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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 1:20 AM
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jigglysquishy jigglysquishy is offline
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Saskatoon in 2030

It's no secret that Saskatoon is growing at an absolutely crazy amount.

Here's a sample of different growth rates for Saskatoon city and metro


I think a fair assumption for Saskatoon growing over the next sixteen years is the city growing somewhere between 2.5% - 3% with the metro growing between 3.5% - 4%.

That puts the city population in 2030 at 377,000 - 410,000 and a metro population in 2030 at 525,000 - 569,000.

For growth, Saskatoon is planning on growing on the west and east fringes of the city.


Here's Saskatoon's future growth map going forward.



There will be over 120,000 extra people in the city and 220,000 extra people in the metro area over the next sixteen years.
  • How does Saskatoon look in 2030?
  • How does traffic look in 16 years?
  • Do Riversdale and Nutana explode in density?
  • How does downtown look in 16 years?
  • Can we have a rapid transit system in place by 2030?
  • How is the University affected?
  • What cultural, recreational, and entertainment changes can we expect?
  • Warman and Martensville will likely combine for over 50,000. How does this affect those communities and the north side of Saskatoon?
  • How does the north bridge affect the city? How about the perimeter highway?
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  #2  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 9:01 AM
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armorand93 armorand93 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
[*]Can we have a rapid transit system in place by 2030?
I'd be scared if Saskatoon got an actual Rapid Transit system before we do.
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  #3  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 2:21 PM
North_Regina_Boy North_Regina_Boy is offline
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Originally Posted by armorand93 View Post
I'd be scared if Saskatoon got an actual Rapid Transit system before we do.
Knowing Winnipeg you'll be lucky to have one by the time you hit 1.5M. Your province and City seem to think of transportation as the biggest afterthought. I even hate Saskatoon's Circle Drive in spots, but it is leaps and bounds more efficient than yours.

And Regina, well once the Bypass it built, you will probably go bat shit crazy with how much better at allowing traffic flow than Perimeter.

As for the OP. I love the thought of numbers you posted and you have defiantly covered the spectrum. It will be one of those numbers at the years you have posted but I think that there needs to be some major restructuring of the Bus Lanes int he city. Or it will be a crazy mess. However likely to have another 3 bridges by then. If not 4 or 5.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 3:14 PM
drto drto is offline
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Smile

Nice chart jiggly! I've always thought and wanted Saskatoon to be bigger and have more influence on a national level and going to 500,000+ will certainly solidify that increase in relative importance.

The answers to your questions will certainly play out over time but I fear that the results of this growth will certainly be a combination of disappointment as well as delight. Traffic is already a concern as is low density sprawl. I have always thought that the U of S needed to move their farms out of city proper and sell this land to either the city to develop or make better use of it. I hope that it is transformed into a high density mixed use area complete with low-, mid- and high-rise towers interspersed with retail and recreation opportunities.

I hope we finally see an explosion of activity downtown with highrise residential and commercial towers of at least 20 floors with some as high as 40floors.

I doubt they will have any formulation of an LRT by 2030 but bus-only lanes throughout the city and even HOV lanes on Circle Drive would be nice to encourage car-pooling.

It will be interesting to watch for sure!
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  #5  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 4:07 PM
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rapid transit

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Originally Posted by armorand93 View Post
I'd be scared if Saskatoon got an actual Rapid Transit system before we do.
You already have one in place... albeit very small in scale and expanse.

If Saskatoon could have the start of a BRT in place, with planned out corridors, in the next 10-15 years, that would be a great start!
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  #6  
Old Posted Jul 18, 2014, 4:12 PM
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growth numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by North_Regina_Boy View Post
...As for the OP. I love the thought of numbers you posted and you have defiantly covered the spectrum. It will be one of those numbers at the years you have posted but I think that there needs to be some major restructuring of the Bus Lanes int he city. Or it will be a crazy mess. However likely to have another 3 bridges by then. If not 4 or 5.
Growth numbers will be interesting, 2014 will have another large percentage, but then will it taper off, or remain strong? then in the 4-10 year range, what happens, will the growth suddenly stop or will something catalyze another surge? Beyond that, well who knows what will happen at the international level, but it will largely depend on economic strength of the commodity markets.
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2014, 10:20 PM
saskatoonborn saskatoonborn is offline
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Originally Posted by drto View Post
I hope we finally see an explosion of activity downtown with highrise residential and commercial towers of at least 20 floors with some as high as 40floors.
I completely agree, I think we are finally starting to be a important economic and political region (if you count all of Saskatchewan).

As for the U of S farm lands I can't exactly defend my point because I do agree with you, but I kind of like the extra lands and space around the university. They could do more maybe to beautify it perhaps, grow more trees around it, streetscape or something. (the farm animals can gtfo). Something about it makes the university feel less crowded and makes the U of S kind of unique. That's just the feeling I get.

I think that Saskatoon and Regina, especially Saskatoon are only recently being seen as places to do business or somewhere you can move to and be successful, back in 2006 when all of this started and up until 2008 during the crash we were doing quite well but so was everyone, we were overlooked because of our previous 40 years of growthlessness and small city sizes when development companies were deciding to erect buildings on the field of dreams premise. As a community or even as a province we didn't start getting real attention until after the crash in 2008 because everyone was doing poorly but we never did quite as bad, had a few slow months but it almost seemed like we were the last to be affected by the turmoil and one of the first to get out.

One of the problems for the office and condo tower development now is after 2009 everyone is far more careful with developing an area. Although we are a fast growing city and becoming an overall richer city, we are still relatively small to finance these big projects in an area known for liking sprawl. I honestly believe whats going to happen with downtown development is nothing, nothing is going to happen until the next building boom (hopefully sometime in the early 20's) at which time it is going to be realized that Saskatoon has a huge gap in the market and a real demand. We just gotta hope we can keep growing like we have been until that next boom and then we are made. Sit back and watch the skyline change before our eyes.

Sorry it was such a long post. Haven't posted in awhile and I guess I went a bit insane.
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  #8  
Old Posted Jul 21, 2014, 10:47 PM
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Wow, in 2030, Saskatoon will be where Halifax is today, if not surpassing Halifax (considering it's growing much slower). Saskatoon was barely 200,000, or half of Halifax's size not that long ago! Amazing! This must be how people out east viewed the insane growth in BC and Alberta in the '60s and '70s.
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  #9  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2014, 2:18 PM
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I think a metro of 450 000 for Saskatoon by 2030 is absolutely attainable and should be the target. It's fast growth, but fast at a manageable level. Whereas 20 years of 3+% growth is not efficiently manageable. By then, the city will have surpassed Victoria, Windsor, St. Catharines-Niagara, and will be toe to toe with Oshawa and Halifax for the spot of 12th largest CMA in the country.

At this point in the city's development, I think rail rapid transit will be well within the realm of possibility, considering that council has already started planning for it. Looking at Kitchener, starting construction on their LRT at a population of 510 000, I'd say a fast growing Saskatoon at 450 000 (if it's still fast growing by 2030) could manage to start theirs a bit earlier than KW did.
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  #10  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2014, 3:15 PM
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I will venture a guess that in in 2030, Riversdale (20th Street) will be more vibrant and desirable than Nutana (Broadway) - at least in terms of the commercial district. It's hard to imagine Nutana's housing stock being surpassed as the most desirable inner-city neighbourhood for the upper middle class and upper class, but the 20th Street commercial district has some things going for it that I think will push it beyond the buzz that is Broadway:

- significant growth and infill opportunities in area: vacant lots, derelict buildings, and an obsolete industrial area between 20th and 22nd ripe for mixed use infill and densification
- a longer commercial corridor: there is simply more commercial space than on Broadway
- proximity to Downtown, River Landing, Farmer's Market, etc.
- a populace that is less entrenched in an idea of how the neighbourhood "should be". Nutana residents can be militant in protecting their neighbourhood (which comes as no surprise), but I think it comes at the cost of further increasing density, expanding the commercial area, bars and nightspots, etc.

By 2030, rising rents and property values in Riversdale will be pushing those early gentrifiers first attracted to the affordability and grittiness of the area north to 33rd Street.
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  #11  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2014, 3:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Echoes View Post
I will venture a guess that in in 2030, Riversdale (20th Street) will be more vibrant and desirable than Nutana (Broadway) - at least in terms of the commercial district. It's hard to imagine Nutana's housing stock being surpassed as the most desirable inner-city neighbourhood for the upper middle class and upper class, but the 20th Street commercial district has some things going for it that I think will push it beyond the buzz that is Broadway:

- significant growth and infill opportunities in area: vacant lots, derelict buildings, and an obsolete industrial area between 20th and 22nd ripe for mixed use infill and densification
- a longer commercial corridor: there is simply more commercial space than on Broadway
- proximity to Downtown, River Landing, Farmer's Market, etc.
- a populace that is less entrenched in an idea of how the neighbourhood "should be". Nutana residents can be militant in protecting their neighbourhood (which comes as no surprise), but I think it comes at the cost of further increasing density, expanding the commercial area, bars and nightspots, etc.

By 2030, rising rents and property values in Riversdale will be pushing those early gentrifiers first attracted to the affordability and grittiness of the area north to 33rd Street.
I agree on both counts. There's so much prime redevelopment land in Riversdale that it could easily double (if not triple) in the next fifteen years. The Banks alone will increase the population by 10%. I expect 20th street redevelopment to push further west, possibly extending all the way to the tracks.

33rd will boom once the north downtown project starts. That's another thing people tend to underestimate. The city is targeting a density of ~20,000 people/square kilometre in the north downtown. That's a Paris level of density.
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  #12  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2014, 3:40 PM
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As for the city in general, continued growth will bring the good with the bad.

Suburban growth will continue and traffic will worsen. However, this will bolster desirability and development in the downtown for those wanting to escape sprawl and gridlock. Today you can still live on the periphery of the city and work downtown and commute comfortably. Continued growth will further develop the dichotomy between downtown and suburban fringe, and the lifestyle choices between the two will be much more distinct.

So yes, more sprawl is going to happen. But as for the "good" stuff, I predict:

- River Landing will be fully built out (it had damn well better be long before 2030)
- Growth and densification in strategic inner city areas will be well underway: North Downtown, South Caswell, Riversdale, U of S lands
- Growth in the downtown (office and residential) will be incremental but steady. There will be new peaks in our skyline, but it will not be dramatic. The real striking changes will be at the street level and new mid-rise density
- An east-west and north-south BRT line will be well-established. Ridership will be up, and mode share of transit over cars higher than today. Infill and densification on BRT corridors will be in progress. Active transportation infrastructure will be greatly improved
- SaskTel Centre (or whatever it's called at that time) will be 40 years old and discussions about its replacement with an NHL-worthy arena will be ongoing (bolstered by a larger corporate presence in the city and increased national profile)
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  #13  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2014, 3:54 PM
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[QUOTE=jigglysquishy;6659435]I think a fair assumption for Saskatoon growing over the next sixteen years is the city growing somewhere between 2.5% - 3% with the metro growing between 3.5% - 4%.

That puts the city population in 2030 at 377,000 - 410,000 and a metro population in 2030 at 525,000 - 569,000.[/URL]

Just looking back at these numbers again, the way you figure on the metro population is actually incorrect - if the city grows at 2.5% and the area outside of the city within the metro grows at the rate that would provide a 4% growth if both grew at the same rate, then you can't use the 2030 metro population just by itself, you have to subtract the difference of the city population from that rate differential. So if city grows between 2.5%-3.5% and the area of the metro not included in the city between 3.5%-4% it means the city numbers you used would be the correct range but the metro range would have to be adjusted:

bottom range = 525 - (446-378) = 457,000
top range = 570 - (484 - 410) = 496,000

My basis may be incorrect, it could be that the area outside of the city actually grow at a higher rate, I'm just trying to demonstrate that if you separate the growth rate ranges then you have to subtract the city portion out of the metro to do the math.
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