Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting - Page 21

LeftCoaster · #**401** Posted: **Aug 3, 2012, 1:51 PM**

From what I heard yesterday they aren't going to be pretty.

Ramako · #**402** Posted: **Aug 3, 2012, 2:00 PM**

I wonder if the major projects that have sold pretty well but have yet to break ground like Massey Tower and 88 Scott will squeak through to actually being built. I'm kind of worried about projects like Picasso and Exhibit too.

caltrane74 · #**403** Posted: **Aug 3, 2012, 2:08 PM**

I don't think 88 Scott or Massey Tower are in any danger.. And what will likely happen to those condo projects in the pipeline is a delayed release.

caltrane74 · #**404** Posted: **Aug 7, 2012, 4:07 PM**

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle4466727/

Developers continue to build in Toronto, despite warning signs of a cooling market.

Quote:

Toronto developers appear to be forging ahead with new projects, according to data from Statistics Canada released Tuesday, despite some signs the housing market is cooling, particularly for condos.

Toronto was one of the few cities in Canada to show a gain in the number of residential and other building permits in June – mainly a result of a rise construction permits for new homes of all sorts, including semi-detached, row houses and single homes.

This thread was started in June 2011 - IT IS NOW AUGUST of 2012!!

LOl!!

suburbanite · #**405** Posted: **Aug 7, 2012, 4:47 PM**

The article also states that there was a record number of unsold units. If developers are now moving forward with "ghost" projects we may be moving closer to a bubble, not defying expectations of one.

Before the mortgage rules changed, it seemed as though demand and development were in sync(depending on what percentage you choose to believe are bought by foreign investors). Now there might be a disconnect between the two. These gaps are often the precursors of real-estate bubbles.

Nathan · #**406** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 7:49 AM**

Meanwhile in Saskatchewan....

Quote:

Regina's housing starts nearly double from 2011

REGINA -- According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2012 housing starts have almost doubled those at this time in 2011.

According to the CMHC's monthly survey of residential construction, 1,688 housing units have been started in since Jan., compared to 847 in the same time period in 2011. Housing starts for the month of July reached 263, 116 more than in July 2011. The year-to-date number of housing starts in 2012 is quickly approaching the total number of housing starts — 1,694 — for all of 2011. The 2012 number has already surpassed the total for each year in the past decade.

...

Housing prices in Regina have been an issue for a while — the average price in July was $313,917 —, and while more houses are being built, a concern exists regarding the availability of affordable housing.

...

Article in Regina's Leader Post

It will definitely be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out with the new rules in place.

SHOFEAR · #**407** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 2:35 PM**

things are fine here...

Quote:

Edmonton housing starts surge
Jobs and newcomers are boosting home construction in the Edmonton region to levels not seen since the early 2000s, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

Housing starts in the Edmonton census metropolitan area for July surged to 1,435, up from 1,034 in July 2011.
“Housing starts in Edmonton continue to be supported by employment growth and net migration,” said David Lan, CMHC senior market analyst for Edmonton.

Lan pointed to Statistics Canada figures showing net migration to Alberta jumped to 22,067 people in the first quarter of 2012, compared to the 8,983 in the same quarter in 2011.

“A strengthening resale market also contributed to the higher level of housing starts in July.”

The increase is part of a year-to-date upward trend. From January to July, builders started 6,903 homes, up from 5,085 in the first seven months of 2011.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/busin...304/story.html

freeweed · #**408** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 4:13 PM**

And people keep disputing my view that there's a sizable boom going on right now in Alberta...

SHOFEAR · #**409** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 4:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by freeweed

And people keep disputing my view that there's a sizable boom going on right now in Alberta...

manageable boom. lets just keep at this pace.

Mister F · #**410** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 10:10 PM**

The Toronto condo market levelling off is probably a good thing but I don't see a crash coming. There's an important difference between now and the last time the market crashed in the late 80s: growth trends have changed significantly since then. We now have the Places to Grow growth plan, the Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine, and increased transit investment. More importantly, there's now a very strong culture of urban living.

The number of detached houses being built in the GTA is less than half of what it was a decade ago, apartment starts have doubled, and total housing starts are constant. Condos are picking up the slack and the downtown population has skyrocketed. This is a long term trend.

http://www.peelregion.ca/planning/pd...-2011.htm#2001

Doady · #**411** Posted: **Aug 10, 2012, 10:49 PM**

The Places to Grow growth plan, the Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine, and increased transit investment will last only until the next provincial election. The predictions of a Toronto condo market crash are not unrealistic.

Mister F · #**412** Posted: **Aug 11, 2012, 3:51 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doady

The Places to Grow growth plan, the Greenbelt, Oak Ridges Moraine, and increased transit investment will last only until the next provincial election. The predictions of a Toronto condo market crash are not unrealistic.

I wouldn't be so sure, considering it was the Mike Harris Conservatives who started the Smart Growth panels and created the Oak Ridges Moraine.

caltrane74 · #**413** Posted: **Aug 11, 2012, 4:17 AM**

Downtown Toronto will stay hot. - Maybe a mild correction.

vanman · #**414** Posted: **Aug 11, 2012, 1:43 PM**

The way I see it there is a definite urban shift occurring across Canada. Detached homes are no longer the definition of success that they used to be. Short commute times and access to transit and amenities are starting to trump square footage and backyards. Furthering this trend is the fact that people are getting married and having children much later in life, resulting in people
needing less space for a longer period of time.

To me it is amazing to see the awakening that is finally occurring. Average people are now finally recognizing the benefits of urban living en masse. Obviously the ridiculous price of housing and fuel is a major factor in this, but either way I see it as a positive thing for our nation in the long run.

suburbanite · #**415** Posted: **Aug 11, 2012, 1:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister F

I wouldn't be so sure, considering it was the Mike Harris Conservatives who started the Smart Growth panels and created the Oak Ridges Moraine.

Hudak has already hinted without much subtlety that he would be open to removing or at least lessening the restrictions on the Greenbelt.

Mister F · #**416** Posted: **Aug 12, 2012, 9:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Hudak has already hinted without much subtlety that he would be open to removing or at least lessening the restrictions on the Greenbelt.

Even if the Greenbelt were completely dismantled (something I find unlikely even if Hudak were premier), there's still the Oak Ridges Moraine, Places to Grow, dozens of municipal official plans that are now consistent with Places to Grow, and a culture of urban living that didn't exist 20 years ago. I know Hudak is a regressive "back off government" type, but so was Harris and he's the one who was in power when the momentum started. Hudak would be facing one hell of an uphill battle if he tried to reverse all that.

Doady · #**417** Posted: **Aug 12, 2012, 11:55 PM**

Even if Hudak was into controlling sprawl, he'd try to do it with anti-foreign-worker policies. After all, probably most people in the GTA are foreigners and that's where most of the growth and the demand for housing is coming from. Condo market crash is inevitable either way.

SpongeG · #**418** Posted: **Aug 13, 2012, 4:20 AM**

Canada’s housing market cooling: Scotiabank

CTVNews.ca Staff
Published Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2012 12:13PM EDT
Last Updated Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2012 11:09PM EDT

Canada’s hot housing market is beginning to cool off, Scotiabank said Wednesday in a new report, with average home prices expected to decline by about 10 per cent over the next two to three years.

Scotiabank economists warn that the housing price correction will largely occur in the Toronto and Vancouver markets.
Senior Economist at Scotiabank Adrienne Warren said in a statement that in those markets, “supply risks and affordability pressures have the potential to trigger larger price adjustments.”

...

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canad...#ixzz23OenwlPY

caltrane74 · #**419** Posted: **Aug 13, 2012, 4:44 AM**

WTF?

How do you have 24.5k posts?

I thought I was the post king on this site. Good lord you and Coldrsx.

Mister F · #**420** Posted: **Aug 13, 2012, 7:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doady

Even if Hudak was into controlling sprawl, he'd try to do it with anti-foreign-worker policies. After all, probably most people in the GTA are foreigners and that's where most of the growth and the demand for housing is coming from. Condo market crash is inevitable either way.

What a bizarre post. You think that Hudak would try to stop immigration to starve Toronto? Or are you just trolling?