Originally Posted by caltrane74
Hey Condo Owner! Why so glum?
If 0.1% of the GTA population decided the suburban lifestyle wasn't for them, that's ~50,000 units downtown.
1% of the population deciding the suburban lifestyle is no longer for them would result in 500,000 new condo units in urban centers. This boom since 2000 has been the equivalent of about 0.25% of the population moving into condos.
A culture change like that takes a decade or two before even a low percentage finds it acceptable and a generation or two for the majority to accept it.
From my own acquantances it seems like a larger percentage are interested in living downtown than in 2000 and may go somewhere else along Yonge as a fallback (Eglinton or North York).
Yes, a pause is coming. It's what happens after the pause that is going to be interesting. Do we stall for a decade, do we start building out the suburbs again, or is it a culture shift and downtown living comes back with a vengence.
If this is the beginning of a culture shift; then watch-out because the 2020's will make this look like the calm period, especially if Metrolinx fails to dramatically increase transit capacity. Of course, the majority of buildings will be built for the average joe rather than Yuppie couples without kids, so expect a lot more "Star of Downtown" quality buildings.
Ironically, I think implementation of a solid GO REX service is what will kill downtown condomania.