Quote:
Originally Posted by borkborkbork
There are 36 Tory seats, but only... what, 25 of those with an incumbent running? An unpopular provincial government and even less popular leader, and economic headwinds against them...
To squeak out a win, they have to hold several of their Winnipeg ridings. Which ones do you seem them holding?
It seems clear that the PC caucus doesn't believe they're going to get another term, given all the MLAs in super safe Tory ridings who are not running again...
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There's 16 ridings here the PC's will have a hard time retaining. They need to win half of them for a majority.
City PC ridings up for grabs in my opinion...a few of these could evolve into 3 way races.
Seine River
Southdale (think PC's could hold on if they dumped Gordon, but she has basically no chance to win re-election)
McPhillips
Radisson (incumbent here is also intensely unpopular)
Rossmere
Assiniboia
Kirkfield Park
Fort Richmond (unpopular incumbent with poor ministerial record)
Riel
Waverly (unpopular incumbent here too)
Lagimodiere
Kildonan-River East (vast riding, very divided north-south, a NDP stronghold vs PC stronghold at city limits)
Rural PC ridings up for grabs in my opinion:
Selkirk (NDP chances here really depend on getting out the vote)
Dauphin (Has been a NDP stronghold in past and PC's really killed this community with lay-offs/lack of economic development, PEOPLE ARE MAD)
Both Brandon ridings (Brandon is feeling the lack of urban investment by the PC's as acutely as Winnipeg)
Springfield (traditional PC stronghold but NDP polling strong here lately as locals very pissed at Guillemard as environ minister and PC government for increasing industry in area with low regulation and lack of local support)