Originally Posted by Denver_Native
It seems that the Republicans are pretty energized right now. This coupled with the President's and congress' low approval ratings translates to sweeping victories for slightly right leaning states like Colorado. I will be very surprised if Ritter and Bennett don't lose by significant margins.
Sorry to disappoint all you girl-friendless, socially inept, constantly blogging, have no life, liberals out there but that is how it's going down this fall.
This is generally what we call "trolling" because there is nothing substantial to it and its only purpose is to piss people off. I've seen political discussions get heated but. I've never seen anybody else here venture into such personal insults against other members of the forum based on their political ideology. It also seems stupid to piss of VIRTUALLY EVERYONE ELSE HERE since I'd figure at least 3/4 of the visitors here are more liberal than conservative.
However, it is important to note that:
49-53% is generally considered a medium, not low, job approval rating for a president. Barack Obama initially won with 53% of all votes so if roughly the same number of people still like him, that's good. Below 45% is generally the considered the point at which an incumbent becomes very vulnerable.
49-53% It's astronomical compared to where other presidents have been in similar economic conditions so if the economy improves, that's great news for Democrats.
Incumbent approval ratings tend to uptick as the election draws near and discontented base voters come home, and as a portion independent voters invariably realize that though they don't like the incumbent, they don't like the challenger any better. (That's why the number for re-election is around 45 and not 50.)
The Republican party still has a lower approval rating than the Democratic party, and Dems still win on generic ballot polls. The margin has decreased which indicates Dems may lose seats in congress but will almost certainly hold on to majorities in both the House and the Senate.
Colorado is no longer a right-leaning state; registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans, and in 2008 Obama won in Co by a much higher margin he did in traditional "swing states" like Florida or Ohio making CO dead center or better. Most of newly registered voters are young and continued trends indicate that people moving in to the state are more progressive than the existing electoral composition of the state.
Democrats in Colorado have a much better field of candidates than Republicans do when it comes to name recognition and electability. Many potential Republican nominees have already lost elections in the state. Potential Democratic candidates (now that Bill Ritter has dropped out) have very high approval ratings.
Democratic approval ratings are about 2% higher in Western states than they are in national polls, because the national number is dragged down so much by the South. That includes Colorado, where Obama won by 9 points vs. a 7 point national average.
I'm not saying that November 2010 will be a rosy evening for Democrats - getting liberals to turn out will be key - but seeing as our expectations are already pretty low, it's much more likely that we'll
be the ones laughing on election night.