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  #4361  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 2:34 PM
dmacc dmacc is offline
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Originally Posted by buzzg View Post
Glasshouse took quite some time but is mostly full now - although I do believe Urban Capital is using some unsold units as apartments. 300 Assiniboine is close to full as well. 390 Assiniboine has a ton of unsold units - this case is a little unique though as it’s owned by SCU as Sandhu went bankrupt on it, so because the owner is the bank, they aren’t really paying interest, so they’re not really offering discounts to rush it off the books.

TNS 2 (225 Carlton) is already almost 50% leased after just 3 months, so that’s pretty good.

All in all it really seems to be a bit of a crapshoot and really dependent on the developer here. Part of me wonders if some of the issues here have more to do with less experienced residential developers as opposed to the market. Like these buildings do work here, but the developers need to be more patient (aka have more liquid cash) with returns.
It seems like the two buildings that struggled were condo's, D Condo and Glass House. The Apartments appear to be doing quite fine. That makes a lot of sense as the condo market has been fairly saturated for some time now.

As for Artis, this is a REIT valued at over $1.5 billion and in fairly good financial health relative to the industry. It did have a poor year in terms of earning but that could be due to investments in assets.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/ca/real...t-trust-shares

Regardless, with likely 35%ish of the cost of this building already spent, with much of it going to the foundation to support the 40 storeys, why cut it in half to limit your possible returns after construction?
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  #4362  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 2:35 PM
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Originally Posted by pegcityboy View Post
I still find it hard to believe with their extensive portfolio that a $180 million apartment tower with upfront costs is even close to making them jump ship . Artis has lots of holdings so maybe they have calculated the capital costs off abit, but really are they out of money ?
Just to clarify so the speculation can continue - the budget is around $140 million for the tower. (***I edited this - previously stated $60 million)

My feeling is that it is just tough sledding for an inexperienced builder of a project of this scale.
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  #4363  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 2:48 PM
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My feeling is that it is just tough sledding for an inexperienced builder of a project of this scale.
It feels like so many major projects here have to deal with this factor... the developer who ends up in over their head.

I guess Winnipeg doesn't have the luxury of being on the radar of the big national firms who bang out massive towers in their sleep... the Tridels, the Concord Pacifics, etc.
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  #4364  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 4:02 PM
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My thinking is there are only a few that can confidently handle projects of this size - PCL of course then Bockstael, Bird, Graham and Ledcor. The last two would be aided by their sizable capacity outside of the province.

Bockstael has come a long way. They did a good job picking up on Glasshouse after NovaCon went out of business and are doing a great job on River Landing in Saskatoon. They made quick work on 290 Colony and will be building West Broadway Commons.


...I also think there are some complexities to this job that are generally not experienced with new tower builds. The fact that so much work needs to be done and constantly monitored while construction continues over top of an operating mall need to be factored in.
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  #4365  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 4:03 PM
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  #4366  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 4:33 PM
BuildUpWpg BuildUpWpg is offline
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Looks like a missed opportunity to have rooftop patio on top of the new earls? It's a perfect spot for it.

Yesterday down in the concourse, I overheard some construction workers talking, saying they are trying to find a way to create a temporary walkway to the skywalk over Graham, so that people don't have to go outside like they do now.

As for the financial problems Artis might be facing, you wouldn't know it based on the amount of activity going on site. Yesterday, from my perch across the street at BellMTS, I counted over 30 constructions workers in sight moving about on 300 and 330. This is the most I've every seen out there.

Next level of steel columns just started going up this morning!
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  #4367  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 4:37 PM
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Well, the core will have to raise now. The next 3 level columns are going up but they can only place hollow core on two because the slip form is in the way.
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  #4368  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 5:31 PM
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I guess I'll weigh in. I talk to some of these people occasionally and run into them all the time at 360.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post
What's with the fire suppression along the windows. Seems odd.

But yes, starting to come together!
Separate addresses. The concourse is 360 Main and above is 330, so it needs it.
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Originally Posted by buzzg View Post
I have heard recently from people in the industry very aware of this project, that the early rumblings were true – ARTIS is more or less out of money at this point and is desperately trying to sell off the entire property to keep the project afloat. Apparently all these steel delays with the bankrupted Chinese companies happened because they kept looking for the cheapest (often sketchy) suppliers they could find.

Sounds like ARTIS wasn't overly prepared for the amount of upfront capital required on an apartment complex vs. condos which you can pre-sell for more upfront cash. They were under the impression that things are looking very grim.
Well, this is the kind of stuff I deal with and that's not quite. Well, maybe the industry grumbled but that's not Artis' situation.

They had an awesome quarter and have been selling non-core assets for a while... they have money, they just want more. They've been aggressively buying back stock and have favourable analyst reviews based on their performance. They've have developed stuff bigger than this too.

As for their desire to sell, that was public information for over a year. It's a non-core asset, and it's very normal for REITs and large funds to aquire and dispose of assets to enable new opportunities.. These are not abnormal circumstances in the REIT/Financial world.

As far as trade bankruptcies, a lot of local or Canadian bankruptcies contributed tons as well, and according to people on the job site the steel met Canadian standards.
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I am sceptical of the project not going forward. They know what the ballpark costs are and when they will need to be paid. Every month of delay is 300-odd rent payments forgone, and if they can't sell it quickly then the only way to get money out of it is to get it built fast.

If they are losing money the only ways to mitigate it are to sell it fast or to get it built.
Well, as you said, they know the costs, they know the revenues. You don't stop any of that midway through. This block has been for sale for a long time, and none of that was a reaction. Based on their statements, that was a plan.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff View Post
Just to clarify so the speculation can continue - the budget is around $60 million for the tower.

My feeling is that it is just tough sledding for an inexperienced builder of a project of this scale.
I can promise you the budget was not ever 60M.

As for the builder, they're not a monster like PCL, yet some of the bankruptcies involved in this project are, ironically, from companies bigger than them. That's a minefield to navigate. They've done big stuff also.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuildUpWpg View Post
Looks like a missed opportunity to have rooftop patio on top of the new earls? It's a perfect spot for it.

Yesterday down in the concourse, I overheard some construction workers talking, saying they are trying to find a way to create a temporary walkway to the skywalk over Graham, so that people don't have to go outside like they do now.

As for the financial problems Artis might be facing, you wouldn't know it based on the amount of activity going on site. Yesterday, from my perch across the street at BellMTS, I counted over 30 constructions workers in sight moving about on 300 and 330. This is the most I've every seen out there.

Next level of steel columns just started going up this morning!
1. Agreed... I'd love a rooftop there. I guess Earl's or ARtis didn't. Boggles my mind.
2. Artis just had a killer quarter. They're alright. In fact, they've done great this last year. Hopefully we've slowed that speculation train down.
3. Time for that crane to get taller.
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  #4369  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 5:46 PM
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Re: Fire suppression.

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Originally Posted by Wolf13 View Post
Separate addresses. The concourse is 360 Main and above is 330, so it needs it.
That seems like such a stupid thing. Because on paper they have a different mailing address they need to route all these ugly pipes in front of the windows. Never mind the added costs and maintenance.
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  #4370  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 6:11 PM
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Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post
Re: Fire suppression.



That seems like such a stupid thing. Because on paper they have a different mailing address they need to route all these ugly pipes in front of the windows. Never mind the added costs and maintenance.
Other buildings in Winnipeg are like that with one building and two civic addresses. City Place is 234 Donald for the office tower address and the 2 mall levels are known as 333 St. Mary. Back in the 1980's the office tower used 330 Graham ave for the office tower address and the mall was 234 Donald.
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  #4371  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 6:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Wolf13 View Post

I can promise you the budget was not ever 60M.

As for the builder, they're not a monster like PCL, yet some of the bankruptcies involved in this project are, ironically, from companies bigger than them. That's a minefield to navigate. They've done big stuff also.
Not to be argumentative, just conversational but what projects of this size has Marwest done? In the past they built Parkway and Sterling Lyon Apartments on Sterling Lyon (4 storey - $15 millish each), and some other 4 storey builds in the same budget range. They are mostly known for shopping centre and strip CRU builds.

I was incorrect about the budget - wrong 300 project. 300 Main about $140 mill, 300 Assiniboine - $60 mill.
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  #4372  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 6:42 PM
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^^ Thanks for the insights, Wolf13. I think there will always be some apprehension when a big project like this seems to be going slower than we would like to see, but as you seemed to indicate there are a lot of moving parts that have to work together to get something like this finished.

Good to see that steel reach the bottom of the slip form. Now let's see some height added to the core!
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  #4373  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2019, 8:41 PM
Wolf13 Wolf13 is offline
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Originally Posted by Biff View Post
Not to be argumentative, just conversational but what projects of this size has Marwest done? In the past they built Parkway and Sterling Lyon Apartments on Sterling Lyon (4 storey - $15 millish each), and some other 4 storey builds in the same budget range. They are mostly known for shopping centre and strip CRU builds.

I was incorrect about the budget - wrong 300 project. 300 Main about $140 mill, 300 Assiniboine - $60 mill.
Oh I'm not claiming they're big. Just that they do more than people think.

It's hard to gauge, because some of it's a while back, but they've done high rises up to 30 stories in CGY i believe. Some of those key figures are still at Marwest. I also know they did a 100M+ portfolio in Sask recently. They're also working on a, rough guess, 120M project right now in Winnipeg.

They also were essentially Artis' part of Centrepoint, and (just going by what they've told me) have other irons in the fire across the country. Once in a blue moon I speak to them, and I've seen a rendering or two some months back... but I was also asked not to share. Which is lame.
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  #4374  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2019, 2:41 AM
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Earls is having a rooftop patio. Also I was told that the one along Graham in the renders may have to be deleted, Artis hasn't confirmed with them yet (as of 3 months ago).
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  #4375  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 4:44 PM
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Oh I'm not claiming they're big. Just that they do more than people think.

It's hard to gauge, because some of it's a while back, but they've done high rises up to 30 stories in CGY i believe. Some of those key figures are still at Marwest. I also know they did a 100M+ portfolio in Sask recently. They're also working on a, rough guess, 120M project right now in Winnipeg.

They also were essentially Artis' part of Centrepoint, and (just going by what they've told me) have other irons in the fire across the country. Once in a blue moon I speak to them, and I've seen a rendering or two some months back... but I was also asked not to share. Which is lame.
What is Marwest building on the lot across Lowe's on Kenaston?
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  #4376  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 5:45 PM
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I haven't seen in mentioned but the construction on the mall level for the escalators to GoodLife. You can also see up into the GoodLife space through the windows around centre court in the mall. Definitely looks close to finished but obviously with some last minute work still happening.
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  #4377  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 5:52 PM
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What is Marwest building on the lot across Lowe's on Kenaston?
It's a Marks Work Warehouse and another CRU.
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  #4378  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 6:35 PM
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Thanks Biff.
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  #4379  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 7:49 PM
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Some of the negative comments made above make me wonder how likely we are to see future major (over 30 floor) hi-rises when it seems so expensive and risky in Winnipeg?
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  #4380  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2019, 10:09 PM
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Some of the negative comments made above make me wonder how likely we are to see future major (over 30 floor) hi-rises when it seems so expensive and risky in Winnipeg?
Considering how half the local apartments around Downtown Winnipeg are rundown, burned by junkies and overall terrifying to live in - mostly the Armour buildings and others that can barely afford renos, repairs and security - I can see at least some more apartments in downtown. Maybe enough demand for another apartment tower, or two. But honestly, they need to have cheaper apartments. So if its gonna be another Soviet pre-fab that will have affordable rent for all, then I could see more towers coming in, absolutely yes. But those $1200+ per month rents, in a city and province where you can barely get 1200 in minimal wage full-time work, along with house conversions into apartments and rental suites?

The cheaper, the more likely. But those luxury apartments in Winnipeg are going to be a tough sell, unless Pallister and Bowman start bringing out these things called "jobs" above $1200/m in net pay.
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