ill informed rumors. Wegmans avoids urban areas like a plague. Not only that but they're getting away from inner-ring older suburbs too. Trust me, I've lived in Rochester, NY where Wegmans is from and they have closed all but 1 of the Wegmans in that city. They have also closed some just outside the city limits as well.

Their own loss then. If they choose to ignore expanding markets and instead concentrate on a shrinking market (which the exurbs, in the long run, are) then overbuilding and bankruptcy are the inevitable result.

However, Rochester is a much smaller city, with a much more limited downtown, much lower on the urban hierarchy and thus further behind in the urban-change queue according to patterns in urban change, than New York or D.C., Philadelphia or Chicago. I wouldn't be surprised if a market like Rochester continues to sink even as the bigger markets stabilize and grow. No company, no matter how anti-urban its reputation, can afford to ignore these macro trends to survive. Wal-Mart is probably the best tea-leaf reader among large retailers, and they are rolling out a plan to invest heavily in urban areas (although what they deem "urban" still seems to me a tad too suburban).

[tower]

Wegman's will not go bankrupt by avoiding urban areas. That place is like the Disneyland of supermarkets.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by tower

Wegman's will not go bankrupt by avoiding urban areas. That place is like the Disneyland of supermarkets.

Never underestimate the power of competition.

[tower]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Never underestimate the power of competition.

More "affluent" suburbs do not have easy access to an array convenience stores and shopping centers, which is why they take all those missing aspects and combine it into one huge mega market. Take Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, and mix it together with beer. (Listing all of the features of a Wegman's may cause me to have a seizure)

[Ninjawho]

So Comcast has gotten the ok from the FCC to take over NBCU.

what, if any, development do you think this will spur for Philly?

[blorkishdork]

I can't imagine too much. Comcast keeps stating that media will be in New York and cable and internet will be in Philly. So maybe a few things will pop up like marketing companies, accountants, etc. but nothing too dramatic will come of this. Maybe 2 penn. plaza if we're lucky. But who knows maybe Comcast is lying and they end up moving most of the offices to philly (doubtful). But one can home right? My main hope is that the revenue generated will be taxed by the city so we can get a little more money to lower taxes. But I'm not sure how all the tax structure works.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by tower

More "affluent" suburbs do not have easy access to an array convenience stores and shopping centers, which is why they take all those missing aspects and combine it into one huge mega market. Take Whole Foods and Trader Joe's, and mix it together with beer. (Listing all of the features of a Wegman's may cause me to have a seizure)

The only permanence is change. Unless Wegman's can change with the times, as times change, it will go. Don't forget that even as late as 1950 pretty much everyone assumed the big Class I railroads (Pennsylvania, B&O, Reading, New York Central, Great Northern, Santa Fe, Southern Pacific, and so on ad infinitum) were pretty immutable. Sixty years later, only the Union Pacific is left.

So don't make the mistake of assuming that because something seems immutable, it is. Perception is not always reality.

Originally Posted by Ninjawho

So Comcast has gotten the ok from the FCC to take over NBCU.

what, if any, development do you think this will spur for Philly?

In the short and medium runs? Not much. Maybe 2 Pennsylvania Plaza as a subsidiary HQ. Return of NBC 10 to Center City, maybe. But most NBC functions will probably stay in New York, for the time being.

In the long run? Sooner or later Comcast will want to cut costs, and downsizing its (via NBC) New York presence is a great way to cut costs. Besides, Comcast clearly likes centralization. (Why else would they build a nice shiny new tower when they could have located in the suburbs somewhere?) So while we may not see many changes on the exterior, substantive changes such as the moving of production and studio facilities to Philadelphia by 2020 may be feasible. In the long term, this merger will greatly enrich our economy, and make Philadelphia a mecca for creative types.

[Skintreesnail]

Originally Posted by Ninjawho

So Comcast has gotten the ok from the FCC to take over NBCU.

what, if any, development do you think this will spur for Philly?

I think the Disney hole will be transformed into a Universal Studios Philly theme park. And a Target.

[tower]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

The only permanence is change. Unless Wegman's can change with the times, as times change, it will go. Don't forget that even as late as 1950 pretty much everyone assumed the big Class I railroads (Pennsylvania, B&O, Reading, New York Central, Great Northern, Santa Fe, Southern Pacific, and so on ad infinitum) were pretty immutable. Sixty years later, only the Union Pacific is left.

So don't make the mistake of assuming that because something seems immutable, it is. Perception is not always reality.

Wegman's has been alive and well since 1916 and continues to expand. They also they stay within the confines of the Northeastern United States. I don't think railroads are a fair comparison, and it is utterly awful that the railroads decreased dramatically, which greatly damaged our country. If Wegman's were to collapse against the test of time, people would simply move on to other shopping venues.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by tower

If Wegman's were to collapse against the test of time, people would simply move on to other shopping venues.

Precisely.

So far Wegman's strategy has been working well, but if it does not shift its strategy with changing times and changing expectations, it will fail. Think about the history of department stores in the U.S. for a minute, and see what I'm driving at. I am sure that internal documents there are suggesting their expansion-and-branding plans have not met the success, since 2008, they once did. Now while they're currently probably thinking the economy is why, we know that their primary direction of expansion was into that market whose collapse precipitated the recession--in other words, right into the maw of the beast. They do have to reconsider their position, and their measured approach allows them to restructure from a position of great strength. But make no mistake, their home market's strength reached its apex in the 2000s--it is, in the long run, bound to decline from now on. (Pressures such as the drying up of the intense amounts of resources needed to sustain our current economy will lead to the disinvestment of the most resource-intensive areas in favor of those areas where resource usage goes further.)

[PhillyRising]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Never underestimate the power of competition.

Wegmans is putting everyone else out of business wherever they open a store. People flock to Wegmans like moths to a flame.

I think a small scale Wegmans with an emphasis on the prepared food market would work for them in an urban location.

[tower]

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

Precisely.

So far Wegman's strategy has been working well, but if it does not shift its strategy with changing times and changing expectations, it will fail. Think about the history of department stores in the U.S. for a minute, and see what I'm driving at. I am sure that internal documents there are suggesting their expansion-and-branding plans have not met the success, since 2008, they once did. Now while they're currently probably thinking the economy is why, we know that their primary direction of expansion was into that market whose collapse precipitated the recession--in other words, right into the maw of the beast. They do have to reconsider their position, and their measured approach allows them to restructure from a position of great strength. But make no mistake, their home market's strength reached its apex in the 2000s--it is, in the long run, bound to decline from now on. (Pressures such as the drying up of the intense amounts of resources needed to sustain our current economy will lead to the disinvestment of the most resource-intensive areas in favor of those areas where resource usage goes further.)

Well, until another supermarket can be as completely [redacted] awesome as Wegman's, it isn't going anywhere at this point in time. I honestly don't even know how they sustain themselves financially while maintaining product excellence. I sound like a commercial but it's true. The place is serious mammories.

Acmes and Giants (etc) have shut down in anticipation of the impending Wegman's. Once they establish customers they happily come back like a kid in a candy store. The premise does turn some people off though, especially senior citizens who become overwhelmed and don't know where to go because the supermarkets are so huge. It does not cater to everyone although it tries to. As is, they are the most impressive super market with the most impressive selection; anywhere. When they create another store they are taking a gamble and it pays off. They go where the money is, and the people come. Wegman's locations have no direct competition. If they miserably fail then they would have become much too large. As long as they have resources they will likely continue attracting enough people to stay in good business, unless they choose a location where people don't buy the whole idea and would rather stick to what they are used to.

[tower]

Originally Posted by PhillyRising

I think a small scale Wegmans with an emphasis on the prepared food market would work for them in an urban location.

Yeah, Wegman's could hurt a city neighborhood(s) if it was full scale. People may just go to that one place for everything. (except for cheesesteaks they don't have those)

[We Got Five]

So Comcast has gotten the ok from the FCC to take over NBCU.

what, if any, development do you think this will spur for Philly?

None.

Don't expect to see Football Night in America broadcast from the Comcast Center. As pathetic as it may sound - I don't think our local government cares one way or another what happens to Comcast. We act like a "small town" and leave big business to places like Chicago and New York. This sentiment is getting old and tiresome.

On Another note - Wegman's in center city would be a gold mine and could create a tidal wave of growth at Broad & Washington.

[cubanChris]

Thats a little negative haha.

While I don't think there will be much in the form of sexy spin-offs, I do think its likely the things that blorkishdork mentioned will happen... Things like expanded or new marketing/PR agencies, re-concentration of their accounting services here and other service pieces that could actually bea fairly healthy boon of stable jobs to the city.

If the city can stop dancing around the issue of the awful biz taxes (and just about every other tough issue) than there would probably be significantly more.

[pwp]

Originally Posted by We Got Five

On Another note - Wegman's in center city would be a gold mine and could create a tidal wave of growth at Broad & Washington.

I agree. And personally, I don't see why or how Wegman's would avoid inner-city markets. Corporations follow capital. I can't imagine that their ideology would interfere with their profit motive.

[thenbagis]

Wegmans - Corporations are like people, some make smart decisions, some make dumb decisions. Walmart, a decidedly a rural & suburb geared store, is trying to open in NYC and has opened a store in Atlanta (and I'm sure other cities, too). Wawa, a store that seems ideal for city life, is moving to a gas-only suburb life. Wegmans will do whatever they (not us) think is "smart."

Comcast & NBC - The only near term changes to Philly... If you are a Comcast subscriber, expect a sudden interest in your choice to us Bitorrent or other file-sharing programs... now that they own a movie studio.

Otherwise the brand of NY or LA will trump Philly... "Live from New York" is just more valuable than "Live from Philadelphia" unfortunately. Sadly, there isn't a whole lot that can change that, certain cities (NY, LA, London, Tokyo, Rome, etc) simply have more name recognition than... Philadelphia.

[bryson662001]

Originally Posted by tower

. The premise does turn some people off though, especially senior citizens who become overwhelmed and don't know where to go because the supermarkets are so huge. It does not cater to everyone although it tries to. As is, they are the most impressive super market with the most impressive selection; anywhere. When they create another store they are taking a gamble and it pays off. They go where the money is, and the people come. Wegman's locations have no direct competition.

When I'm in jersey I always bypass Wegman's in favor of the Shoprites. In spite of it's huge size it actually has less selection than Shoprite except for the food hall which isn't that great either. I would only go to Wegman's to splurge on a special cut of meat for a special occasion, or if I'm in the mood to sample the chinese buffet table. I notice you single out Acme and Giant as their competition. If those are your choices no wonder you think Wegman's is great.

[We Got Five]

If the city can stop dancing around the issue of the awful biz taxes (and just about every other tough issue) than there would probably be significantly more.

I've been talking taxes since I graduated in 2006. Some people on this board have been talking taxes for 25 years (or more). What has the city done to help bring business to Philadelphia? KOZ? Please. We can't even keep our own talent - 70% of graduates from the local 6 take jobs outside the city. When was the last time you heard "Philadelphia and good place to grow business" in the same sentence? This current council and administration have failed miserably when it comes to jobs. Here's a fact - The business sector hasn't grown in 25 years. I drank the kool aid in 2006 and 2007, believing that changes could occur. 3 years later I've matured to realize we are what we are. The Comcast deal is good for Comcast - I think it will have very little impact on Philadelphia.

In development news -

I am intrigued by the three building proposal at 19th and Arch. Plan Philly has a nice write-up on the proposal.

[Ninjawho]

Looks like a nice plan for 19th and Arch. Except the tone of that article was pretty negative. Doesn't seem likely, in their estimation, that they'll get the variances.

I don't understand how they can give the go ahead for ACC and quip over the accessibility of one of two 5k sq foot parks. I don't think you can expect the third largest building in America to sit next to a sea of retirement tenements.