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  #21  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 3:28 AM
93JC 93JC is offline
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Interesting little bit of trivia: Calgary was dominated far and away by Conservative voters, but it's also one of the strongest sources of Green Party votes.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 3:28 AM
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I live in the last Liberal stronghold west of Toronto.

Oh ya bitches
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  #23  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 3:50 AM
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I was the one who mentioned that Ralph Goodale could run for the rhino party and still win Wascana. Although the runner-up conservative came a close second.

Candidate Party Votes
Bill Clary Green Party 954
Ralph Goodale Liberal 15,842
Ian Shields Conservative 14,292
Marc Spooner NDP-New Democratic Party 7,689

If Ralph retires before the next election then it could be pretty interesting. Also there are a lot of NDP members who loath the thought of merger with the Liberals. One of my co workers feels that at the least the conservatives are a known entity while the Liberals are (his words) slimy weasels who steal our ideas who act like they care.

Like the PC/Alliance merger it is a lot more difficult to bring folks back together then to split them apart. At least the right had a shared history. The Libs and CCF/NDP do not have a shared history at all.

All I can say is interesting times ahead.

Finally why is the centre left/left apocalyptic about the future under the Harper majority. Do they really, really deep in their bones think that their lives are in peril because of a Conservative victory? Some of vitriolic anger directed towards the people who voted for the Harper is quite amazing and really doesn't add much to the debate that must happen if we are going to be able to afford full medicare, pensions, environment etc. For example from the Prairie Dog in Regina:

Well, Canadian voters sure fucked it up. Last night’s election results were terrible for this country, which is likely to be badly and maybe irreparably harmed during the next four years.

Shitty, eh? Yeah!

Unfortunately, a ton of people in Saskatchewan also voted Conservative. Fifty-six per cent of the province’s voters backed the Cons. Which, sadly, proves our province is largely the dumbfuck redneck playground those of us with public platforms have been delicately avoiding saying in print for years. Well, no point in pretending anymore. The hicks are amok. Gotta call hick like it is.


Also here is their cover story:

Well, prairie dog is no grown-up newspaper but we're pretty sharp. And we're here to tell you the truth: We are all completely fucked.

The Conservatives under Harper are a lunatic band of holy-roller, right-wing, rule-breaking, health-care-hating goons who'll steer this country down the road to America-style yee-haw faster than a 15-year-old farm boy drives dad's pick-up to the Hucklebuck homestead for an afternoon booty call with Bobbi-Sue (whose parents have gone a-moonshinin'). Tyler's got a raging barn-boner, a full pack of Peter Jackson smokes and a bible-full of prayers for birth control.

Canada is more fucked than Mary-Lou's chances of making it to 18 without getting knocked up.


I guess the left is tolerant as long as you agree with them.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 4:01 AM
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Great work vid!

My riding, Davenport, was a loyal Liberal area for decades up until now. The NDP has more than double the Liberal supporters this year. Boy, times have changed. It seems like all my friends (early twenties) have all voted NDP too. Layton is winning over the youth.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 5:15 AM
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Sorry to be repetitious, but as others have said, excellent job! I guess this explains why you haven't been online much for the last week or so. I still miss you, but I'm very impressed by the results.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 5:24 AM
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All the blue and orange makes Canada look like a giant Oilers jersey.

Nicely done!
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  #27  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 6:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
I guess the left is tolerant as long as you agree with them.
While I'm also amused at a lot of the rhetoric and hyperbole coming out against Harper in the last week, I don't see how this is specific to the left. When Obama got elected 2 1/2 years ago, the exact same doomsday predictions were getting big play (except instead of the fascist/redneck/neo-con rhetoric spouted against Harper, it was the communist/socialist/death-panel medicare rhetoric against Obama). Some people from the Left, Right and Centre are all guilty of this - it's definitely not exclusive to the left...
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  #28  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 6:25 AM
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Originally Posted by 93JC View Post
Interesting little bit of trivia: Calgary was dominated far and away by Conservative voters, but it's also one of the strongest sources of Green Party votes.
While interesting, it's definitely not surprising. A close look at the Green's platform shows that while very diverse in their policies, a lot of them can be interpreted as fiscally conservative (i.e. lowering income taxes, lowering business taxes, full cost pricing - essentially internalizing externalities so prices accurately reflect costs, which is about as free market as you can get). So, I'm guessing that many progressives (who may still be fiscally conservative) would vote Green over NDP (who they might perceive as wreckless spenders) and over the Liberals (who they still hate from a few decades back)...
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  #29  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 3:23 PM
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In creating the 'Liberal Democrat' vote, I'm not sure I would have just combined the Liberal and NDP vote together because I really don't think that's reasonable since many Liberal voters will head right rather than left.

Here is what I would have done (not sure how difficult to do).

Suppose a riding of 100 voters went this way:

40 Tory
30 NDP
20 Grit
10 Green/other

In dissolving the Grits, I would have assigned their votes based on the inverse ratio of NDP:Tory votes in that riding. So in this riding, the NDP:Tory ratio was 3:4, which, based on the inverse ratio of 4:3, would send 11 Grits to the LibDems and 9 to the Torys. Why an inverse? Basically the Grits occupy the centre of the spectrum, so the more of the spectrum that is already occupied by the NDP the fewer Grits there would be who would go left rather than right. Conversely, a small NDP showing and large Tory showing would mean more of the Grits in that riding would head left (e.g. in an Alberta riding with 2/3 of the vote going Tory, most Grit voters would go to the LibDems). A riding in which the three tied at 30% would see the Grits split evenly - which makes sense since that riding is a "centrist" riding.

Any kind of exercise like this is fraught with problems, but what I was trying to adjust for is the fact that not all Grits will head left while trying to come up with some simple way to split the Grit vote that "makes sense". I think we would probably still have ended up with a LibDem majority, but not by nearly as much as the simple summation of Grit & NDP votes would suggest.
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  #30  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 4:03 PM
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I'm shocked that people support a Liberal/NDP merger. In Canada, we are proud over our multi-party system. A few years ago we had 4 parties with party status. Hell, we had 5 parties with party status in 2000. Ever since 1930 we've had at least 3 parties with party status. That was the last time it was a 2 party government. A Liberal/NDP merger would make the House a 2 party government.

2 parties would hold 99% of the power in the country. That, for one, scares the shit out of me.
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  #31  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 5:14 PM
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I think Vid's results re: Lib/Dem merger are more interesting when considered as non-Conservative votes. It goes to show that while you could argue that Canadians voted for a majority Tory government, Canadians clearly also voted against a Tory majority. It's one of the paradoxes of the FPTP system.
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  #32  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 5:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdog View Post
While interesting, it's definitely not surprising. A close look at the Green's platform shows that while very diverse in their policies, a lot of them can be interpreted as fiscally conservative (i.e. lowering income taxes, lowering business taxes, full cost pricing - essentially internalizing externalities so prices accurately reflect costs, which is about as free market as you can get). So, I'm guessing that many progressives (who may still be fiscally conservative) would vote Green over NDP (who they might perceive as wreckless spenders) and over the Liberals (who they still hate from a few decades back)...
It's not surprising to me or you but I think it is to many others who would paint Albertans, Calgarians in particular, as 'anti-environment'.
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  #33  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 5:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dado View Post
In creating the 'Liberal Democrat' vote, I'm not sure I would have just combined the Liberal and NDP vote together because I really don't think that's reasonable since many Liberal voters will head right rather than left.

Here is what I would have done (not sure how difficult to do).

Suppose a riding of 100 voters went this way:

40 Tory
30 NDP
20 Grit
10 Green/other

In dissolving the Grits, I would have assigned their votes based on the inverse ratio of NDP:Tory votes in that riding. So in this riding, the NDP:Tory ratio was 3:4, which, based on the inverse ratio of 4:3, would send 11 Grits to the LibDems and 9 to the Torys. Why an inverse? Basically the Grits occupy the centre of the spectrum, so the more of the spectrum that is already occupied by the NDP the fewer Grits there would be who would go left rather than right. Conversely, a small NDP showing and large Tory showing would mean more of the Grits in that riding would head left (e.g. in an Alberta riding with 2/3 of the vote going Tory, most Grit voters would go to the LibDems). A riding in which the three tied at 30% would see the Grits split evenly - which makes sense since that riding is a "centrist" riding.

Any kind of exercise like this is fraught with problems, but what I was trying to adjust for is the fact that not all Grits will head left while trying to come up with some simple way to split the Grit vote that "makes sense". I think we would probably still have ended up with a LibDem majority, but not by nearly as much as the simple summation of Grit & NDP votes would suggest.
Some good points. IIRC the post-merger Conservative vote was much lower in almost all ridings than the Alliance/PC vote. Fun to look at nonetheless. Big thanks to Vid for posting these.

I'm sure there would be soft Liberal supporters (although after this election result there don't seem to be many left) who would vote Conservative if there was too much perceived NDP influence.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 6:45 PM
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Originally Posted by The Jabroni View Post
This is very cool, vid!!

I like how you chose the colour scheme of what could be the Liberal Democrats. Very similar colour scheme of the Liberal Democrats in the UK, if that was what you were going for.
It is. Yellow isn't just used by Liberal Democrats in the UK, it is used in many other countries' Liberal-Democrat parties, and it is, along with purple, the only basic colour left in our political landscape, so it helps to distinguish them from the other parties, as well.

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Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
If Ralph retires before the next election then it could be pretty interesting. Also there are a lot of NDP members who loath the thought of merger with the Liberals. One of my co workers feels that at the least the conservatives are a known entity while the Liberals are (his words) slimy weasels who steal our ideas who act like they care.
It isn't just the Liberals that steal ideas from the NDP. Harper's budget does it too, taking just under half of their demands. He didn't meet them but he obviously saw some merit in including them or he wouldn't have tried.

The NDP have been a good source of ideas, but that doesn't mean they're going to be good at governing.

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Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN View Post
Finally why is the centre left/left apocalyptic about the future under the Harper majority. Do they really, really deep in their bones think that their lives are in peril because of a Conservative victory? Some of vitriolic anger directed towards the people who voted for the Harper is quite amazing and really doesn't add much to the debate that must happen if we are going to be able to afford full medicare, pensions, environment etc.

...

I guess the left is tolerant as long as you agree with them.
This happens from the right as well, feeling apocalyptic to the left. Many left-wing Canadians look at Stephen Harper, especially the things he said in the 1990s, and see a man who reflects the "scary" events happening in the US at the hands of Tea Partiers. Just like you would look at a communist state and feel nervous about political leaders here who lean in that direction, people on the left in Canada feel the same unease towards Harper's Conservatives, and both sides lash out with insults as a result of the fear of the bad things that could happen.

The reality is, Harper is just the leader of the party. When Chretien was Prime Minister, not all Liberals voted the same way on everything. The same will be true with Harper's majority government. A lot of the Ontarian MPs, who form the largest bloc in the party, are pretty centred and would likely oppose most of the things the left wing is scared of, if Harper is reckless enough to even carry them out. He knows that a lot of the opinions he held in the past aren't popular nationwide and if he wants to be more than a one term Prime Minister, he'll have to keep those opinions tempered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Sorry to be repetitious, but as others have said, excellent job! I guess this explains why you haven't been online much for the last week or so. I still miss you, but I'm very impressed by the results.
This was just a weekend project, I've got a lot of other things going on during the weekdays and haven't had much time for computer stuff.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
All the blue and orange makes Canada look like a giant Oilers jersey.

Nicely done!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Bdog View Post
While interesting, it's definitely not surprising. A close look at the Green's platform shows that while very diverse in their policies, a lot of them can be interpreted as fiscally conservative (i.e. lowering income taxes, lowering business taxes, full cost pricing - essentially internalizing externalities so prices accurately reflect costs, which is about as free market as you can get). So, I'm guessing that many progressives (who may still be fiscally conservative) would vote Green over NDP (who they might perceive as wreckless spenders) and over the Liberals (who they still hate from a few decades back)...
I've always said that the biggest mistake the Greens have made under Elizabeth May is not emphasizing their economic policy enough. A lot of people still think that they're just focused on one thing when they really have a more well rounded platform than the other three parties in opposition.

If the Conservatives were a bit more moderate, and Jim Harris was still the leader of the Greens, a 155 seat Conservative minority would easily become a 156 seat Conservative-Green coalition majority. In my fantasy world...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dado View Post
In creating the 'Liberal Democrat' vote, I'm not sure I would have just combined the Liberal and NDP vote together because I really don't think that's reasonable since many Liberal voters will head right rather than left.
I know that, and I have mentioned it, but the vote might not split the same in every riding. Combining the two votes into one was the clearest, simplest and easiest method to show how this would play out. Once you start adding complex formulas to split the Liberal vote out based on local level political ideas, not only does the workload for such a project increase significantly, but you bring in a lot more uncertainty than simply saying "this is what the results would be like if everyone who voted for NDP and Liberal voted for the same unified party". A map showing combined PC and Alliance votes would likely be similar. going back to 2000, who could have predicted how that vote would be redistributed? There would likely also be some sort of continued Liberal party among the Fringe parties, just like the Progressive Canadians came out of the Progressive Conservatives after the right was united. There would still be a Liberal Party in some form, but it would be much smaller, probably irrelevant.

You also have to consider the drop in the Green vote in this election. A lot of us who previously supported Greens voted NDP in the election. We might not in the next one, and that could bring their numbers back down. There were also some Conservatives who dislike Harper's leadership style and voted NDP this time, so predicting political situations becomes even more difficult. Over the course of this election I supported all but the Liberals at some point in the campaign; a lot of people swing like that, and you can't predict it very well.

Like I said, if I had the skills and the programme to do it, creating an algorithm than can carry out the process you describe could produce a more accurate map in seconds. I did this by hand. (Tedious but very relaxing.) This is nothing media companies couldn't do; they just didn't.

--

Last night I remembered this thread from the US Election Atlas forum. They use GIS data provided by Elections Canada to display results right down to polling stations, meaning you can see the level of support for a political party right down to the neighbourhood level in your riding. The maps aren't as pretty but they're even more informative than mine. Hopefully they continue their project after this election.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 7:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vid View Post

Last night I remembered this thread from the US Election Atlas forum. They use GIS data provided by Elections Canada to display results right down to polling stations, meaning you can see the level of support for a political party right down to the neighbourhood level in your riding. The maps aren't as pretty but they're even more informative than mine. Hopefully they continue their project after this election.
I found this to be the most useful and easiest to see your neighbourhood and how people voted.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites...5_section_POS2
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  #36  
Old Posted May 9, 2011, 8:30 PM
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I hope they do that for this election as well. The GIS data they used for that doesn't get released by Elections Canada for a few months after the election, so we'll have to wait.

A few ridings that I found interesting are Kenora, where the Conservatives won but received no support in much of the riding's geographic area (and it will be interesting to see if that changes because the incumbent has built a good relationship with First Nations in Kenora District's north) and Guelph, where there looks to be a pretty good three-way split between Liberal, Conservative and Green.
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  #37  
Old Posted May 11, 2011, 5:15 PM
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Excellent job vid! Andrew Coyne of Maclean's has tweeted positively about your maps as well. The clarity of your maps is a thing of beauty.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 11, 2011, 7:23 PM
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Originally Posted by jeremy_haak View Post
Canadians clearly also voted against a Tory majority.
Really? You can also say that 82% did not vote for the Liberals, 70% did not vote for the NDP, 94% did not vote for the BQ and 96% did not vote for the Green Party.

On a side note, the Liberals are as likely to merge with the CPC as they are with the NDP.
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  #39  
Old Posted May 11, 2011, 9:00 PM
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So the conservatives got the majority because they had the least amount of people voting against them?

Makes sense.
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  #40  
Old Posted May 11, 2011, 9:02 PM
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Originally Posted by srperrycgy View Post
Excellent job vid! Andrew Coyne of Maclean's has tweeted positively about your maps as well. The clarity of your maps is a thing of beauty.
Twitter isn't working for me. But if he really mentioned my maps, that's really cool.

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So the conservatives got the majority because they had the least amount of people voting against them?

Makes sense.
It's about as much sense as multi-party FPTP voting makes.
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