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  #4161  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 10:47 AM
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Nexis4Jersey Nexis4Jersey is offline
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I have no problem with poaching jobs from the suburbs to Philly , as long as they go somewhere in Philly or Camden thats fine.
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  #4162  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 10:55 AM
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My predictions for 2030 ridership....,note that Regional Rail extensions to West Chester , Newtown , Reading and Allentown are factored into the 2030 ridership. TOD is a big factor in the other lines....

Southeastern PA / Northern Delaware Transit Ridership

Regional Rail

(New Hope) - Warminster line - 10,000 (2010) > 17,000 (2030)
West Trenton line - 12,000 (2010) > 15,000 (2030)
(Newtown) - Fox Chase line - 6,000 (2010) > 20,000 (2030)
(Reading) - Norristown line - 11,000 (2010) > 50,000 (2030)
Airport line - 7,000 (2010) > 11,000 (2030)
Chestnut Hill East line - 6,000 (2010) > 9,000 (2030)
Cynwyd line - 200 (2010) > 2,000 (2030)
Chestnut Hill West line - 6,000 (2010) > 10,000 (2030)
(Allentown) - Lansdale / Doylestown line - 19,000 (2010) > 50,000 (2030)
Trenton line - 11,000 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)
(West Chester) - Media / Elwyn line - 12,000 (2010) > 35,000 (2030)
(Parkersburg) - Paoli / Thorndale line - 23,000 (2010) > 45,000 (2030)
Wilmington / Newark line - 9,200 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)

Urban Heavy Rail

Market - Frankford line - 180,000 (2010) > 290,000 (2030)
PATCO - 38,000 (2010) > 50,000 (2030)
Board Street line - 137,000 (2010) > 240,000 (2030)
Norristown HSL - 9,000 (2010) > 25,000 (2030)

Light Rail / Streetcars

Philly Trolley Network (15,23,56,6,60,/Waterfront/DPRA lines) - 10,000 (2010) > 220,000 (2030)
Subway - Surface Trolleys - 110,000 (2010) > 320,000 (2030)
Suburban Trolleys - 25,000 (2010) > 45,000 (2030)

Last edited by Nexis4Jersey; Jan 4, 2012 at 2:36 AM.
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  #4163  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 1:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkway View Post
I don't agree that the Navy Yard is poaching jobs from Center City, its poaching jobs from KOP and Ft. Washington. These are companies (GSK) that don't get the KOZ because they did not create more jobs they simply wanted a suburban office park not a Center City high rise.
Yeah, I agree. I think it's actually saving jobs for the city, similar to the Northeast saving residents fleeing Center City in the 50s. Now all we need is a BSL extension. The Navy Yard will be (if it isn't already) Philadelphia's La Defense.

PS. 6th and Spring Garden beer hall is fantastic, fantastic news. Keep pushing those development boundaries westward!
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  #4164  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 3:54 PM
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Not sure if this is the right place for this discussion but it does tie into development of the city. Given all the new apartment buildings that have been announced lately I got to wondering how Philadelphia compares to other metro areas in homeowner versus rental rates of the population. So I found this from the 2010 census.

Table 5.Ten Largest Cities and Percent of Renter-Occupied Units: 2010 (For information on confidentiality protection, nonsampling error, and definitions, see www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/doc/sf1.pdf)
City -- Total population --Total occupied housing units --Percent renters
New York, NY 8,175,133 --3,109,784 --69.0
Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 --1,318,168 --61.8
Chicago, IL 2,695,598 --1,045,560 --55.1
Houston, TX 2,099,451 --782,643 --54.6
Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 -- 599,736 --45.9
Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 -- 514,806 --42.4
San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 --479,642 --43.5
San Diego, CA 1,307,402 -- 483,092 -- 51.7
Dallas, TX 1,197,816 -- 458,057 --55.9
San Jose, CA 945,942 -- 301,366 --41.5
Source: U S Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1
http://2010.census.gov/news/releases...b11-cn188.html

From the above data it is clear that Philadelphia has a low rate of renters when compared to other major cities of it's size on the east coast. After seeing this I wondered what type of affect this has on the city.

The more conventional thinking in the US over the past 60-70 years has been that a higher rate of homeownership is a good thing. I do not actually agree that owning is better then renting based on the fact that after adjusting for inflation, taxes, upkeep, and other costs assoicated with owning a home the historical return on your investment is basically zero while other investments such as investing in the stock market typically brings a 6-7% return after inflation. This means that owning a home is putting a large portion of equity into an inferior investment opportunity.

But even if we take out the cost of lost investment opportunity and assume that the value of our house will increase at the same rate as other investments there is still another problem with homeownership and that is the cost of upkeep. A little info about this problem

As specified by the study, Philadelphia’s home repair dilemma is twice that of other America cities. “Thirty-eight percent of homeowners fall at or below the poverty line, which is twice that rate of Atlanta and Chicago and more than three times the rate of New York or Boston,” the study stated. “Philadelphia family incomes over the past three decades have not kept up with inflation.”

Along with high poverty levels, Philadelphia’s rich historic background, while a notable aspect of the city, proves to be problematic when considering the aged housing infrastructures, which need the most on-going repairs. The most unsettling figure is the majority of Philadelphia homeowners’ repairs cost an average of $5,300. “The cost of not repairing these homes can be more than eight times this amount,” the Philadelphia’s Home Repair Crisis study claimed.

From http://sct.temple.edu/blogs/murl/201...neighborhoods/

So what happens when homeowners can not afford the upkeep on their houses? There is one theory that this can lead to increases in crime. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broken_windows_theory

Another aspect that high owner occucancy rates brings in the NIMBY attitude that can manifest itself in many different ways. One way that this comes through is residents who are afraid of being priced out of their current area. Call it the fears of gentrification.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gentrification "Political action, to either promote or oppose the gentrification, is often the community's response against unintended economic eviction[4] caused by rising rents that make continued residence in their dwellings unfeasible.[5] The rise in property values causes property taxes based on property values to increase; resident owners unable to pay the taxes are forced to sell their dwellings and move to a cheaper community.[6]

While most homeowners welcome a rise in home values because of the appreciation of their investment it is important to note that it is not uncommon to see a community vote against improvement measures for fear that price appreciation in the area will increase taxes and could cause home owners to lose their houses. Since the rate of income in many poor areas does not increase as the value of the home increases the only way to pay the increased taxes would be to take equity out of the home. This is unsustainable as eventually all of the equity will be gone. This means that the homeowner is caught in a catch 22. The majority of their equity is in an asset that the home owner wants to see appreciate at the rate of other investments (6-7%) but at the same time if the appreciation happens will price them out of the area as taxes rise (in theory atleast but I have to admit I do not understand Philadelphia real estate taxes as I live in Jersey)

The other major affect is the typical type of dwelling that is traditionally owned versus being rented. As we all know the most common type of housing in the city is the rowhome. This presents a problem in the type of density that is created. The typical 2-3 floor row home does not currently create the density that is required to make it financially feasible to have mass transit meaning that the residents are faced with the choice of excessively long commutes via public transportation (having to make transfers ect.) or the added cost of owning a car.

Maybe I am crazy but it seems to me that the high homeowner rate in Philadelphia is actually detrimental to the development and improvement of the city. What does everyone else think?
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  #4165  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 5:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jelly Roll View Post
The typical 2-3 floor row home does not currently create the density that is required to make it financially feasible to have mass transit meaning that the residents are faced with the choice of excessively long commutes via public transportation (having to make transfers ect.) or the added cost of owning a car.
Are you kidding this is one of the reasons why Philadelphia is the 3rd most densely populated city with a population over a million. The reason why our mass transit doesn't match our cities population/density is because Pennsylvania underfunds SEPTA like no other state does to their largest city.
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  #4166  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 5:54 PM
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Originally Posted by relnahe View Post
Are you kidding this is one of the reasons why Philadelphia is the 3rd most densely populated city with a population over a million. The reason why our mass transit doesn't match our cities population/density is because Pennsylvania underfunds SEPTA like no other state does to their largest city.
I will admit that I am probably wrong about row homes. I was thinking in a Manhattan context but I now realize that it is dumb to compare the two as Manhattan averages 70,951/sq mi which is denser then any census tract in Philadelphia. I just looked at the density map for Philadelphia from the census and I will admit I did not think that density levels would be in the 30,000 range for areas with majority row homes. I do appear to be wrong in that aspect.
http://projects.nytimes.com/census/2010/map

Last edited by Jelly Roll; Jan 3, 2012 at 7:43 PM.
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  #4167  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 7:32 PM
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http://philaplanning.org/plans/stationsquare.pdf

Found some interesting stuff about development plans for "Station Square" on Market Street in between 30th Street Station and the IRS building.
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  #4168  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 7:40 PM
summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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http://philaplanning.org/plans/mktea...astexecsum.pdf

More great stuff on Market East Development Plans.

Includes surrounding neighborhoods like Chinatown, Franklin Square and Jefferson University. Also includes plans to create a new loft district north of the convention center in between the convention center and the vine street expressway.
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  #4169  
Old Posted: Jan 3, 2012, 8:49 PM
summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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New Live Arts Center across from Race Street Pier





Link
http://planphilly.com/eyesonthestree...ce-building-2/

Also a link to future plans/future opportunities for I-95

http://planphilly.com/i-95-divide
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  #4170  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 12:50 AM
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EastSideHBG EastSideHBG is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkway View Post
I don't agree that the Navy Yard is poaching jobs from Center City, its poaching jobs from KOP and Ft. Washington.
I think that is a bit of a stretch, for numerous reasons. KOP and FTW* have a lot to offer: room to grow, very low taxes, free parking, a solid transportation infrastructure, etc. When you are talking about luring established companies from the 'burbs into the city (not new companies to the area, as I feel that can be a whole different animal), people/companies usually move into the city for a city experience, and you don't really get that in the Navy Yard at the present time. Like it or not there are a lot of negatives in the city, so there has to be those positive city trade-offs.

But it's definitely better to shift jobs and companies already in the city around to suit their needs when and where you can than to lose them entirely, and the Navy Yard is great for that. And the cool thing about the Navy Yard is that as the area grows and changes, opportunities will definitely arise! And I am sure over time, it will be far more linked to CC as well.

*And to be honest, the recent regrowth in Ft. Washington I have been seeing as of late surprises me quite a bit, with most of the office buildings being located within a nasty flood zone, which has been hit very hard over the last few years.
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  #4171  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 10:51 PM
thenbagis thenbagis is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jelly Roll View Post
The more conventional thinking in the US over the past 60-70 years has been that a higher rate of homeownership is a good thing. I do not actually agree that owning is better then renting based on the fact that after adjusting for inflation, taxes, upkeep, and other costs assoicated with owning a home the historical return on your investment is basically zero while other investments such as investing in the stock market typically brings a 6-7% return after inflation. This means that owning a home is putting a large portion of equity into an inferior investment opportunity.
Sorry... but I hate that argument. You can't live in a stock, so it's not a fair comparison.

You need to look at opportunity cost. You need to live somewhere. So for most people that choice is rent vs buy. And there lies your answer for why those percentages are the way they are. The percentage of renters is lower where the cost of buying (a monthly mortgage payment) is closer to the monthly rent.

Lets just run through some rough calculations...
If I live somewhere for 5 years and pay $1000 in rent... that's $60,000 in rent.

The monthly payment on a $186,000 house is $998.49 per month and the total interest on that mortgage over 5 years is $44,710.73... However with a mortgage deduction on your income taxes (lets assume 25% tax bracket, so effective rate 17.25% [$50,000 salary])... your actual interest payment is $36,998... plus your $5,300/year maintenance ($26,500) (which honestly seems high to me). Total cost is over 5 years is $63,498. Plus closing costs ($2000) and cost to sell (let's assume no increase in value, for sake of argument... $11,160)... that's a total cost of $76,658.... or $16,658 more than the option of renting.

If property values go up and/or you spend less on maintenance, it could be a wash at the 5 year mark. As time goes on, the interest paid (per year) goes down and there is a greater chance of value going up.

Regardless, it's unfair to say the equity is missing out on a full 6-7%....

(and honestly, i learned a lot by running through those calculations)
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  #4172  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 10:57 PM
summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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All hail renting
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  #4173  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 11:07 PM
Jelly Roll Jelly Roll is offline
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Originally Posted by thenbagis View Post
Sorry... but I hate that argument. You can't live in a stock, so it's not a fair comparison.

You need to look at opportunity cost. You need to live somewhere. So for most people that choice is rent vs buy. And there lies your answer for why those percentages are the way they are. The percentage of renters is lower where the cost of buying (a monthly mortgage payment) is closer to the monthly rent.

Lets just run through some rough calculations...
If I live somewhere for 5 years and pay $1000 in rent... that's $60,000 in rent.

The monthly payment on a $186,000 house is $998.49 per month and the total interest on that mortgage over 5 years is $44,710.73... However with a mortgage deduction on your income taxes (lets assume 25% tax bracket, so effective rate 17.25% [$50,000 salary])... your actual interest payment is $36,998... plus your $5,300/year maintenance ($26,500) (which honestly seems high to me). Total cost is over 5 years is $63,498. Plus closing costs ($2000) and cost to sell (let's assume no increase in value, for sake of argument... $11,160)... that's a total cost of $76,658.... or $16,658 more than the option of renting.

If property values go up and/or you spend less on maintenance, it could be a wash at the 5 year mark. As time goes on, the interest paid (per year) goes down and there is a greater chance of value going up.

Regardless, it's unfair to say the equity is missing out on a full 6-7%....

(and honestly, i learned a lot by running through those calculations)
You also missed the cost of real estate taxes in your equation but I think it is fair to figure that into maintenance costs as they seem rather high to me too. In order to buy you will need some sort of down payment. This is the money that would be invested elsewhere. The amount of money put down will affect the monthly payment amount and the loan type. Also you state that it could be a wash by year 5. It is important to remember that the average mortgage in the US is refinanced every 7 years. This effectively eliminates the cross over of when owning would possibly be more profitable then renting.
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  #4174  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 11:08 PM
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Looks like March 2012, according to this dispatch from Madison Concrete:

Contract Awarded for the 2116 Chestnut Street Project
Madison has been officially contracted by Hunter Roberts Construction Group for work on 2116 Chestnut Street, a 35-story, 375,000 square foot cast-in-place apartment building in Philadelphia. The structure consists of conventional flat-plate concrete construction and will consume more than 17,000 cubic yards of concrete. Work will begin in March of 2012.

Posted by JorgeGeorgey on the 2116 Chestnut St tower thread.

Is the building 35 stories now?
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  #4175  
Old Posted: Jan 4, 2012, 11:50 PM
summersm343 summersm343 is offline
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http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelp...rage-near.html

could this mean a redevelopment? Or just another owner for the garage.

In another news... Comcast comes one step closer to controlling the world!
..Or just the world of entertainment

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelp...iage-deal.html
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  #4176  
Old Posted: Jan 5, 2012, 12:34 AM
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I posted this over in the 10 most populated municipalities thread but figured people here might be interested in it here too.

For the Delaware Valley Region AKA Philadelphia Metro Area
Population: 5,626,186
*I did not include any statistics from Delaware which would have included Wilmington*

Philadelphia
Population: 1,526,006
Employment: 659,713
Labor force: 569,587
working in Philadelphia: 429,665 (75.43%) This is the number and the ratio of Philadelphia labor force working in Philadelphia

Upper Darby Township
Population: 82,795
Employment: 21,132
Labor force: 39,129
working in Upper Darby: 6,405 (16.36%)

Camden City
Population: 77,344
Employment: 30,575
Labor force: 22,129
working in Camden: 6,965 (31.47%)

Cherry Hill Township
Population: 71,045
Employment: 42,890
Labor force: 33,597
working in Cherry Hill: 8,215 (24.45%)

Gloucester Township
Population: 64,634
Employment: 14,179
Labor force: 32,274
working in Gloucester Township: 4,120 (12.76%)

Bensalem Township
Population: 60,427
Employment: 33,476
Labor force: 30,597
working in Bensalem Township : 8,095 (26.45%)

Lower Merion Township
Population: 57,825
Employment: 42,477
Labor force: 27,965
working in Lower Merion : 8,435 (30.16%)

Abington Township
Population: 55,310
Employment: 21,559
Labor force: 27,737
working in Abington Township : 5,730 (20.65%)

Bristol Township
Population: 54,582
Employment: 18,670
Labor force: 27,155
working in Bristol Township : 5,920 (21.8%)

Haverford Township
Population: 48,491
Employment: 11,587
Labor force: 23,868
working in Haverford Township : 3,670 (15.37%)

Evesham Township
Population: 45,538
Employment: 19,769
Labor force: 22,457
working in Evesham Township : 4,260 (18.96%)


For more detailed info http://www.dvrpc.org/OurRegion/

The link above has lots of info on it including the different types types of transit used to get to and from work along with where people work and other interesting facts.
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  #4177  
Old Posted: Jan 5, 2012, 2:43 AM
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Interesting to know that higher then 75% of Philadelphia's labor force actually work in the city.
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  #4178  
Old Posted: Jan 5, 2012, 2:54 AM
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I may have missed this with all the nonsense that was happening here late last year, but wasn't there a plan to consolidate all Philadelphia highrise construction into one thread in the highrise construction forum? Is that still going to happen?
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  #4179  
Old Posted: Jan 5, 2012, 3:02 AM
Jelly Roll Jelly Roll is offline
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I may have missed this with all the nonsense that was happening here late last year, but wasn't there a plan to consolidate all Philadelphia highrise construction into one thread in the highrise construction forum? Is that still going to happen?
All of the general development stuff was consolidated. Anything that is considered a highrise will keep its own thread.
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  #4180  
Old Posted: Jan 5, 2012, 3:18 AM
dlg569 dlg569 is offline
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All of the general development stuff was consolidated. Anything that is considered a highrise will keep its own thread.
Found it. Thanks.
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