2010 Census Discussion Thread...

[Leo the Dog]

Gas is well over $4 here. I bought gas for $4.059 last night. Ouch.

Don, you're right. The high prices will, no doubt, have an effect on the recovery.

[glynnjamin]

Well to quote many environmentalists & economists, getting US gas prices to the level of Europe is essential into creating urban environments. Phoenix benefits greatly from high gas prices in the long run. It hurts now but it drives demand for housing/development in the core of the city near the jobs. Those bus cuts are going to start looking really bad when the Express buses are loaded and people are being left at the curb to get to Avondale & Chandler every day.

[BevoLJ]

For me personally I have mixed feeling about the gas hike and trying to think of the various ways it might effect urban living. This is pretty off topic to the thread so maybe there is a better place for it, not sure. Anyway, while I live in the city I do own a farm outside of Austin and go out there most weekends. I do produce natural gas out there but the gas hike has not effected the natural gas prices only for oil really so that hasn't helped me at all.

But it is costing me a lot more out on the farm. I really try to avoid running the tractor more now as it cost quite a bit which will again cost me later as less work is done around the farm, and will obviously raise prices of food as gas prices rise. Also I imagine the same is for freight prices goes up, as does cost of construction by a LOT which is not good considering developers in the US are having a hard enough time finding financing.

So what I imagine most consumers see as how gas cost more thus they may think that the big impact is that they will have less to spend and that is why it hurts the economy, I imagine that it is the increase in cost of producing and moving goods that raises the cost of everything else that hurts the economy even more. Making cities and urban living much more expensive as well as slowing down progress even more due to construction cost going up significantly. Also that increase in the cost of living in the cities due to the cost of construction and goods makes the lower cost of living out in the burbs even more attractive to not only people but to business and offices. If anything should be taken from this census IMO it is that cost of living has become the overwhelmingly important to people, as can be seen by the cities pricing people out of them forcing them to the burbs by gentrification. Rising oil cost, which raises the cost of everything making cost of living even more of a factor is not going to help urban progress.

[DenverInfill]

Hello, Arizona friends. I was just on the Census website and saw they had just posted the new Arizona numbers:


Data for Arizona show that the five most populous incorporated places and their 2010 Census counts are Phoenix, 1,445,632; Tucson, 520,116; Mesa, 439,041; Chandler, 236,123; and Glendale, 226,721. Phoenix grew by 9.4 percent since the 2000 Census. Tucson grew by 6.9 percent, Mesa grew by 10.8 percent, Chandler grew by 33.7 percent, and Glendale grew by 3.6 percent.

The largest county is Maricopa, with a population of 3,817,117. Its population grew by 24.2 percent since 2000. The other counties in the top five include Pima, with a population of 980,263 (increase of 16.2 percent); Pinal, 375,770 (increase of 109.1 percent); Yavapai, 211,033 (increase of 26.0 percent); and Mohave, 200,186 (increase of 29.1 percent).

[HooverDam]

Census data: Arizona's growth driven by Phoenix, West Valley

38 comments by Ronald J. Hansen - Mar. 10, 2011 03:43 PM
The Arizona Republic

Soaring numbers of Hispanics and overall growth in Phoenix and the West Valley helped make Arizona the second-fastest growing state in the nation, newly released census data show.

Arizona had nearly 1.9 million Hispanic residents as of April 1, 2010, and their share of the overall population rose to 29.6 percent. It was 25.3 percent in 2000. The total count of Hispanics rose by nearly 600,000 over the decade.

By 2010, Phoenix had added nearly 125,000 residents and had grown to 1.4 million, a 9.4-percent increase from 2000. The growth was smaller than previously estimated and Phoenix remained behind Philadelphia, which held its status as the nation's fifth-largest city.

Solid growth in west Maricopa County and Pinal County means they could be central to a new, ninth congressional district to be created before the 2012 elections. Maricopa County had 3.8 million residents, making it the fourth largest in the nation, slightly behind Harris County, Texas.

While the state's 10-year growth figures are impressive, they fell short of estimates made in the final years of the past decade. The new numbers suggest demographers overestimated the state's growth at the height of the housing boom, in part because of tumult in housing data and lags in recognizing a shift in birth and death patterns, experts say. It's unclear how much the Great Recession and the state's militant immigration-enforcement policies may have altered the final figures.

The new data will help guide the five-member Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission as it redraws the political boundaries to be used over the next decade. But it also serves as the most precise snapshot of how and where Arizona has changed since 2000.

The state's largest city, Phoenix, was 148,000 smaller than what the Census Bureau estimated for it in 2009.

The census count of Arizona's population, released in December, was 4 percentage points below previous census estimates. It was the widest such margin in the country.

Arizona State University economist Tom Rex, who analyzes census data, said that's largely due to the movements of illegal immigrants and faulty assumptions from the housing boom.

Illegal immigrants "come here to work," Rex said. "If they've lost their work, they've lost total motivation to be here.

"That, in conjunction with the (2008) employer-sanctions law, made it harder for them to find another job. It seems quite reasonable to expect that a lot of them up and left the state in pretty good numbers."

William Schooling, Arizona's demographer for the past two years, said the state's own estimates were skewed by overreliance on misleading housing information, a method he is now changing. The Census Bureau similarly leans heavily on births and deaths, which are often reported too slowly to reflect the type of sudden shift that apparently happened at the end of the decade, said Schooling, who once headed the bureau's population estimates division.

Rex suspects the state population actually shrank on an annual basis for the first time since the 1930s. If so, that would match a pattern in Florida and Nevada, two historically high-growth states where population gains skidded to a halt at the end of the past decade. Last month, Robert Groves, director of the Census Bureau, could not explain why Arizona proved so challenging, but promised such surprises would be studied.

The census figures serve as more than a population scorecard. In addition to its impact on congressional apportionment, the data is used to help allocate more than $400 billion in annual federal funding for a range of programs, from aid to public schools to transportation projects.



Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/news/electi...#ixzz1GFAnWepH

So not as much growth as we once over projected, but still growing at a good clip overall. All the doom and gloomers will continue to say they use the Force or "feel" we're doomed or other silliness, but it seems we're OK.

Pinal County population grows 109% in 10 years, census shows

3 comments by Ronald Hansen - Mar. 10, 2011 02:46 PM
The Arizona Republic

Among Arizona's 15 counties, Pinal County, which makes up much of the southeast Valley, had the fastest rate of population growth between 2000 and 2010, rising by 109.1 percent, new census figures show.

But a close analysis of census data by The Arizona Republic shows that the biggest growth boom was in the West Valley, in both rate and numbers.

The growth in the West Valley and Southeast Valley will put both in contention for the addition of a new ninth congressional district, to be created before the 2012 elections.


Excluding Phoenix, westside cities and towns grew by nearly 70 percent, adding more than 300,000 people to the Valley. In comparison, East Valley cities, excluding the northeast, grew by about 26 percent, adding about 230,000. Northeast cities, including Carefree, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale, grew by 7 percent, adding nearly 18,000.

If Phoenix's population growth were included, it would tend to add more growth to the west side and the northeast because it stretches west beyond 107th Avenue but stops eastward mainly at Scottsdale Road.

To the south, the Pinal County town of Maricopa's population exploded over the decade, rising from 1,040 to 43,482, a gain of more than 4,000 percent.

The U.S. Census Bureau counted 6.39 million Arizonans last year, up from 5.13 million in 2000.

Here are the 2010 population totals for Arizona's 20 largest cities and towns, according to Census Bureau records released Thursday:

Phoenix: 1,445,632

Tucson: 520,116

Mesa: 439,041

Chandler: 236,123

Glendale: 226,721

Scottsdale: 217,385

Gilbert: 208,453

Tempe: 161,719

Peoria: 154,065

Surprise: 117,517

Yuma: 93,064

Avondale: 76,238

Flagstaff: 65,870

Goodyear: 65,275

Lake Havasu City: 52,527

Buckeye: 50,876

Casa Grande: 48,571

Sierra Vista: 43,888

Maricopa: 43,482

Oro Valley: 41,011

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/community/p...#ixzz1GFCK91hU

No surprise there. Pinal county up until recently has been very sparsely populated, so any growth is going to show up huge in terms of a percentage. I imagine we'll continue to see a lot of growth in Pinal county and if we eventually got Tucson to Phoenix rail we'd see even more.

[Don B.]

^ These numbers reflect some population losses over the last four years. The Bureau had last estimated Phoenix's population at 1.636 million in 2009, to decline to an actual count of just 1.44 million is almost painful to see. In fact, the only reason why there was any increase at all from the 2000 figure was the significant growth we saw from 2000 and 2006. Even the 2005 estimates were higher than today's numbers.

The 9.4% increase in Phoenix's population from 2000 to 2010 is the slowest in recorded history. No other decade has Phoenix's population grown so slowly. The city is nowhere near buildout, so the recession of the last four years has clearly ripped our previous growth machine to shreds. It remains to be seen whether it will ever return to the glory days of years past.

--don

[HX_Guy]

But didn't the article day that the estimates of the last few year have been way off? Who cares if the estimates population was 1.636 Million if in reality there were only 1.55 Million for example?

[Don B.]

^ Because if Phoenix's population actually reached 1.55 million in 2005 or 2006, and has now declined to 1.44 million, that would be a big fucking deal. More proof that this state is dumber than I thought it could ever get. It's bad enough we have this horrific recession going on, with 400,000 jobs lost from 2006 to 2009, then we have to declare war on the 30% of the population that happens to be Hispanic and make things clearly worse. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

--don

[HX_Guy]

Obviously that would be a big deal...but I was just throwing that number out there instead of the 1.636 you quoted.

They said the population estimates have been way off right? So how do we really know how many people were her ein 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009? What if it only got as high as 1.40 Million and we actually have an increase of 40,000 people from 2009 to 2010?

[Don B.]

^ Because I knew the 1.636 million figure in 2009's "estimates" was clearly wrong. It made no sense at the time. It wasn't supported by any of the other evidence at the time that we could see here: declining sales tax revenue, declining income tax revenue, declining garbage collections, falling water hookup accounts, increasing commercial and residential vacancies, job loss, and so forth.

I also remember questioning the 2009 population estimates as being flawed on here and I endured a number of attacks, many ad hominem in nature. As it turns out, I was right, and Phoenix's population clearly peaked in 2005 or 2006 and has been declining since then. I was not alone in questioning these numbers:

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articl...ation0107.html

Even if our growth had been slow but steady this entire decade, the fact that our growth over the last decade from the 2000 to 2010 census was by far the slowest growth ever recorded in Phoenix would be newsworthy in and of itself. Our growth over the last decade was even slower than during the Great Depression, by almost two orders of magnitude.

--don

[HX_Guy]

I don't know Don...I mean I see what you're saying but the fact of the matter is that Arizona was still #2 in population growth over the past decade. If we saw our slowest growth in history, yet still managed to land at #2, what does that say about practically every other state in the country?

I obviously look at it a bit different than you do but I see it as...if this was the worst we've ever done, it can only go up from here, right?

[Tfom]

I don't think it is fair to say 9.3% growth is the slowest in recorded history. As the population gets bigger the actual amount of growth would have to get larger to maintain the same percentage. That being said, I agree with everything else. While this country is in big trouble, this state is in very big trouble. Our leadership is insane. If people begin to move here again it will be because of low cost of living from the continued collapse of the housing market. To pretend the problems aren't real is delusional.

[PHX31]

Originally Posted by Don B.

I also remember questioning the 2009 population estimates as being flawed on here and I endured a number of attacks, many ad hominem in nature. As it turns out, I was right, and Phoenix's population clearly peaked in 2005 or 2006 and has been declining since then. I was not alone in questioning these numbers:

How do you know if you were right? Until they do a census count every year, you never know when our population truly peaked, because from 01 - 09 population counts were just estimates. When history looks back at Phoenix, we've grown from 00 - 10 by 9%+.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by Tfom

I don't think it is fair to say 9.3% growth is the slowest in recorded history. As the population gets bigger the actual amount of growth would have to get larger to maintain the same percentage. That being said, I agree with everything else. While this country is in big trouble, this state is in very big trouble. Our leadership is insane. If people begin to move here again it will be because of low cost of living from the continued collapse of the housing market. To pretend the problems aren't real is delusional.

We don't have a significant white collar workforce and can't seem to attract industry here in any great magnitude. That alone doesn't bode well for the state in the long term.

Leadership certainly isn't helping...

[Leo the Dog]

Don is absolutely correct. AZ while still showing impressive growth has come up significantly short of projections. The estimates were so far off, that, that should be a story in itself.

Despite that, AZ is showing some signs of life right now and that should not be overlooked.

[Don B.]

Originally Posted by Don B.

This is true. Still, I have a hard time believing Phoenix will be anywhere near 1.7 mil for the 2010 census.

--don

So spake I back in November.

My comment in regards to the 2009 estimates, also back in November:

^ They are smoking something. Just my unprofessional opinion.

--don

But even I'm shocked at the actual census count of only 1.44 million for Phoenix, which puts us well back behind Philly's 1.526 million for 6th place. I was predicting more like 1.5 to 1.6 million for the actual count in Phoenix. Evidently the recession and our stupid actions has made things even worse than expected.

We may not have much of an economy, but at least there will be fewer Hispanics around. We will see all of the white people clamoring for those hot jobs in Phoenix roofing, doing construction, cooking, cleaning, and laboring in the farm fields.

Oh wait, the white people aren't moving here either. Oh no, what shall we do now? Let's declare war on blacks! A higher percentage of blacks commit crimes and are on welfare, so let's round them up. Some of them might be doing something illegal.

--don

[plinko]

Just out of curiosity, did the CITY of Phoenix annex any new land in the last 10 years? If not, 10% growth (and thus 10% increase in overall pop density) is actually pretty impressive.

[combusean]

Phoenix annexed massive amounts of land back in the last several years. Go to Google Maps, zoom all the way in, then a few level back out to where the old picture is that shows lots of farmland in the city's SW side. That picture is from 2003 abouts and all the farm land is county. All the Desert Ridge, etc parcels in the north were annexed as well i think.

[Don B.]

Phoenix increased from 475 square miles in 2000 to 519 square miles today, an increase of about 9.2%, about the same as the population increase, again expressed as a percentage.

Actual population increase, per decade:

1950s: 332,352
1960s: 142,402
1970s: 208,132
1980s: 193,699
1990s: 337,642
2000s: 124,587

That's the fewest number of new residents Phoenix has seen since the 1940s...

Percentage increases, by decade:

1950s: +311.1%
1960s: +32.4%
1970s: +35.8%
1980s: +24.5%
1990s: +34.3%
2000s: +9.4%

Our growth in the most recent decade was barely a third of the previous decade.

And it's not just Phoenix...everything in the entire state is smaller than almost anyone would have projected.

--don

[HooverDam]

Originally Posted by Don B.

Our growth over the last decade was even slower than during the Great Depression, by almost two orders of magnitude.

Not sure what this has to do with anything. Phoenix and Arizona weren't nearly as effected by the Great Depression as other places. In fact we likely saw an increase in population due to a lot of "Okies" escaping the dust bowl and moving west. The Great Recession has hit Arizona vastly harder than the Depression of the 30's did.

I'm not ignoring that the Recession has hit Arizona hard, but you've been on this "the sky is falling, Arizona is shrinking and shriveling like an old flower!" kick for years now. AZ has a lot of problems, but as long as the sun keeps shining here and it keeps being miserable in the upper Midwest, we're likely to keep growing.

I'm certainly no fan of our current "leadership," the lack of large corporations HQ'd here, our poor education (especially Higher Ed) system, etc. but I think I'm more of a natural optimist. In my lifetime Phoenix has become a dramatically better place and I think we're seeing the foundations for that continually being laid and at some point I think we'll finally really see urbanism take off here.