Anyone want to make some predictions regarding Manitoba's 14 federal ridings?
Here are my "I'd bet on it" picks
Winnipeg South Centre
Brandon - Souris
Charleswood - St.James - Assiniboia
Dauphin - Swan River
Kildonan - St. Paul
Portage - Lisgar
Selkirk - Interlake
Too close (for me) to call:
I think it'll be close between Keeper and Nikki Ashton. That said, Bev Desjardins is not running this time to split the NDP vote, so this could very well give Ashton a huge advantage. Question is, will Keeper being an incumbent make-up the difference?
John Loewen may appeal to the old PC Party type of voter. However, Fletcher cleaned his clock in the last election, in Charleswood. As for Bruinooge, I can't stand that guy and I would like nothing more than seeing him experience electoral defeat. I believe he beat out Alcock by about 100 votes in the last election. The timing of this election may give the Libs the edge. It's not winter, so many university students who also live in the riding may vote, who wouldn't otherwise on a cold January day (and that usually won't be a Conservative vote, unless things have changed drastically from my UofM days).
Ridings that people may claim could be close, but I don't:
: People constantly underestimate Simard. I'm also thinking that the old unwritten rule that you need a French surname to win federally is still in effect for this riding. It's only the people who take CJOB seriously that will buy into the Shelley Glover "tough on crime" single issue mentality.
Winnipeg South Centre
: no way the densely populated area of Osbourne Village votes for anything that looks or smells Conservative. Also, people underestimate the strength of the organization and network of the Neville campaign. Kennerd is a former Bomber kicker... not sure what his other qualifications may be, or if kicking a football is a qualification for anything other than... kicking a football. He's working hard at retail politics in the area, but I think it's an area where people are more concerned regarding national issues of social importance (and I'm not referring to social importance as being "wholesome family values" - quite the opposite actually).
And, a note about Provencher (Vic Toews)
It'll be interesting to see if this Mennonite-dominated area is willing to turn a blind eye, and become total hypocrites in voting for Vic Toews.
Toews has fathered a child out of wedlock with a much younger woman (apparently in her early '20s). As such, he's now undergoing a very messy divorce.
Source: Click Here (page two of the article)
Vic's a man who so obviously defied one of the most basic of the 'core family values.' He's a man who in elections past portrayed himself as an old-fashioned moralist. Are they willing to turn a blind eye and stick-it to God/Jesus/the Church/the Ten Commandments? We'll see. You can be sure that in another Toews landslide, most of those votes would've been from someone of a Mennonite or otherwise religious fundamental background. They're doing their best in Steinbach to have this issue go away.
Remember last election, when a sign went up in Winker (another heavily Mennonite area), indicating that "A vote for the Liberals is a vote for the Devil" (in reference to same-sex marriage). I'd like to go down to Steinbach this weekend with my own sign: "A vote for Toews is a vote for adultery." Though, I'll try to think up something a bit wittier...
Don't get me wrong... I'm not religious myself. But I do so enjoy watching (and pointing out) the hypocrisy and contradictions of religious groups.
On another note... Ritz the Ag Minister... joking around about listeriosis. Stupid bastard! I do, however, enjoy watching the Cons shoot themselves in the foot... no wonder Harper keeps a tight leash on those guys.