Originally Posted by Brandon716
^I don't know if there are that many far-right ridings, Ontario had a true Progressive Conservative movement for years, even in rural areas. But then again I haven't studied the numbers enough to know which riding leans what way with a tally of votes. I have a general idea, but I'm not going to be throwing out exact number projections.
It may very well be good for the PC's to nominate someone more progressive if they want to win though, and trash the far-right Hudak. Something that is playing very strongly in the GTA where a lot of those soft-liberal voters could theoretically vote PC if there was a progressive nominated is the Rob Ford factor. GTA residents are largely seeing what kind of an embarrassment he is, and most people think of him negatively in the 905 region and are now proud they aren't part of the city.
Then again this may not affect provincial elections at all, but I think there is a correlation with seeing how pompous and ignorant Mayor Lardbutt is and most people who could otherwise vote PC won't dare do so with Hudak in charge, they don't want two major mistakes in office at once with the trifecta of Harper sitting at the top, more calm in public than his lower level minions at the local level.
The TRUE far-right ridings are the rural ridings in eastern Ontario surrounding (but not including) Ottawa, west along Highway 7/12 and 60 to Georgian Bay. Basically a triangle from about Orillia to North Bay and east to Cornwall, give or take. It doesn't include the 401 corridor from Kingston west though. That area has only a handful of ridings though,
That is true about the Rob Ford factor, he does have a loyal following (i.e. about 30-35%) but turns off about 60% of the voters. Still, he could easily be re-elected if the left is split in 2014. The suburban 905 (Mississauga, Brampton, south York Region) and the outer 416 really aren't that different, and indeed are fairly Red Tory/Liberal, sometimes able to go to the Conservatives in certain situations (federally it was because the Liberals collapsed and went too far left, creating a vote split).
Basically, in Ontario (except in the north), I see 6 pedigrees:
- No chance for anything even remotely right of centre, the Conservatives are wasting their time trying to get policies supporting here. The battle here is Liberal/NDP, with the general viewpoint being much closer to the NDP these days (more left than centre).
Outer 416/Suburban 905
- As mentioned, leaning Liberal but can go Conservative in the right circumstances. Some enclaves might be becoming more NDP-friendly though. Whoever can win the "ethnic" votes generally wins here. This is classic Progressive Conservative/Liberal country.
- Leaning Conservative, can be shaken in the right circumstance (centre-right Liberals vs. Tea Party Conservatives) or in a split vote. Right-wing conservatives can win here against weaker Liberals or if they draw too far left though. NDP has no chance here.
Rural areas beyond the GTA
- More conservative than ever, very strong anti-government view exists here today. Such is especially true in eastern Ontario, which is Tea Party country today. They won't give a blank check either, as John Tory found out in a 2009 by-election which he lost being too urban and not right-wing enough. Rural areas include the smaller communities (i.e. less than 50,000). Liberals can only win on a badly split vote or a Conservative miscalculation keeping the base at home.
- They seem to break the mold. There are definitely pockets of Liberal and NDP support in these cities (i.e. Ottawa, Hamilton, London, Kitchener-Waterloo) and even some traditionally liberal smaller cities (i.e. Guelph, Kingston). In the suburban areas of these cities, they are receptive at times of the conservative message, while urban areas are very resistant and are more NDP than Liberal. Riding boundaries are important here.
Basically, a party needs to win 3 of those 5 groupings to win power. I didn't really cover Northern Ontario since incumbency is king there, and removing them is rare, and party affiliation doesn't matter as much.