Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Biff]

Manitoba News Release
............................................................
December 20, 2011

MANITOBA'S POPULATION GROWTH
THIRD BEST IN COUNTRY: BJORNSON

More people are calling Manitoba home than ever before, with the provincial population at 1,254,700, according to new Statistics Canada figures released this morning, Entrepreneurship, Training and Trade Minister Peter Bjornson said today.

"Our government has a record of making solid investments to build our province and make it more affordable and attractive for families looking to put down roots," said Bjornson.

The new statistics show from October 2010 to October 2011, Manitoba had a near-record gain of 15,700 people. This is the second-highest level since record keeping began in 1971. This gain puts Manitoba above the national average for the third consecutive year, Bjornson noted.

Since last October, nearly 10,000 more individuals came to Manitoba than left for other provinces or countries, nearly matching last year's record total of 10,238. The main driver of this net inflow was the record arrival of 15,770 immigrants from around the world, the minister said.

"The Provincial Nominee Program continues to be a great success. It now accounts for three-quarters of all new immigrants," said Bjornson.

The minister noted that Manitoba's population has increased by nearly 47,000 people over the last
36 months, driven by a net inflow of 30,000 people. This was by far the best three-year increase since at least 1970, he added.

[thurmas]

What I find interesting is Manitoba is taking in roughly 6% of the 250,000 immigrants a year who come to Canada yet Manitoba is only about 3.7% of Canada's population so over time we will become a larger proportion of the Canadian population.

[roccerfeller]

Something interesting population information from this link that trebor provided in the Boundary expansion thread


http://www.winnipeg.ca/CLKDMIS/ViewD...onId=&InitUrl=



Key Points:

- Increase of >40 000 people over last ten years, after an extended period of barely any population growth

- Next ten years, projected growth is >70 000 people (1.75% increase over previous decade)

- From 2008 - 2010, population was originally projected to grow by 17,200 people according to Conference Board of Canada

- Actual 2008-2010 population growth turned out to be 56% higher... or 30,500 people, with a vast majority coming in 09/10.

- With the readjusted projections, by 2031 (20 years) the total population growth is now projected to be 174,000 to the city & >30k to the greater Winnipeg area, for a population of 950,000 to 1 million.

- Even with these projections, the yearly population growth is still outpacing the projections....

[J-MAN]

Originally Posted by Biff

Manitoba News Release
............................................................
December 20, 2011

MANITOBA'S POPULATION GROWTH
THIRD BEST IN COUNTRY: BJORNSON

That's what I like to hear.

[UPP]

Originally Posted by thurmas

What I find interesting is Manitoba is taking in roughly 6% of the 250,000 immigrants a year who come to Canada yet Manitoba is only about 3.7% of Canada's population so over time we will become a larger proportion of the Canadian population.

Except that you have a net outmigration of current residents

[jmt18325]

But since Manitoba is growing faster than most other provinces, he's still right.

[Tower Crane]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Something interesting population information from this link that trebor provided in the Boundary expansion thread


http://www.winnipeg.ca/CLKDMIS/ViewD...onId=&InitUrl=



Key Points:

- Increase of >40 000 people over last ten years, after an extended period of barely any population growth

the projections....

Winnipegs / manitobas population has only increased due ti an increased inter nation immigration program. Everyone seems to forget that without bumping up those numbers it would be a net lose each year, that's the important piece that needs fixing.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by Tower Crane

Winnipegs / manitobas population has only increased due ti an increased inter nation immigration program. Everyone seems to forget that without bumping up those numbers it would be a net lose each year, that's the important piece that needs fixing.

This is where you're misinformed.

Its not the only way its grown.

There has been some inter provincial migration, believe it or not. A fair number of people have been moving here from Alberta & Ontario, in addition to immigration. Its not all immigration, though they are a large portion of new inhabitants.

Believe it or not, some people do fancy Winnipeg as its an affordable city with economic stability, and some people just go to Alberta, make their $$$, then move to Winnipeg where they won't be in near as much debt or they have been laid off in Ontario and can't afford to move further west to Saskatchewan, Alberta or BC, so they end up in Winnipeg.

Those 40,000 people were not all immigrants -- though many of them were.

[Tower Crane]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

This is where you're misinformed.

Its not the only way its grown.

There has been some inter provincial migration, believe it or not. A fair number of people have been moving here from Alberta & Ontario, in addition to immigration. Its not all immigration, though they are a large portion of new inhabitants

Believe it or not, some people do fancy Winnipeg as its an affordable city with economic stability, and some people just go to Alberta, make their $$$, then move to Winnipeg where they won't be in near as much debt or they have been laid off in Ontario and can't afford to move further west to Saskatchewan, Alberta or BC, so they end up in Winnipeg.
Those 40,000 people were not all immigrants -- though many of them were.

I believe Manitoba reports provincial migration as a net outgoing so your comments and facts don't add up or match. So I assume for every 1 moving back there are 1 point something still leaving.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by Tower Crane

I believe Manitoba reports provincial migration as a net outgoing so your comments and facts don't add up or match. So I assume for every 1 moving back there are 1 point something still leaving.

Although the first post on this page, I think you should read it over again

Some points that might aid you: "net growth" mean what is left over in the end.

Note how Immigration growth does not equal net growth. In fact, its less. Thus the only other option is Manitoba stopped growing agriculture and started growing humans.

I'll let you figure that one out

Originally Posted by Biff

Manitoba News Release
............................................................
December 20, 2011

MANITOBA'S POPULATION GROWTH
THIRD BEST IN COUNTRY: BJORNSON

More people are calling Manitoba home than ever before, with the provincial population at 1,254,700, according to new Statistics Canada figures released this morning, Entrepreneurship, Training and Trade Minister Peter Bjornson said today.

"Our government has a record of making solid investments to build our province and make it more affordable and attractive for families looking to put down roots," said Bjornson.

The new statistics show from October 2010 to October 2011, Manitoba had a near-record gain of 15,700 people. This is the second-highest level since record keeping began in 1971. This gain puts Manitoba above the national average for the third consecutive year, Bjornson noted.

Since last October, nearly 10,000 more individuals came to Manitoba than left for other provinces or countries, nearly matching last year's record total of 10,238. The main driver of this net inflow was the record arrival of 15,770 immigrants from around the world, the minister said.

"The Provincial Nominee Program continues to be a great success. It now accounts for three-quarters of all new immigrants," said Bjornson.

The minister noted that Manitoba's population has increased by nearly 47,000 people over the last
36 months, driven by a net inflow of 30,000 people. This was by far the best three-year increase since at least 1970, he added.

[rypinion]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Although the first post on this page, I think you should read it over again

Some points that might aid you: "net growth" mean what is left over in the end.

Note how Immigration growth does not equal net growth. In fact, its less. Thus the only other option is Manitoba stopped growing agriculture and started growing humans.

I'll let you figure that one out

That article says:

Overall Net Growth: +15700
Net Migration (interprovincial and international): Nearly +10000
Total Immigration (assumed international): +15770

Therefore, Net Interprovincial Migration is 10000 - 15770 = -5770.

Almost 6,000 more people moved to other provinces then moved here from other provinces. That's what Tower Crane is getting at.

And, 15700 - 10000 = 5700 "Natural Growth" (Babies minus deaths).

Feel free to correct me if something is wrong here.

[Tower Crane]

Originally Posted by rypinion

That article says:

Overall Net Growth: +15700
Net Migration (interprovincial and international): Nearly +10000
Total Immigration (assumed international): +15770

Therefore, Net Interprovincial Migration is 10000 - 15770 = -5770.

Almost 6,000 more people moved to other provinces then moved here from other provinces. That's what Tower Crane is getting at.

And, 15700 - 10000 = 5700 "Natural Growth" (Babies minus deaths).

Feel free to correct me if something is wrong here.

Nothing to figure out roccerfeller, rypinion's confirming what I've been saying.

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by rypinion

That article says:

Overall Net Growth: +15700
Net Migration (interprovincial and international): Nearly +10000
Total Immigration (assumed international): +15770

Therefore, Net Interprovincial Migration is 10000 - 15770 = -5770.

Almost 6,000 more people moved to other provinces then moved here from other provinces. That's what Tower Crane is getting at.

And, 15700 - 10000 = 5700 "Natural Growth" (Babies minus deaths).

Feel free to correct me if something is wrong here.

Nope, you're correct...and it is stated (now three times) on this page. Thanks for breaking it down though.

But, it doesn't change the miscommunication happening between Tower and myself.

Originally Posted by Tower Crane

Nothing to figure out roccerfeller, rypinion's confirming what I've been saying.

Then you need to be more clear Tower Crane

You can't say its the only way people are coming in, or that no one is moving here inter-provincially. That is a big misconception, imo, about people staying in Winnipeg.

Winnipegs / manitobas population has only increased due ti an increased inter nation immigration program. Everyone seems to forget that without bumping up those numbers it would be a net lose each year, that's the important piece that needs fixing.

Again, as I had said: Immigration is not the only reason we've had population growth. It is a huge factor, yes. And a very important factor, yes.

But on the matter of net population, as in residents in Winnipeg; It is not ALL immigrants. MANY of the people who leave (and thus add to out-province migration) are immigrants themselves.

See what I'm getting at?

[chrisallard5454]

I personally know of two people moving in from other provinces. Myself and one other!

[Tower Crane]

Four of Canada's fastest growing cities are in the West, where Calgary and Edmonton have posted the highest percentage increases in population among the country's 33 metropolitan areas.


With Calgary growing by 12.6 per cent between 2006 and 2011, Edmonton by 12.1 per cent, Saskatoon by 11.4 per cent and Kelowna, B.C., by 10.8 per cent, the four fastest growing metropolitan areas are located in the West.


Rounding out the Top 10 are: Moncton, N.B., and St. John's, N.L., Quebec City, Toronto, Oshawa, Ont., and Ottawa-Gatineau.

[Tower Crane]

Here's the CMA's over 180,000 people.

Toronto 5,583,064
Montréal 3,824,221
Vancouver 2,313,328
Ottawa - Gatineau 1,236,324
Calgary 1,214,839
Edmonton 1,159,869
Québec 765,706
Winnipeg 730,018
Hamilton 721,053
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 477,160
London 474,786
St. Catharines - Niagara 392,184
Halifax 390,328
Oshawa 356,177
Victoria 344,615
Windsor 319,246
Saskatoon 260,600
Regina 210,556
Sherbrooke 201,890
St. John's 196,966
Barrie 187,013
Kelowna 179,839

[chrisallard5454]

Downtown exchange through Point Douglas saw an increase of over 17% population. Where as it seems a lot of population around the inner city is still fleeing to the burbs. Unfortunately it seems as if Winnipeg is going to turn into every other North American sprawlville within the next couple of decades..

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...-01-00-eng.pdf

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by Tower Crane

Here's the CMA's over 180,000 people.

Toronto 5,583,064
Montréal 3,824,221
Vancouver 2,313,328
Ottawa - Gatineau 1,236,324
Calgary 1,214,839
Edmonton 1,159,869
Québec 765,706
Winnipeg 730,018
Hamilton 721,053
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 477,160
London 474,786
St. Catharines - Niagara 392,184
Halifax 390,328
Oshawa 356,177
Victoria 344,615
Windsor 319,246
Saskatoon 260,600
Regina 210,556
Sherbrooke 201,890
St. John's 196,966
Barrie 187,013
Kelowna 179,839

Interesting, seems to be different from the 2010 estimates. The top 10, in addition to Regina, Saskatoon, Sherbrooke and Halifax all a little lower than I expected. DIfferent from city estimates as well.

Winnipeg about 35k less than I'd expected.

Originally Posted by chrisallard5454

Downtown exchange through Point Douglas saw an increase of over 17% population. Where as it seems a lot of population around the inner city is still fleeing to the burbs. Unfortunately it seems as if Winnipeg is going to turn into every other North American sprawlville within the next couple of decades..

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...-01-00-eng.pdf

At least its good news for the exchange. Sprawl will happen especially with the housing boom (people selling older homes for newer homes), population growth (people moving here need vacant homes somewhere, especially when there is little choice), and general city development.

That picture shows why the city really is interested in expanding its boundary.

[UPP]

It would seem that Quebec City will hold on to 7th spot in Canada for some time to come with 30,000 + more people than Winnipeg and a higher % of growth.

[chrisallard5454]

Originally Posted by UPP

It would seem that Quebec City will hold on to 7th spot in Canada for some time to come with 30,000 + more people than Winnipeg and a higher % of growth.

I think in regards to Quebec and Winnipeg one should look at the CY analysis for a more accurate depiction. Quebec City has almost 200 000 people less within the actual city. Winnipeg has by my guess one of the smallest CMA's in N.A and rightfully so. I think it is something to be proud of, but therefore cannot be used as an accurate comparison to other CMA's. This is why when comparing cities to Winnipeg I generally only compare CY's. But when comparing cities to other cities, it is more accurate to compare CMA's.

Winnipeg Pop. 663 617 from 633 451 (+30 166)
CMA 730 018 from 694 668 (+35 350)
CMA excluding CY (+5 184)


Quebec Pop. 516 622 from 491 142 (+25 480)
CMA 765 706 from 719 153 (+46 553)
CMA excluding CY (+21 073)

More people are moving to surrounding communities than the city of Quebec itself. Which in comparison isn't that big of a deal.

Winnipeg LA (464.08km)
CMA (5 303km)

Quebec LA (454km)
CMA (3 349.12km)

Winnipeg's city size is only 10km more than that of a city 150 000 smaller, which means higher density. Also Winnipeg's drawing CMA is much larger which shows just how small the surrounding area is (pop wise) around Winnipeg.