Provincial Economies

[Architype]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

I think I heard a few years ago Newfoundland and Labrador lost $1 million an hour everytime the dollar went up like a cent. I think that's what it was anyways.

Right now both the dollar and the price of oil are high, so N & L should be doing ok in spite of it.

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by Nathan

Ontario isn't the only place that loses when the dollar goes up. Saskatchewan does too. I can't remember what the exact figure is, but the gain that Saskatchewan gets from higher oil prices, gets clawed right back due to the relatively rising Canadian dollar (since we are known to have a commodity currency). This is because oil is priced in $US, so while we get more $US for oil, we get less $CDN because it costs more $US to get a Canadian Dollar.

So yes, we are booming... but it isn't as purely rosy as you are presenting it.

The Saskatchewan Budget form last week:

The 2011-12 exchange rate assumption is 99.82 US
cents. A one US cent increase/decrease in the value
of the Canadian dollar results in an estimated
$27.2 million decrease/increase in non-renewable

resource revenue, all else equal.

a US$1 per barrel change in the average
annual WTI oil price results in an estimated
$18.5 million change in oil royalties;
and,
a US$50 per KCl tonne (C$83 per K

2O tonne)
change in the average 2011 potash mine netback
results in an estimated $96.0 million change in

potash royalties.

Source:http://www.finance.gov.sk.ca/budget2...getSummary.pdf

So right now 3 cents on the dollar costs $81 million but they are $10/barrel low on their oil price forcast, so if nothing changes they will get an extra $185 million from oil. So they do not exactly cancel out. As for potash it could come in $100 higher than they have predicted which is another $200 million.

[Doug]

Central, eastern Canadians to head west again for jobs: TD



Go west, young man
People from central and eastern Canada are expected to head west in increasing numbers in search of work and better jobs, Toronto-Dominion Bank predicts.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1969667/

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Doug

Central, eastern Canadians to head west again for jobs: TD



Go west, young man
People from central and eastern Canada are expected to head west in increasing numbers in search of work and better jobs, Toronto-Dominion Bank predicts.



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle1969667/

Seems like agenda-driving more than anything. With the possible exception of Alberta, none of the province are a cut above all others on all measures. For example, PEI's economic growth is not that far off BC's, and Quebec's jobless rate isn't that far away from BC either.

People may indeed be migrating west for various reasons (a perception of a better job market may be one of them) but things aren't always dramatically better there. Sort of like young people from St. John's or Halifax who still tend to move to Toronto in spite of the fact that both cities have lower unemployment rates than Toronto...

[Doug]

The unemployment rate only tells part of the story. One also has to look at the rate of job creation, which typically correlates strongly to GDP growth.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Seems like agenda-driving more than anything. With the possible exception of Alberta, none of the province are a cut above all others on all measures. For example, PEI's economic growth is not that far off BC's, and Quebec's jobless rate isn't that far away from BC either.

People may indeed be migrating west for various reasons (a perception of a better job market may be one of them) but things aren't always dramatically better there. Sort of like young people from St. John's or Halifax who still tend to move to Toronto in spite of the fact that both cities have lower unemployment rates than Toronto...

I very rarely hear of anyone from Newfoundland and Labrador or St. John's going to Toronto, only Calgary or other places in Alberta. This report also says Newfoundland and Labrador won't see the outmigration to the west like other provinces.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Seems like agenda-driving more than anything. With the possible exception of Alberta, none of the province are a cut above all others on all measures. For example, PEI's economic growth is not that far off BC's, and Quebec's jobless rate isn't that far away from BC either.

I often wonder how the national media would respond if Atlantic Canada were suddenly tops in economic and population growth. The Globe and Mail would probably just step up the fisherman articles and print some pessimistic projections. Regional Atlantic media would play the same game.

The Atlantic region is doing okay, particularly given how the deck tends to be stacked. Its population isn't growing rapidly but so what?

The migration story is also covered in a very slanted way. I am not sure about St. John's but I believe Ontario-Halifax migration has been in favour of Halifax for years. Regardless of the facts, if somebody moves away from Halifax it's still viewed as "going down the road" (despite the fact that it's not at all unusual to want to live in more than one place during one's lifetime). If they move away from Toronto they're just moving away. There is an insidious bias.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I often wonder how the national media would respond if Atlantic Canada were suddenly tops in economic and population growth. The Globe and Mail would probably just step up the fisherman articles and print some pessimistic projections. Regional Atlantic media would play the same game.

The Atlantic region is doing okay, particularly given how the deck tends to be stacked. Its population isn't growing rapidly but so what?

The migration story is also covered in a very slanted way. I am not sure about St. John's but I believe Ontario-Halifax migration has been in favour of Halifax for years. Regardless of the facts, if somebody moves away from Halifax it's still viewed as "going down the road" (despite the fact that it's not at all unusual to want to live in more than one place during one's lifetime). If they move away from Toronto they're just moving away. There is an insidious bias.

Yippers. This is pretty much what I meant.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by someone123

I often wonder how the national media would respond if Atlantic Canada were suddenly tops in economic and population growth. The Globe and Mail would probably just step up the fisherman articles and print some pessimistic projections. Regional Atlantic media would play the same game.

The Atlantic region is doing okay, particularly given how the deck tends to be stacked. Its population isn't growing rapidly but so what?

The migration story is also covered in a very slanted way. I am not sure about St. John's but I believe Ontario-Halifax migration has been in favour of Halifax for years. Regardless of the facts, if somebody moves away from Halifax it's still viewed as "going down the road" (despite the fact that it's not at all unusual to want to live in more than one place during one's lifetime). If they move away from Toronto they're just moving away. There is an insidious bias.

This was TD pretty much and not really the Globe and Mail at all. I also don't really see a bias either, the fact is Atlantic Canada isn't doing that great. Newfoundland and Labrador may have positive gdp and employment growth but the unemployment rate is still ridiculously high and the population growth is stagnant. Nova Scotia's population growth is also stagant, gdp growth is quite low, tax rates are very high and unemployment is high. New Brunswick is facing some very troubling debt problems, employment growth is very low and the unemployment rate is high. PEI is also in the same boat as the others.

The fact is the region isn't doing that great, neither are Ontario or Quebec for that matter.

[SFUVancouver]

Originally Posted by Acajack

For example, PEI's economic growth is not that far off BC's...

PEI's population is so small that if a kid gets a paper route, a couple people get hired at Tim's, and someone finds a loonie while going to vote in a federal riding with a quarter of the population of the national norm, then all those things contribute to the provincial economy posting a quarter point bump in its GDP!

[Dmajackson]

^Maybe in the town of Souris but not the entire island! PEI and in particular Charr'town is doing very well for itself. There's a tonne of commercial and residential construction occuring and Charr'town even has a new convention centre on the way.

What I find interesting is people on this forum like to talk about how Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are becoming some sort of "economic hole" where everyone is leaving and no money is being spent to get it fixed up which is the opposite of the truth really and it's all because of two words "urban migration". Like the rest of Canada we are becoming more urban by the day it's just that the migration is occuring at a very high rate here. When a person moves from a small town into a big city (like 90% of my family has done) their initial impact is negative on the economy but over time the move strengthens the economy. Here in the Maritimes the massive migration has showed no signs of slowing down recently which means the people moving are still negatively impacting the economy but as towns disappear and Halifax continues booming we will be in better shape in the long-term. Think of it this way;

I have over 30 cousins (first and second) on the side of my family that is from a small town. Of all of us only a handful remain in the surrounding area. Most of us have moved onto to the green pastures of Calgary, Halifax, Moncton, Freddy or Charr'town. One of my cousins (lets call her 'K') clearly demonstrates my point. She was born on PEI but lived most of her life in the small town. While there she contributed to the economy through her volunteering and working for the Town. After graduating she moved onto the bright lights of Halifax. As a result the provincial economy was reduced since no replacement was found for her work and the town lost another resident which when combined with the hundreds of others has killed off the once successful retail and industrial sector. Now that 'K' is in Halifax she attends university, has no time for a job or volunteer work and lives on campus all of which have little to no impact on the economy. So in the short-term view she has negatively impacted the economy by moving and not replacing her impact but in the long-term it will have a positive impact. 'K' will likely stay in Halifax which means she will have a better paying job and higher tax rates both of which have huge impacts on provincial economies. The thousands like her will help bring big businesses to the region which in 15-20 years from now, when there is little left in the rural areas, will account for large growth in our GDP.

[PoscStudent]

^ That should mean that employment growth in the province should be better because people are moving to urban areas and it shoulda mean that GDP growth is higher because of more housing being built and etc. but it's not, gdp and employment growth are still not good.

[someone123]

How high is employment supposed to be, anyway? 1% greater than population growth already implies that demand for labour exceeds supply.

As DmaJackson has pointed out there is a lot of internal migration that over the years will fix some structural problems in the region, making it easier for governments to balance their books, etc. Traditionally, unfortunately, governments made this problem worse by directing spending to dying parts of the region and sending the bill to the city. This is okay in a place that's 90% urban but not in a region that's 55% rural.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by someone123

How high is employment supposed to be, anyway? 1% greater than population growth already implies that demand for labour exceeds supply.

As DmaJackson has pointed out there is a lot of internal migration that over the years will fix some structural problems in the region, making it easier for governments to balance their books, etc. Traditionally, unfortunately, governments made this problem worse by directing spending to dying parts of the region and sending the bill to the city. This is okay in a place that's 90% urban but not in a region that's 55% rural.

If growth in Halifax is so strong and it accounts for such a large ammount of the provincial population you would expect that gdp growth would be much higher though. And with urbanization happening throughout all of the Atlantic provinces, finally, you would think the unemployment rate would be dropping more and be on par with the national average.

The region is screwed by high taxes, I heard someone say a recently that it is costing them about the same or more to live in downtown Halifax then it did to live in Toronto.

[Acajack]

I think there is a "go west young man" type of thing that has "flavour of the month" implications to it. It's as much about perceptions as it is about economic reality.

For the longest time in Canada the conventional wisdom was that nothing was happening economically east of Ontario. What has shifted in recent years is the boundary, and Ontario is now being portrayed by some as a passé place that is lumped in with Quebec and that Atlantic provinces as a place that is going nowhere fast.

It is unfortunate that we in North America have this mentality that our countries have huge "disposable/expendable" regions that can be jettisoned without second thought. Now, I do realize that every country has richer and poorer regions but it seems to me that in many places in Europe there is much more effort and consideration put into bringing all regions of a given country up to a reasonably similar level, and far fewer regions "left in the lurch".

[someone123]

The unemployment rate in the cities is below the national average. It's 6.3% in Halifax, for example, and lower than the unemployment rate in Calgary. The overall percentage of people working is about the same as Edmonton -- much higher than Toronto.

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/cbin/mbl2...abor35-eng.htm

This is the same story as everywhere else in Canada. Relatively poor rural areas, relatively prosperous cities.

[PoscStudent]

A bit of good news, depending on who you talk too.

Dexter: N.S. ends fiscal year with $447 million surplus


By THE CANADIAN PRESS
Mon, Apr 4 - 8:07 PM

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/9020456.html

Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter says the province had a $447-million surplus as the fiscal year drew to a close last week.
The premier says the money will be used to pay down the province's massive $13-billion debt.

Dexter made the commitment Monday during his response to the throne speech.

He says the surplus was the result of a $133-million reduction in government spending along with an $80-million reduction in debt servicing costs, thanks to reduced borrowing needs and favourable interest rates.

There was also a one-time adjustment of provincial revenue collected by Ottawa that provided the province with $196 million.

Dexter says that most provincial source revenues also came in higher than estimated.

[PoscStudent]

Provinces

Here's what happened provincially (previous month in brackets):

•Newfoundland 12.4 (12.8)
••Prince Edward Island 11.2 (11.7)
••Nova Scotia 9.0 (9.5)
••New Brunswick 9.6 (9.8)
••Quebec 7.7 (7.7)
••Ontario 8.1 (8.0)
••Manitoba 5.5 (5.3)
••Saskatchewan 5.2 (5.7)
••Alberta 5.7 (5.7)
••British Columbia 8.1 (8.8)

Cities

•St. John's, N.L. 6.5 (6.7)
••Halifax 6.6 (6.7)
••Moncton, N.B. 8.1 (8.1)
••Saint John, N.B. 6.4 (6.6)
••Saguenay, Que. 7.8 (8.2)
••Quebec 6.3 (5.2)
••Trois-Rivieres, Que. 8.5 (8.4)
••Sherbrooke, Que. 7.3 (7.2)
••Montreal 8.1 (8.1)
••Gatineau, Que. 6.8 (6.4)
••Ottawa 6.5 (6.7)
••Kingston, Ont. 6.8 (6.3)
••Peterborough, Ont. 9.7 (9.2)
••Toronto 8.5 (8.3)
••Hamilton 6.0 (6.7)
••Kitchener, Ont. 6.7 (6.6)
••Brantford, Ont. 9.2 (9.2)
••Guelph, Ont. 7.3 (6.7)
••London, Ont. 8.3 (8.4)
••Oshawa, Ont. 8.9 (8.9)
••St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 9.5 (9.6)
••Sudbury, Ont. 7.6 (7.4)
••Thunder Bay, Ont. 7.0 (6.5)
••Windsor, Ont. 9.7 (9.6)
••Barrie, Ont. 8.9 (8.3)
••Winnipeg 5.7 (5.6)
••Regina 5.6 (5.1)
••Saskatoon 5.7 (5.5)
••Calgary 6.1 (6.3)
••Edmonton 5.8 (5.8)
••Kelowna, B.C. 7.8 (7.7)
••Abbotsford, B.C. 10.2 (10.1)
••Vancouver 8.2 (8.1)
••Victoria 6.3 (6.2)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...article1976161

[PoscStudent]

'Sizzling' economy powers N.L. budget surplus

Soaring oil production helped Newfoundland and Labrador on Tuesday post a whopping $485-million surplus for the last fiscal year, with government expecting another surplus despite a broad pre-election spending program.

"Our economy is sizzling right now," said Finance Minister Tom Marshall, whose new $7.3-billion budget includes large increases on both the revenue and spending sides. The government expects to finish the year with a surplus of $59 million.

"We're going to have lots of revenues … People are paid well, and we cut their taxes," Marshall told reporters, defending a budget that includes increased spending in practically every part of the public service....

Continue reading

Here's the Budget: http://www.budget.gov.nl.ca/budget2011/

[caltrane74]

oh boy, Alberta is gonna lose half it's population!

lol!