Quote:
Originally Posted by austlar1
pdxtex, what kind of work do you do that makes you feel so secure about the future? I'm 70 years old, and, if you told me just 15 or 20 years ago that I could obtain a vast library of accurate information, live-stream video, make around the world phone calls, send and receive pictures, text, or email practically anywhere in the world from my little hand held all purpose wireless device and I could do it without incurring any extra charges to boot, I would have suggested that you see a shrink. That was the kind of shit that only Dick Tracy could do on his magic wrist watch, which was not an Apple Watch by the way. I have seen so much change come so quickly in my lifetime. I suspect it is more than likely that most of the work now done by humans (not just manufacturing or truck driving but also most intellectual tasks involving creative thinking, organizational skills, and problem solving) will be done by computers and various forms of AI within the next two or three decades. 90% of humankind will become redundant and scarily expendable. The other 10% might still be needed to function as technicians in the service of this vastly superior artificial intelligence. One suspects our new masters won't feel the need to provide universal basic income. They'll probably just send a genetically engineered final solution our way and get on with their business.
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15 years ago was 2002. people were using the internet in the mid 1980s, even earlier if you ever used one of those "phone" modems you actually put the phone earpiece into. im a cad designer at a large utility company. i design substations and transmission lines. when cad first came along, manual drafter either adapted to the tech, or did something else. same with photogrammetrists, you learned gis or did something. else. im don't think my job is free from being streamlined or outsourced either, but its far from being "automated". if anything, electricity generation might be different in the future, this is true and elon musk will have put me out of a job. but for now there's too much human interaction involved. and thats the key, does your occupation require more than one persons input, frequent changes in process? i use "automated" tasks, bulk printing, global edits, but until they invent the drafting robot, engineering will probably be a safe field (have you seen how many wonks are involved to build a sub-station??? lots!). tasks to be automated will be simple processes, redundant actions....we've been striving to reduce redundancy since, well for a very long time......i take it you aren't a fry cook and probably didn't work at mall record shop. the key will be to produce the information, not be the end user of it. if you can maintain value by your presence in place, than people should be fine. but yeah, coders being outsourced by folks in india should worry. people will adapt....suppose this is all hogwash though, we've put ourselves all of out a job thru technology and UBI takes place. what will people do all day? i hear the philosophical arguments for it, but what value will people have then? were just going to sit around, receive money and pay our bills?? no one really seems to grasp what all of these jobless people will do then besides sitting around and "existing". i agree, some kind of single payer safety net seems good and perhaps america needs a better one. i guarantee the borders to this country will be effectively closed the moment ubi takes hold though and the cities will be chaos. so if you all are right, ill be up in the hills protecting my bunker....but waiting for my check too!
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