Originally Posted by whatnext
Won't happen. David Everscum soiled the Liberal brand in that area for a generation, and Yuan doesn't have the profile to overturn that, Chinese influx notwithstanding. The CCF-NDP held V-K for the majority of the last 60 years.
whatnext... the demographics for V-K have changed considerably over the past 20 years. Using your analogy, the federal riding of Nanaimo-Alberni would also be NDP as it (or its previous incarnation) has been for ~60 years.
But the demographics of Nanaimo-Alberni have changed considerably with retirees from BC, Ontario, and esp. Alberta infesting that riding whose voting profile is Conservative. That's along the North Nanaimo, Ladysmith, Nanoose Bay, Parksville, Qualicum Beach corridor. That seat, which would have been slam dunk NDP pre-1993, is now strongly Conservative and trending that way election after election.
The same trend is occurring in V-K in favour of the Liberals. And yes, Emerson was the wrong candidate for that riding. Nevertheless, the NDP vote is also trending downward in V-K. From 37% in 2004, skip 2006, to 35% in 2008 for the NDP - around 1/3 of the vote.
In 2008, nobody could really understand Liberal leader Staphane Dion and were also turned off by their "Green Shift" representing further carbon taxes when BC'ers were opposing the BC carbon tax. Bad populist politics.
The overall BC Liberal vote went to 19%, the lowest Liberal vote in a federal election in BC since 1984. The Conservatives were the beneficiary of that Liberal vote and their blue tide swept into the City of Vancouver, taking a good chunk of the previous Liberal vote in V-K, while knocking off Liberals in Richmond to the North Shore and almost Dosanjh in V-S.
The Liberal vote in BC has now rebounded while the NDP vote is stagnant. Do you really believe that Don Davies will keep his seat with the NDP's glass ceiling of ~35% in V-K (trending downward) in the next election? I'd wager $100 with ya that he won't.
V-K is no longer the working class 'burb of even 20 years ago but, with new homes in the $1 million range, continues to trend Liberal, Emerson and the 2008 election notwithstanding.