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  #181  
Old Posted Mar 2, 2020, 11:43 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
California has significantly higher taxes and GDP per capita than the US as a whole.

Good thing we have real live examples to show what happens under different philosophies.

Give this a read:

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-e...622-story.html
Yes I agree that sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. In the end it really depends on how good the government, policies, and laws are.

I will point out that California has run its economy into the ground (which isn't the fault of high taxes but instead short-term feel-good spending rather than investment in infastructure).

Quote:
How much in debt are the California governments? That’s hard to know too. According to a January 2017 study, “California state and local governments owe $1.3 trillion as of June 30, 2015.” The study was based on “a review of federal, state and local financial disclosures.”

In other words, that $1.3 trillion in debt is the amount to which California governments admit. Other studies believe it to be more. Indeed, one study says it is actually $2.3 trillion and a recent Hoover Institute stated that there is over $1 trillion in pension liability alone, or $76,884 per household. Incredibly, there are 4 million current pension beneficiaries, a number that continues to grow and which exceeds the total population of 22 states.
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On the other hand, for more than a decade, less than 150,000 of California’s 35+ million people pay half of all of its income tax – a highly imbalanced system.

Now, many might think California needs all of those taxes given its infrastructure deficit and debt. The problem with that notion is that those prolonged high taxes, debt burden and regulations limit California’s economic future. After all, why would businesses locate in California in the future with the impending tax-aggeddon that must be in the offing?

Also, California’s middle class has been hollowed. A recent CNBC headline read: "Californians fed up with housing costs and taxes are fleeing state in big numbers." Where are they going? Many have left for low tax states offering more jobs than California.
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Gavin Newsom, Kevin de Leon, Xavier Becerra and Kamala Harris also support some form of significantly expanded healthcare benefits if not universal healthcare – which is estimated to cost as much as $400 billion a year (that is not a typo). All of them support the California magnet policies that attracted so many of those in California illegally. In fact, there is no indication that the next generation has any concern for the future debt. Instead, they support higher taxes.

What taxes will those be? Within a decade you can expect higher income taxes and sales taxes. There is always a movement afoot to do away with California’s landmark property tax protection known as Prop 13. You also can expect a service tax – a tax on lawyers and accountants as well as hairdressers and gardeners. That service tax would be on top of the existing income tax. Beyond all of that, sooner or later an asset tax will be proposed. California counties already collect an asset tax on businesses. Look for that to be proposed statewide as California lurches ever farther to the Left and if forced to confront future debt.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasd.../#614156f73a23

The problem with California is faced with the prospect of going bankrupt, they raise taxes rather than reign in spending. And its an endless cycle just like in Canada where more people rely on that spending which means they all vote for more taxes which means more spending and even higher taxes until the rich give up or leave.

California could indeed be successful with high taxes. But its not because it also has high, short-term minded spending.
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  #182  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2020, 10:14 PM
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Not saying you should but this is an interesting article:

Quote:
Markets are fearful and history tells us that means the time to buy is right now
Ted Rechtshaffen: Data on how markets react after a 15% decline clearly shows that big pullbacks make great entry points
https://business.financialpost.com/i...y-is-right-now
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  #183  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 6:36 PM
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Talk is that the feds will cut rates to 0 within the coming months. I assume Canada would follow if not lead this.

Its kind of funny how housing prices go up with lower rates, but how they might go down with a recession. Kind of a very imprecise balancing act between them when judging where our market may go. Alberta and the Prairies will see large drops, but as we know the Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal market do not necessarily follow the Prairie market. As long as unemployment doesn't rise in the East or West I'd expect large gains there with a large downturn in the middle.

Also talk of China, America, Canada, and the rest of the G8 all pumping money into their nations to prevent a recession. Its kind of obvious that Canada is relying on our real estate economy to help reduce any downturn in other sectors.

https://business.financialpost.com/i..._autoplay=true
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  #184  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 6:46 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Gonna be busy paying off my mortgage in record time!
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  #185  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 6:47 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Gonna be busy paying off my mortgage in record time!
What's a mortgage?
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  #186  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 6:50 PM
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
What's a mortgage?
Easy there west side NIMBY.

I was mortgage free but needed new digs.
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  #187  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 8:26 PM
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What's a mortgage?
My mortgage is coming up for renewal this October. Hmmm.
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  #188  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 8:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
My mortgage is coming up for renewal this October. Hmmm.
I'm considering getting one...rents are high enough now mortgage payments+costs are still less than the rent if strata fees are low and the tenant is reliable.
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  #189  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 9:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by misher View Post
Yes I agree that sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. In the end it really depends on how good the government, policies, and laws are.

I will point out that California has run its economy into the ground (which isn't the fault of high taxes but instead short-term feel-good spending rather than investment in infastructure).







https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasd.../#614156f73a23

The problem with California is faced with the prospect of going bankrupt, they raise taxes rather than reign in spending. And its an endless cycle just like in Canada where more people rely on that spending which means they all vote for more taxes which means more spending and even higher taxes until the rich give up or leave.

California could indeed be successful with high taxes. But its not because it also has high, short-term minded spending.
Lived in California the last few years. This is pure nonsense. And Forbes has become a shit magazine that let's anybody publish clickbait opinion pieces. If California's government is going bust, there are going to be dozens states that will have already gone bust before them. These bullshit conservative commentary pieces (that too from 2018), never talk about the fact that California is running budget surpluses and that for every low income resident it loses, it gains somebody in the top 5%. Reality here is that California is gentrifying. Shipping out their lower educated and lower income and sucking in educated professionals from across the country and the world.

Surplus:
Quote:
California is expected to have a $7 billion budget surplus next year, … A report from the bipartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office says California’s savings account could grow to more than $18 billion by the end of 2021.
https://apnews.com/49a32678fe454ab083b2929c449a07c2

Gentrification:
Quote:
People making $55,000 or less a year were mostly moving out of California between 2007 and 2016, the report found, while people making more than $200,000 a year moved in.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...htmlstory.html
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  #190  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 9:16 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
California has significantly higher taxes and GDP per capita than the US as a whole.

Good thing we have real live examples to show what happens under different philosophies.

Give this a read:

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-e...622-story.html
For however much American conservatives (and their foreign fangirls) love to complain about California, you still don't see major industries (entertainment, tech, etc.) decamping for lower tax states. Why didn't Apple build it's $5B HQ in Texas or Oklahoma? Why didn't Tesla set up in Kansas? Oh sure, they move some staff out to Texas or North Carolina. But the best paid staff? Keep them all in CA.

For all the bullshit commentary, people who've never spent time there have zero clue about all the policies that CA has to protect those industries. And because they don't care to learn about them, they just can't understand why even 0% corporate taxes isn't bringing the next big tech giant to their jurisdiction.
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  #191  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 9:20 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
My mortgage is coming up for renewal this October. Hmmm.
I'm going to renew early. We will either have two scenarios:

1) Rapid recovery from CV19. In which case, it's a V-shaped recovery. And rates (especially on fixed) might actually pop back up.

2) A U-shaped recovery where it takes a while. In which case, I get to benefit from lower rates earlier.

Already have 2.34 though till next year. So it's kinda hard to beat.
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  #192  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 9:57 PM
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$218 Billion lost today on Canadian stocks. When this recession hits Canada will likely be one of the hardest hit.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tsx-plun...apse-1.1402560
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  #193  
Old Posted Mar 9, 2020, 10:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thurmas View Post
$218 Billion lost today on Canadian stocks. When this recession hits Canada will likely be one of the hardest hit.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tsx-plun...apse-1.1402560
Hedge in Dollarama!

Quote:
Oil and gas stocks plummeted with Meg Energy Corp. tumbling 56 per cent, Cenovus Energy Inc. dropping 52 per cent and Crescent Point Energy Corp. slipping 43 per cent. Only one stock was in the green -- Dollarama Inc., which gained 1.7 per cent.
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  #194  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 1:07 AM
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urbandreamer urbandreamer is offline
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I bought some stocks this afternoon, including oil. It's rare we get deals like today, especially on dividend paying stocks.
Now I wait for the housing crash.
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  #195  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 1:53 AM
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Originally Posted by urbandreamer View Post
I bought some stocks this afternoon, including oil. It's rare we get deals like today, especially on dividend paying stocks.
Now I wait for the housing crash.
Haha, yes. I want a half price two bedroom please. I've got 35 years until I even think of retiring, this market can do whatever the fuck it wants. Don't like it? OK Boomer.
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  #196  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 2:10 AM
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Right now I expect real estate to gain value in all markets that weren't crazily speculative (i.e. the ones where cap rates were still decent) as interest rates fall and people start to look for safer investment alternatives to stocks.

(That's exactly what happened in the period that followed the GFC of 2008, BTW.)
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  #197  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 2:16 AM
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I see this more like 1987. Sure the interest rates are a non issue today but with record employment levels today the danger is a large recession causing people to lose their homes.
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  #198  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 2:34 AM
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I hedged my investments 2 weeks ago with DRIP, I got greedy on Friday for a profit of $300. However today if I had sold my profit would have been $2000. I have another hedge in FAZ, I have 260 in profits on that, will likely sell at the end of this week. But not before setting up another hedge in DRIP or SQQQ.
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  #199  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
My mortgage is coming up for renewal this October. Hmmm.
Mine is in April so things are looking good for the moment.
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  #200  
Old Posted Mar 10, 2020, 1:04 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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You guys buying the dip. Jeez. It's still early. Lots more red days to go. Bear markets see 1000pt swings regularly while trending down. And given how inflated stocks were at the top, I think the correction is going to be larger than average.

If you're actually trading (not buy and hold investing), these markets are heaven. Doubled my RRSP portfolio in a month. Once a decade opportunity.
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