Originally Posted by TechTalkGuy
So this commercial real estate development has not provided the public with plans for a soaring skyscraper, but I commend you for providing valuable intel on this interesting potential.
It becomes fairly easy to predict developments once you understand the trends and see the patterns. Most of the time, big players like Extell, Vornado, Greenland, and Tishman Spyer, just to name a few, rely on assembling large properties for having the development rights that they seek. Given the lot, the sq-footage, and any potential for untapped air rights in adjacent properties, you can almost think like they do. Couple of factors also play in, such as the demand, neighborhood, the typical portfolio and how much capital they pour into the city via the annual reports and so on. Lastly, the history of the developer.
With Extell for example, in Manhattan, that's in the range of 200-300k+ sq ft, on the UES or UWS will most likely be condos. Just knowing the development patterns can help you speculate on a potential development, and you'll most likely be right. You might be thinking rentals, but condos can generate more income as they can be priced to extraordinary amounts, and have less of a market influence to them. What we've seen are just that, lots of condos. Ussually buildings that are over 300 ft, containing fewer than 150 units.
Brooklyn is the spot for rentals now. Mostly everything going up there in DoBro are rentals.
One thing I'd recommend to keep an eye on is the property purchases along the Brooklyn and Queens waterfront facing the river. Even in the S.Bronx. These will be hubs of affordable, and market rate units. Lots of them too (1000+ units).
With this potential development, the area will guarantee that its noticeable. Near MSG, with two reputable and with a proven track history investors, and yeah, this will be a tall tower.