Business in Winnipeg

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by esquire

I'm more pessimistic than ever about the state of downtown. What will end up happening is that once events return and workers start returning in significant numbers the professional boosters will cheer and claim that the problem is over, but we know it won't be that easy. Covid has pretty well killed any sort of large-scale downtown retail... all that's left beyond Giant Tiger is niche boutiques. Losing all of those 9-5 workers has clearly taken a huge toll on downtown business that were probably just hanging in there before this all went down, and I doubt those types of retailers will reopen once the workers are back.

When he was mayor, Glen Murray used to say that downtown shapes the image that visitors have of the city. And the image that downtown presents now is bad. No one is going to walk or drive down Portage and be impressed with what they see.

The usual retort to this is "well, it'll be OK once we get more people living downtown". But how do you change the situation when you're building maybe one significant residential building every couple of years? People weren't exactly clamoring to live downtown before covid and I don't see what has changed since then that will cause them to flock downtown. I think the situation is becoming dire but I suppose it will take a bit of time for that reality to set in.

Downtown has its problems but large scale retail in downtown is not going to be viable until the population is atleast doubled. I mean 16,000 people is nowhere near enough so yea the crux of the issue is that we still need more people downtown.

I do believe if Downtown would have a large retail presence there will be a great place for it around the area near Earls on Main extending to the Forks and into Graham Mall once the demographics to support this type of retail is ready. And either way physical shopping is slowly declining because of the convenience and selection that online shopping provides.

I have a gut feeling once the majority of stores open and the Jets are back selling out crowds it will feel at least a bit better then the desolate environment it currently is.

But either way hopefully developers see the untapped potential and create residential and mixed use complexes, especially affordable housing to bring the younger demographic as well as immigrants and indigenous people to create a vibrant scene daily!

[thebasketballgeek]

In other news https://accesswinnipeg.com/2021/07/m...-cf-polo-park/

The article says it’s a Chinese based retailer but it’s the “Japanese version of dollarama.” Either way whatever country Miniso is from its great to see stores like this popping up throughout the city.

[Ando]

Originally Posted by esquire

I'm more pessimistic than ever about the state of downtown. What will end up happening is that once events return and workers start returning in significant numbers the professional boosters will cheer and claim that the problem is over, but we know it won't be that easy. Covid has pretty well killed any sort of large-scale downtown retail... all that's left beyond Giant Tiger is niche boutiques. Losing all of those 9-5 workers has clearly taken a huge toll on downtown business that were probably just hanging in there before this all went down, and I doubt those types of retailers will reopen once the workers are back.

When he was mayor, Glen Murray used to say that downtown shapes the image that visitors have of the city. And the image that downtown presents now is bad. No one is going to walk or drive down Portage and be impressed with what they see.

The usual retort to this is "well, it'll be OK once we get more people living downtown". But how do you change the situation when you're building maybe one significant residential building every couple of years? People weren't exactly clamoring to live downtown before covid and I don't see what has changed since then that will cause them to flock downtown. I think the situation is becoming dire but I suppose it will take a bit of time for that reality to set in.

The whole country and downtowns everywhere have been put through the wringer, and still are. These things take time to recover from. It’s like you are inspecting a bombed out city at the end of a war and lamenting what a terrible state everything is in. You are right to be concerned, but at the same time one has to understand the context.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Ando

The whole country and downtowns everywhere have been put through the wringer, and still are. These things take time to recover from. It’s like you are inspecting a bombed out city at the end of a war and lamenting what a terrible state everything is in. You are right to be concerned, but at the same time one has to understand the context.

I take your point... every place will face challenges to some extent. The trouble is that downtown Winnipeg has very little cushion to fall back on. It was struggling even before the pandemic. A lot of hard earned progress from the last 20+ years has been lost over the last year and a half, and I don't think it will be easy to get back even to where things were in 2019.

[drew]

Winnipeg just needs to keep doing what it has for the last 20 years. Encouraging more and more people to live downtown, and repurposing struggling and/or underused commercial buildings into residential (next targets are The Bay, Portage Place, Boyd Building).

The powers that be should be saying shut up and take my money to anyone with a reasonable plan to get more people living downtown. That includes that group looking to redevelop PP.

It's a slow process. But we know all about slow here.

[esquire]

The trouble for Winnipeg is that downtown retail is completely dead now which will inhibit residential growth. It was probably a lot easier to sell people on living downtown when you had at least a basic selection of shops not only for convenience's sake, but also to inject the streets with a little beauty and vitality.

[drew]

^the services pre-pandemic weren't really great anyway. Certainly not a make or break scenario for anyone contemplating a move IMO.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by esquire

I take your point... every place will face challenges to some extent. The trouble is that downtown Winnipeg has very little cushion to fall back on. It was struggling even before the pandemic. A lot of hard earned progress from the last 20+ years has been lost over the last year and a half, and I don't think it will be easy to get back even to where things were in 2019.

Historically downtown Winnipeg has had a lot of struggles, and as of 2019 still had a long way to go, but I don't think it's totally fair to categorize it as "struggling" before the pandemic. 2010 - 2020 was the best period of growth for downtown in my lifetime, easy. Strong population growth for more than a decade, record numbers of people living downtown. TNS, the biggest development in downtown's history being built. I agree that there's not as much "cushion" as other downtowns have so it still feels precarious and tough that we may have lost that momentum.

Originally Posted by esquire

The trouble for Winnipeg is that downtown retail is completely dead now which will inhibit residential growth. It was probably a lot easier to sell people on living downtown when you had at least a basic selection of shops not only for convenience's sake, but also to inject the streets with a little beauty and vitality.

I don't get the obsession with retail to be honest. Brick and mortar retail is a dying sector, period. Most busy urban areas thrive on food & drink now, not retail. And what exactly closed anyway? Are we freaking out over a damn Staples? Doesn't every office just get supplies delivered now? The Bay's days were numbered a long time ago and it's not exactly like it was a vital destination considering nobody ever went in there. Lots of small shops are still hanging on in the Exchange.

[esquire]

I suppose in some respects retail is not an end in itself, but it's a bit of a proxy for the overall health of a downtown area. A strong, successful neighbourhood (whether it's a downtown area or not) tends to draw retailers. But Downtown Winnipeg (at least the Downtown BIZ area) really has no continuous retail strips left anymore. It's just what's left of the Graham and Portage retail strips, and what remains of the malls.

[Ando]

You've spent some time setting out what you believe are the challenges, although it's clear not everyone buys into things being as bad as all that. The next step is setting out the steps that need to be taken in address those challenges.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by EdwardTH

I don't get the obsession with retail to be honest. Brick and mortar retail is a dying sector, period. Most busy urban areas thrive on food & drink now, not retail. And what exactly closed anyway? Are we freaking out over a damn Staples? Doesn't every office just get supplies delivered now? The Bay's days were numbered a long time ago and it's not exactly like it was a vital destination considering nobody ever went in there. Lots of small shops are still hanging on in the Exchange.

I have to agree with you. The majority of Winnipegger's don't live in area's with high concentrations of retail. Let's be honest, again the majority of people that will be moving downtown will still have a vehicle. So what is the difference between someone moving into 300 Main and my life out here in the burbs? We still drive to get groceries and house hold supplies.

In my mind the benefit for people wanting to live downtown is to be in the action, likely close to the office and to be able to go out for dinner and drinks regularly within walking distance. I don't think they wouldn't still be going to Costco or Sobey's or Home Depot. Restaurants and entertainment seem to be the draw. Not shopping a Jessica's Bridal, Hilary Druxman or Toad Hall Toys.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Biff

So what is the difference between someone moving into 300 Main and my life out here in the burbs? We still drive to get groceries and house hold supplies.

In some respects that is the problem, though. I don't know about you, but when I "live" in other places (i.e. staying in hotels and airbnbs in other cities), I often seek out lively urban areas. Quite often this means being on or near an urban high street which is welcoming to pedestrians, which has many other people walking around and is not desolate, has an interesting selection of shops and restaurants, and you can easily step out to find the things you need without having to drive anywhere.

I mean, if you have to drive out to Kenaston to get your basics then you might as well just live in Waverley West.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by Biff

I have to agree with you. The majority of Winnipegger's don't live in area's with high concentrations of retail. Let's be honest, again the majority of people that will be moving downtown will still have a vehicle. So what is the difference between someone moving into 300 Main and my life out here in the burbs? We still drive to get groceries and house hold supplies.

In my mind the benefit for people wanting to live downtown is to be in the action, likely close to the office and to be able to go out for dinner and drinks regularly within walking distance. I don't think they wouldn't still be going to Costco or Sobey's or Home Depot. Restaurants and entertainment seem to be the draw. Not shopping a Jessica's Bridal, Hilary Druxman or Toad Hall Toys.

Living downtown means you can use your car once per week to run errands instead of using it every day. Or you can just use the car co-op and not own a car at all.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Ando

You've spent some time setting out what you believe are the challenges, although it's clear not everyone buys into things being as bad as all that. The next step is setting out the steps that need to be taken in address those challenges.

Good question. In some respects supply is no longer a major issue as there have been several residential projects downtown at various price points with more in the pipeline. Developers have shown a willingness to provide housing if people are interested.

Demand is the real problem here, and there are at least two dimensions here. What makes downtown relatively unappealing, and what makes suburban areas such a strong draw? If you go around the Perimeter you can see so many new subdivisions going up, many with multifamily housing... it looks like the 80s again with all that sprawl. Is all that construction killing demand for central neighbourhoods? (Not just downtown, but older inner areas too)

[Biff]

I just think downtown will evolve into strictly office, entertainment, dining and specialty stores. When and if it really gets a density that requires things like grocery stores beyond the smaller ones already existing I think they will show up.

[esquire]

To be clear, I am not expecting downtown to return to the days of the 1950s with packed sidewalks and stores lining all of Portage Avenue. But what I would like to see is even just a couple of blocks of the kinds of normal urban streetscapes that you see in most other bigger cities.

Hell, I would settle for a couple blocks that look like this one in Regina... mostly continuous streetwall, lined with nice storefronts and office buildings, appealing pedestrian environment. https://goo.gl/maps/razaujnrRJiNZ6S6A

[trueviking]

seriously, I was just in Saskatoon and was amazed that their downtown has several streets with actual shops. They also have a couple nice neighbourhood high streets with storefronts all the way down with trendy restaurants and shops. Nothing like that at all in Winnipeg with three times the population.

[Ando]

In the immediate future, surely government resources are going to be needed to help areas like the downtown recover. For example, the federal government just announced $12 million for the Winnipeg airport to help in Covid recovery. Unfortunately, the current provincial government doesn't seem to have the inclination to provide those types of resources, in particular Winnipeg. I really believe targeted government resources are going to be needed. Otherwise, you're right, the road back will be a long one.

[Ando]

Is this really such a tremendous mystery? A lot of it has to do with wealth. In 1950, Manitoba ranked 4th in GDP per capita and Saskatchewan ranked 6th. Fast forward to 2016, and Manitoba was 6th and Saskatchewan 2nd, according to Stats Can data. Wealthier areas can attract the kind of investment that creates thriving streetscapes.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019009-eng.htm

[trueviking]

I don't think good streetscapes have anything to do with money. Moose Jaw has a beautiful downtown main street. Fargo even has one.