2019 election poll by poll results

[vid]

Originally Posted by SaskScraper

That is jaw dropping, it looks like percentage gain for the Conservatives in last Falls Federal Election in Newfoundland ridings was a lot more than the Conservative gains in Saskatchewan and probably even Alberta since the 2015 Election... I had no idea Andrew Scheer was so popular there.

Oh, it's not that Scheer was popular. It's that Harper was deeply, deeply unpopular. Right wing Newfoundlanders preferred Justin Trudeau over Stephen Harper. Compare 2019 to 2006, there's no major difference. Compare 2008 to 2006, and you'll see how much they absolutely loathed Harper.

[Loco101]

My poll in Timmins-James Bay:

LPC 36%

CPC 33%

NDP 27%

GPC 3%

PPC 2%

And my MP is NDP Charlie Angus.

Timmins like all cities in Northern Ontario has strong Liberal support at the federal level. What's really weird is seeing that the CPC actually won some polls here which I never thought would happen. Any poll in Timmins and the rest of the riding where at least 15% of the people are Indigenous was a definite win for the NDP.

Charlie Angus won with huge margins in the far North which wasn't a surprise due to over 90% of voters being Indigenous but he also won by a large margins in polls in Temiskaming District. (Kirkland Lake, Englehart, Earlton, etc.)

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by vid

Oh, it's not that Scheer was popular. It's that Harper was deeply, deeply unpopular. Right wing Newfoundlanders preferred Justin Trudeau over Stephen Harper. Compare 2019 to 2006, there's no major difference. Compare 2008 to 2006, and you'll see how much they absolutely loathed Harper.

Wasn’t that when Danny Williams had the whole province under his anti-federal-Tory spell?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Andy6

Wasn’t that when Danny Williams had the whole province under his anti-federal-Tory spell?

Yes, the 2008 election was the "ABC" election. In 2011 Danny was gone and the PC government at the time allowed their MHA's to endorse and campaign for some high profile Conservative candidates in the province (Fabian Manning, John Ottenheimer), but the hatred for Harper at that point was unfixable, even though the Conservative vote did recover quite a bit from 2008. The 2015 election was more or less the same as 2008, except the rest of the country joined us in the ABC vote.

The big difference between 2006 and 2019 though is that the NL Conservative vote has shifted westward into rural areas of the province. St. John's used to be a Conservative stronghold, but now it's more in line with other urban areas, with the NDP and Liberals strongly out in front. I don't think the CPC will ever be able to break 15% in either of the St. John's ridings ever again.

[Taeolas]

Looking at Fredericton, the only Green riding in the east. The core of the city and the North side went VERY green. The core is where we have a provincial Green MPP as well, but I'm a bit surprised the northside went that green as well.

Oromocto went blue, but green was a solid second place in most of the polls.

All told, maybe a dozen polls had Green come in 3rd place, mostly on the outskirts of the riding.

Looking to the west of Freddy, you can see the green did spread into the next ridings somewhat, but they weren't enough to beat the Blue tide. Once outside Freddy's influence, it quickly falls back to the old Red/Blue divide mainly.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I checked out the neighbouring riding of Beausejour, and the poll by poll results confirmed a suspicion for me.

Dominic LeBlanc is the anointed King of Beausejour, and they could run his dog as a candidate in the riding in perpetuity and the dog would be continually elected.........

But, the GRN candidate placed second in the riding with 27% of the vote. All of the polling stations that voted for the GRN candidate lay in the eastern part of the riding, centred around Sackville and extending up to Port Elgin and Cape Tormentine. There is a sharp dividing line between the Acadian part of the riding and the anglophone part of the riding.

Sackville is a university town (Mount Allison), and certainly some of the GRN supporters likely were environmentalists, but it should be noted that the LIB, CON & NDP all had francophone candidates, pandering to the Acadian majority. The GRN candidate on the other hand was anglophone (and unilingual I believe), so I have a strong suspicion that a good chunk of her support was as a result of a protest vote in favour of anglophone rights.......

Kent and Beausejour are a really good example of NB's shifting demographics.

Kent has always been affiliated with strong francophone and Acadien history and roots who in turn almost usually vote Liberal. With NB's demographics being the way we are we're seeing an aging-out of the Francophone population...and with interprovincial migration being the way it is that Francophone population is being replaced by Anglophones from either elsewhere in NB or from elsewhere in Canada.

What we get from this is LeBlanc, the engrained Acadien incumbent, barely scraping away with a winning margin in the northern part of the riding (Richibucto), losing out on votes to the not-so Acadien GPC candidate Reinsborough. Southern Kent, Shediac, and Dieppe are the remaining strongholds for LPC/LeBlanc in that riding, as Sackville seems to really like the GPC/GPNB as of late, for reasons you've outlined. Likewise, what used to be a very Francophone Acadien area in Cap-Pelé is now steadily becoming more English, making it more accessible to non-Liberal votes. You can see the GPC/CPC vote base creeping in to Cap-Pelé from the East.

You can also see this in the neighbouring riding of Miramichi-Grand Lake, where the GPC was in second place in Rogersville (likely thanks to their local MLA), which is otherwise a very strong Liberal area.

With NB's population shifting i'm really curious to see how the riding redistribution shakes out in 2023/2024. Ridings like Moncton and Fredericton will be tightening up as they densify, which will leave some fun redrawing to be done for the rural remains of the province. The more that Kent becomes Anglophone, and the more suburban Moncton that the Beausejour riding may include, the less likely a Liberal win is given the current voting environment.

[Docere]

Looking at some Toronto results. The Liberals won every single poll in York South-Weston and Scarborough Southwest.

[Docere]

Some observations for Toronto/GTA:

The central core (University-Rosedale/Spadina-Fort York/Toronto Centre) were pretty much an island of red, with little bits of orange around Kensington Market and to a lesser extent the Village (Annex is really Liberal now).

Greatly reduced NDP core vote limited mostly to southern Davenport, parts of Parkdale and the Junction, and a little bit around Leslieville and Gerrard-Coxwell.

Interesting split between "Chinese" and "non-Chinese" Scarborough. Tories are competitive in the Chinese community while South Asian and Black communities are super-Liberal

Tories having trouble in 905, but York Region is closer in contrast to the Mississauaga/Brampton/Milton/Ajax-type blowouts

[Hali87]

Originally Posted by someone123

I didn't really notice this before but the way the electoral map is drawn up in NS, 4 ridings are urban Halifax and 3 ridings are partly in the metro area. Only 4 of the 11 ridings are not significantly influenced by the city.

The semi-urban and urban ridings all went strongly Liberal (40%+) in 2019, while all of the other ridings were either weak Liberal and one was (barely) Conservative. Kings-Hants is an example of a riding that looks rural on paper but is really a quasi-urban/exurban riding, and it's been a safe Liberal riding since 2000. About half of the people living in West Hants are urban commuters.

The electoral map in NS could easily be drawn up differently to get a different result, although in 2019 it wouldn't have mattered much since the Liberals did so well in NS.

The vote distributions along the South Shore and Valley are interesting too. From Kentville through to Yarmouth it's alternating strips of red and blue - though beginning around Digby, it becomes more of a town/rural divide, with the Clare region notably going Liberal along with Digby and Yarmouth proper.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Docere

Some observations for Toronto/GTA:

The central core (University-Rosedale/Spadina-Fort York/Toronto Centre) were pretty much an island of red, with little bits of orange around Kensington Market and to a lesser extent the Village (Annex is really Liberal now).

Greatly reduced NDP core vote limited mostly to southern Davenport, parts of Parkdale and the Junction, and a little bit around Leslieville and Gerrard-Coxwell.

So no pockets of Tory Blue in uber-rich areas like Rosedale, Bridle Path? I admit I did not look at Toronto's map...

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Hali87

The vote distributions along the South Shore and Valley are interesting too. From Kentville through to Yarmouth it's alternating strips of red and blue - though beginning around Digby, it becomes more of a town/rural divide, with the Clare region notably going Liberal along with Digby and Yarmouth proper.

Interesting the pattern one sees in many rural parts of Atlantic Canada.

Towns (even smaller ones) tend to be Liberal. With surrounding rural areas generally leaning Conservative - unless they're predominantly Acadian in which case they lean Liberal.

You see this on both sides of Clare (which is majority Acadian and Liberal) as the towns of Digby and Yarmouth (not especially Acadian in either case) are Liberal but more anglo rural areas are blue.

The exception being Argyle south of Yarmouth which is close to half Acadian and where almost all polls including in Acadian towns went blue. I suspect a local boy phenom there: the Tory was named D'Entremont which is classic in that area. The Liberal (who lost to D'Entremont) in West Nova was a Deveau, which is a classic Clare Acadian name.

You have this going on in western PEI as well. Summerside (not very Acadian) is Liberal. Surrounding rural areas that are more Acadian (Mont-Carmel, Abram-Village) are red, and more anglo rural areas are blue.

[lubicon]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Interesting the pattern one sees in many rural parts of Atlantic Canada.

Towns (even smaller ones) tend to be Liberal. With surrounding rural areas generally leaning Conservative - unless they're predominantly Acadian in which case they lean Liberal.

You see this on both sides of Clare (which is majority Acadian and Liberal) as the towns of Digby and Yarmouth (not especially Acadian in either case) are Liberal but more anglo rural areas are blue.

The exception being Argyle south of Yarmouth which is close to half Acadian and where almost all polls including in Acadian towns went blue. I suspect a local boy phenom there: the Tory was named D'Entremont which is classic in that area. The Liberal (who lost to D'Entremont) in West Nova was a Deveau, which is a classic Clare Acadian name.

You have this going on in western PEI as well. Summerside (not very Acadian) is Liberal. Surrounding rural areas that are more Acadian (Mont-Carmel, Abram-Village) are red, and more anglo rural areas are blue.

That trend holds true across the entire country for the most part. Rural areas tend to be (or vote) more conservative than urban areas. Look at municipal politics, especially in major cities. They often are much more 'liberal' or progressive than the provincial and/or federal seats the represent the same areas.

[Docere]

Official results are now up on Elections Canada website.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So no pockets of Tory Blue in uber-rich areas like Rosedale, Bridle Path? I admit I did not look at Toronto's map...

How some of Canada's richest areas split their vote between the two main parties:


Westmount Liberals 59%, Conservatives 18%

Rosedale Liberals 56%, Conservatives 29%

Forest Hill Liberals 47%, Conservatives 38%

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Docere

How some of Canada's richest areas split their vote between the two parties:


Westmount Liberals 59%, Conservatives 18%

Rosedale Liberals 56%, Conservatives 29%

Forest Hill Liberals 47%, Conservatives 38%

And NDP? (In these three ridings, I find this an interesting minority).

[ssiguy]

I think the biggest take-away from the election results and the one that should scare the Tories the most is the how remarkably poorly they did in urban Canada outside the Prairies.

In Eastern Canada they got completely pulverized even more than I thought they would. Both Sheer and the Tories decided that they would play to their base and that's exactually what they got at the expense getting anyone else. Hopefully they will pick a leader and renew their policies so this doesn't happen again but I doubt it.

The Tories have always had a stellar reputation of blowing elections and always to the benefit of the Liberals. It's not so much due to the Liberals that they have become "Canada's natural governing party" but rather due to the Tories themselves.

[Docere]

Yes, the Tories have become too much of a regional party of the Prairies. They got well over 60% in Alberta and Saskatchewan, 45% in Manitoba and below 35% everywhere else.

[WarrenC12]

The CPC is failing to learn. They keep taking a strong stand that will only ever represent a small minority of Canadians. Same as the NDP on the other side.

[Nouvellecosse]

Wow I knew the CPC wasn't very popular in greater Halifax but I did't realise the extent! In all but one of the ridings the CPC wasn't even in the top two. In the main urban Hfx riding they finished 4th beaten even by the Greens with only 11.58%! In the Halifax west riding where they did finish 2nd, they got 19.29% compared to 49.46% Liberal!

[wave46]

Originally Posted by lubicon

That trend holds true across the entire country for the most part. Rural areas tend to be (or vote) more conservative than urban areas. Look at municipal politics, especially in major cities. They often are much more 'liberal' or progressive than the provincial and/or federal seats the represent the same areas.

It depends on the rural area.

Farm country definitely lean conservative, as do rural oil patch areas.

Rural resource-based areas (Northern Ontario, Newfoundland, Northern MB, Northern BC) tend to lean leftwards.

The suburbs are the great swing area. With a weak Liberal leader (see: 2008 & 2011), the Conservatives can take them with a plurality due to vote splitting.

The Conservatives have to be bland enough to encourage suburbanites to vote for them. It's their only path to victory.