Record Wave of Americans Fled Big Cities for Small Ones in 2023

[ChrisLA]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I can always spot the person who wasn't old enough to understand how fantastically bad the late 70s, 80s, and 90s were for America's cities. Some of the poshest parts of todays' tier 1 American cities were shit holes.

To hear these people claim that crime is out of control in these very same cities that have basically re-populated (some of them to their all time highs) and (nearly) completely eliminated blight is just fantastically disconnected from reality.

I mean. You basically have to go to East New York in Brooklyn to find some semblence of urban grit at this point. It used to be at the first stop of every subway line leading from Manhattan into Brooklyn.

You can def tell who watches Fox News on these message boards.

I’m grew up in the 70’s yes in some ways crime was worse, but it was different. Most of it was in the inner cities (murders, gangs, homes getting broken into etc), and not so much as it is today reaching the most distance parts of the suburban communities. I grew up in a very poor and rough part of the city (Watts), it was the one of the roughest part of south Central LA (East Side).

My siblings and I seen some things growing up, but yet nothing like the crazy we see today. I can tell you about the things that happened on public transportation such as kids jumping other kids, purses being snatched, gambling, and people announcing very loud gang affiliation, and buses being targeted and rocks busting out windows. Passenger s would duck when we pass through the projects to avoid getting hit by huge rocks coming through the windows. I remember seeing an old woman eyes cut from the shattered glass on a bus one time.

So my point is, today may not be as bad (especially not in the hood) but it’s all over the place. I’m used to seeing drunks, crackheads, homeless people, stepped over many just transferring buses in downtown LA every morning in high school back in the late 70’s.

Yes it is quite different today, I see crazy in all areas today. It’s not a California thing either, and as someone like myself gets older you don’t have the strength to fend off some younger crazy person. Also back when I was growing up, gangs would fight more than just shoot, and yes this was when crips were terrorizing the neighborhoods. I can’t even recall the crazy things happening on public transportation to the extent it is today. As a kid I rode the bus everywhere to the most distant parts of the LA metropolitan area, one used to be able to escape most craziness once you leave the inner city neighborhoods, but not today. It’s a very different society sickness today that was not happening back in the 60’s-80’s.

[LA21st]

Yea, I have a friend who grew up in Lakeview, Chicago in the 80s and he still has bad memories of people getting mugged and beat up with baseball bats in broad daylight. No matter how much its changed now, he can't forget how bad it was.

I heard Wicker Park was scary as hell in the 80s/70s.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

That's unfortunate from my perspective.

My parents are pushing 80 and still fully take part in city life: theater, restaurants, museum exhibitions, art fairs, farmers markets, etc.

One of my mom's favorite sayings: "the moment you stop walking is the very moment you start dying".

I plan to follow in their footsteps instead of running out the clock alone as a perpetual homebody.

My point is that as people get older, they are more content with simply 'being' rather than go out having to go out for stimulation. I'm sure your parents, as active as they are, enjoy downtime more so than they would have 30-40 years ago. I hated sitting home on the weekends and most weeknights but I'm ok with it now even though I still go out and do things on a regular basis. Just got back from a cruise and going to Alaska in a few days. Comic Con when I get back...

But his point wasn't about technology making it easier to be a hermit these days.

His claim was very specifically about "city dwellers" and how MOST of them never leave their apartments.

He provided absolutely nothing to back up his utterly absurd contention.

Where are these people getting perceptions about crime and social problems from? Their phones, social media, cable news, etc. This is nothing new just now that technology has enabled people to perpetuate their paranoia in ways they could not before. Covid lockdowns further stifled socialization by encouraging people to be homebodies which was especially harmful to younger people. People have always thought cities were crime ridden cesspools but now they can avoid being in contact with them as much as possible.

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Yea, I have a friend who grew up in Lakeview, Chicago in the 80s and he still has bad memories of people getting mugged and beat up with baseball bats in broad daylight. No matter how much its changed now, he can't forget how bad it was.

I heard Wicker Park was scary as hell in the 80s/70s.

Yeah even in the late 90s it was still v rough around the edges. the majority of gentrified areas on the north side of chicago were still no go zones in the mid 90s for us peeps from the southside.
Btw alot of Steven Seagals first movie. "Above the Law" was filmed around wicker park in 1988. You can get a good idea of what the neighborhood looked like at the time.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Obadno

The revival of rural and middle America is a good thing.

Now that commodities are likely to become more expensive after decades of oversupply this will help tons of smaller towns in north America.

I do agree with this. It's a great thing. Could make the country less divided with economic prosperity were more widespread. I think in a lot of ways, the turn around in America's smaller metros are well underway which is one of the reasons why I don't understand why the country is still so divided.

But, I think we've also covered extensively that this is a trend that is most prominent in small metros that are satellites to much larger metros.

Examples, include the Lehigh Valley in PA (which is booming)...which includes Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton (about 60ish miles from Philly and 80 miles from NYC). Lancaster PA (60ish miles west of Philly, about 90 miles from DC), etc etc.

Others I can think of are Clarksville in TN. Maybe Augusta in GA, etc etc.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by ChrisLA

So my point is, today may not be as bad (especially not in the hood) but it’s all over the place. I’m used to seeing drunks, crackheads, homeless people, stepped over many just transferring buses in downtown LA every morning in high school back in the late 70’s.

Maybe this is a sunbelt city thing. It's not "all over the place" in the older cities of the east coast. Generally, you leave city proper boundaries and to the extent that there is (at least visible) crime, it's confined to lower income boros and hamlets.

[Crawford]

NY Post right on cue with the scoop, LOL. Libtards are fleeing the crime and chaos of Seattle and San Diego for the red state glories of Idaho...

Residents from liberal cities are flocking to this new red state haven amid rising crime and chaos
https://nypost.com/2024/05/08/real-e...d-state-haven/

I'd flock to this "red state haven" too, but the "rising crime and chaos" keeps me safely locked away in my apartment.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

NY Post right on cue with the scoop, LOL. Libtards are fleeing the crime and chaos of Seattle and San Diego for the red state glories of Idaho...

Residents from liberal cities are flocking to this new red state haven amid rising crime and chaos
https://nypost.com/2024/05/08/real-e...d-state-haven/

I'd flock to this "red state haven" too, but the "rising crime and chaos" keeps me safely locked away in my apartment.

From the article:

“You’re worried about someone else besides yourself,” Kostenborder told the Daily Mail. “So you start to notice threats more. Like, it’s no longer charming to have the homeless guy asleep in front of the grocery store. Now it’s like, all right, this actually might be dangerous.”

wut? When has it ever been charming to have homeless people sleeping on the street? lol

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

My point is that as people get older, they are more content with simply 'being' rather than go out having to go out for stimulation. I'm sure your parents, as active as they are, enjoy downtime more so than they would have 30-40 years ago.

The vast majority of people at any and every age benefit from some balance of "out and about" time and "down" time.

The specifics of the equation of that balance vary greatly from person to person, and can also vary with age and life stage.

But I simply do not buy the argument that "big city living" automatically becomes less appealing for everyone as they age.

Some people may feel that way.

Others don't.

Strokes and folks and drumbeats and all that..........


As for my parents, they're probably out and about more these days than they were 40 years ago because they no longer have young children to tend to.

Now it me who's stuck in the "children blackhole".

Originally Posted by JManc

Where are these people getting perceptions about crime and social problems from? Their phones, social media, cable news, etc. This is nothing new just now that technology has enabled people to perpetuate their paranoia in ways they could not before. Covid lockdowns further stifled socialization by encouraging people to be homebodies which was especially harmful to younger people. People have always thought cities were crime ridden cesspools but now they can avoid being in contact with them as much as possible.

But his point wasn't about technology making it easier to be a hermit these days.

His claim was very specifically about "city dwellers" and how MOST of them never leave their apartments.

He provided absolutely nothing to back up his utterly absurd contention.

[TWAK]

GIT out, there's only room for one urbanist in each micropolitan rural area.
I made this move in 2018, so pre-COVID and full bragging rights as the only person in America to move to a rural area from an urban one .

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by Crawford

NY Post right on cue with the scoop, LOL. Libtards are fleeing the crime and chaos of Seattle and San Diego for the red state glories of Idaho...

Residents from liberal cities are flocking to this new red state haven amid rising crime and chaos
https://nypost.com/2024/05/08/real-e...d-state-haven/

I'd flock to this "red state haven" too, but the "rising crime and chaos" keeps me safely locked away in my apartment.

I'd be happy if the NY Post Editorial Board and ownership fled to Idaho. Ironic for some reason they don't.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The vast majority of people at any and every age benefit from some balance of "out and about" time and "down" time.

The specifics of the equation of that balance vary greatly from person to person, and can also vary with age and life stage.

But I simply do not buy the argument that "big city living" automatically becomes less appealing for everyone as they age.

Some people may feel that way.

Others don't.

Strokes and folks and drumbeats and all that..........

Everyone? No. Many? Yes.

Like I said, the older one gets, the less urban amenities you partake in and less "unappealing" a smaller area with less amenities seems. I moved to the Bay Area in 2022 and I absolutely loved it, didn't want to leave but I'm sure if I were 20 years younger, I would have enjoyed it much more. I personally would never not live in a major metro area but if I had to, it would suck less than if I were 25.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

Everyone? No.

Great, so we agree!

Originally Posted by jmanc

like i said, the older I get, the less urban amenities I partake in and less "unappealing" a smaller area with less amenities seems to me.

ftfy.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

ftfy.

I forget this is the internet and I could be misconstrued as being absolute rather than generalizing.

[edale]

Originally Posted by ChrisLA

My siblings and I seen some things growing up, but yet nothing like the crazy we see today. I can tell you about the things that happened on public transportation such as kids jumping other kids, purses being snatched, gambling, and people announcing very loud gang affiliation, and buses being targeted and rocks busting out windows. Passenger s would duck when we pass through the projects to avoid getting hit by huge rocks coming through the windows. I remember seeing an old woman eyes cut from the shattered glass on a bus one time.

When you hear stories like this, I can totally understand why people who had the means to escape cities in the 60s-80s did so. Who would willingly subject themselves and their families to shit like this? Having to duck on the bus when you passed by the projects to avoid getting hit by rocks? I don't think poverty can explain that type of behavior away. You can be completely destitute and still know it's wrong to throw rocks at people passing through your neighborhood on the bus. And then the people in these neighborhoods wonder why people with means moved away, businesses closed, restaurants won't deliver to these areas, they live in 'food deserts', etc.

[TWAK]

Any downturn that hits is far worse for rural areas and this place is still recovering from the Great Recession. The lower the population I would think, the longer it takes since there's not much to prop the area back up.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by eschaton

If we were seeing a record outflux from urban cores, then real estate prices would be collapsing in metro areas.

We aren't seeing that at all.

Thats not necessarily true at all. First of all, private equity firms are buying up everything, which is keeping prices high.

Secondly, a 3-bedroom house which in the 90's had two parents and 3 kids, with a monthly mortgage of $2000 (adjusted for inflation into 2024 dollars) will now house 3 individual roommates, each of whom is paying a landlord, say, $900/month.

Population down, price up.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't think people that actually live in big cities share this perception. The opinions of Americans that don't live in big cities doesn't really matter to this point, since they wouldn't be the group driving population losses.

What???

Every big city ive lived in (St. Louis, Denver, Boston, Seattle) has tons of people in the city limits and inner-ring suburbs, nevermind the bona fide suburbs, who are afraid to go downtown or say its gotten more dangerous, dont go there as often anymore, etc. I would even say this is a majority opinion among people over 40 in St. Louis. i even know one 20-something coworker here in Seattle who refuses to go downtown (we arent friends lol).

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I have *personally* encountered people afraid of downtown in the following cities:
STL
Chicago
Denver
Boston
SF
Kansas City
Seattle
Nashville
Houston
Atlanta
Cincinatti

The media, particularly the TV news, needs to be held responsible for this derangement. It should be a lot more common for cities to sue for libel. The city of Chicago ought to have sued the f*** out of fox news YEARS ago, for example.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jbermingham123

Its crazy to me, particularly in relatively safe seattle. absolutely crazy. but perceptions dont care about reality.

I've never met these people. I know plenty of people who think crazy things, but never heard of someone who willingly chooses an urban environment and simultaneously believes the craziest alt right conspiracies about urban living.

No doubt they exist, but again, irrelevant to the thread, which is about metropolitan migration, not urban migration. This is about people in Bellevue supposedly moving to Idaho or Montana, not people in downtown Seattle moving to Bellevue.

[jbermingham123]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I've never met these people. I know plenty of people who think crazy things, but never heard of someone who willingly chooses an urban environment and simultaneously believes the craziest alt right conspiracies about urban living.

No doubt they exist, but again, irrelevant to the thread, which is about metropolitan migration, not urban migration. This is about people in Bellevue supposedly moving to Idaho or Montana, not people in downtown Seattle moving to Bellevue.

I know. i was replying to what iheartted said.

And its not irrelevant. The (primarily older) people who think these things are the ones who are most likely to leave, given the chance. Im not saying *all* baby boomers think these things, or that *all* of them want to move. But it doesnt take that many boomers leaving to get the kind of numbers we are talking about, when you consider that a a sizeable percentage of the migration is young people anyway.