10 Million Toronto

[hired_goons]

Which do you think will occur first:

Greater Toronto hitting 10M population
-or-
Canada having 10 cities with a metro of at least 1 million


Toronto is at 6M now so requires another 4M people to reach 10M.

Canada already has 6 metros over 1M so a further 4 are required to reach 10.

Here are the top most populous CMA's as of 2016 census:
1. Toronto 5.9m
2. Montreal 4m
3. Vancouver 2.4m
4. Calgary 1.3m
5. Ottawa 1.3m
6. Edmonton 1.3m
7. QuebecCity 800k
8. Winnipeg 778k
9. Hamilton 747k
10. Kit/Water 523k
------------------
11. london 494k
12. st cath. 406k
13. halifax 400k

If you're cheering for 10 cities >1M before Toronto's 10M I fear it is the 10th spot that will let you down. Asking a city like London or K-W do double it's population before Toronto (6.1% growth rate) adds another 4M seems a little much.
Of course this will take decades either way and anything can happen.
Come on, Halifax!

[mistercorporate]

Greater Toronto hitting 10M

[Taeolas]

I'll take the long odds and say we'll hit 10 1Million first.

As noted the Top 9 are easy enough to reach there.

The 10th slot will be Halifax happening after Nova Scotia gets 1 million, and the province amalgamates the entire province into the Halifax regional Municipality.

More seriously, KW by itself is a long shot to crack the 7 digits by itself, but it also seems to be 'cheating' by pulling in Cambridge (already absorbed) and possibly snagging Guelph. That could be the boost it needs to beat Toronto's 10 million milestone.

[Tibor420]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

More seriously, KW by itself is a long shot to crack the 7 digits by itself, but it also seems to be 'cheating' by pulling in Cambridge (already absorbed) and possibly snagging Guelph. That could be the boost it needs to beat Toronto's 10 million milestone.

How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by Tibor420

How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)

Think they will ever amalgamate the tri-cities?

[Tibor420]

With Ford at the controls who knows...

If it does, all 3 garbage names should be scrapped and just call it Grand River.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Tibor420

How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)

It was a bit of a joking response, and also an acknowledgement that Guelph seems to be increasingly pulled into the tricity group as well.

I attended UWaterloo back in the 90's, and at the time, Cambridge was barely on the radar as far as the city went. 20 years later, and it's firmly part of the Tricity area.

Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

It was a bit of a joking response, and also an acknowledgement that Guelph seems to be increasingly pulled into the tricity group as well.

I attended UWaterloo back in the 90's, and at the time, Cambridge was barely on the radar as far as the city went. 20 years later, and it's firmly part of the Tricity area.

Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.

KWCG is the future.

[Nite]

Here is another map that includes all the CMA in the goldern horseshoe

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

The 10th slot will be Halifax happening after Nova Scotia gets 1 million, and the province amalgamates the entire province into the Halifax regional Municipality.

Halifax Regional Municipality is large but Halifax CMA is unremarkable.

There's almost no development east of Halifax but there are lots of little towns and suburbs north and west of the CMA, many of which have high shares of commuters (near 50%). In that sense Halifax is one of the more "conservative" CMAs. The population might have been significantly larger with minor changes to the census divisions.

It could hit 500,000 in only a few years if parts of Hants are included. The Halifax "commutershed" is already about 500,000.

1,000,000 is very far off though. So far off that a bunch of fundamental things could easily change before then (e.g. economy tanks, booms, immigration goes way up or down) that predictions would at best be very rough.

[Calgarian]

What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.

Just the population of the Golden Horseshoe listed in the OP you get over 8 million; and I don't believe it includes Windsor or Guelph or Chatham or Niagara (possibly included in St cats?). It all depends on where you put the limits of the horseshoe; It may not be correct but I'd stretch it along the bulk of the SOON region from Windsor to Toronto and Niagara)

Even if you limit the horseshoe to K/W, that still puts it around 7.5M based on the OPs numbers, and may not include Guelph and Niagara.

Are Mississagua and Brampton included in the Toronto CMA?

So yeah, the Horseshoe will probably easily crack 10million within the decade or so.

Getting the 10th 1M city will be challenging for Cananda, but it will probably be in Ontario regardless, KWCG or London most likely.

[north 42]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Just the population of the Golden Horseshoe listed in the OP you get over 8 million; and I don't believe it includes Windsor or Guelph or Chatham or Niagara (possibly included in St cats?). It all depends on where you put the limits of the horseshoe; It may not be correct but I'd stretch it along the bulk of the SOON region from Windsor to Toronto and Niagara)

Even if you limit the horseshoe to K/W, that still puts it around 7.5M based on the OPs numbers, and may not include Guelph and Niagara.

Are Mississagua and Brampton included in the Toronto CMA?

So yeah, the Horseshoe will probably easily crack 10million within the decade or so.

Getting the 10th 1M city will be challenging for Cananda, but it will probably be in Ontario regardless, KWCG or London most likely.

Windsor is almost 4 hours away from the GTA and the Golden Horseshoe, it will never be a part of that region, even London is too far away to be lumped in with it.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.

GGH Population: 9.245 million (2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horseshoe

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

GGH Population: 9.245 million (2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horseshoe

Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.

I think you mean the CSA.

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think you mean the CSA.

Yeah, I always get confused the way they do it down there. Greater LA is about the same area as the GGH, though with about 2x the population lol.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.

I remember somebody actually calculated Toronto's metro population using the American formula, and IIRC Toronto's "MSA" basically corresponded to the GTAH (~7.2 million today), but its "CSA" didn't quite include the entirety of the Golden Horseshoe (again, IIRC, but KW and Guelph probably wouldn't have been included).

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.

Depends on the "how" for me. If it's a case of X% of Guelphites deciding to drive out to Kitchener for work and thus being lumped into its CMA, then it's a statistical quirk moreso than a true measure of functional metropolitan population. However, if the two cities were to develop a robust transportation system between them then it would be able to function as a cohesive, multi-nodal metro area (almost like a mini Rhine-Ruhr or something).

[Doady]

Originally Posted by Calgarian

Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.

By US standards, the Toronto MSA would include Burlington and the Oshawa CMA (since MSAs are based on upper tier municipal boundaries) with population of 6,111,072 in 2011. It would be combined with the MSAs of Hamilton, Guelph and Barrie to form the Toronto-Hamilton-Guelph-Barrie CSA which would have a population of 7,285,444.

[jigglysquishy]

For us out west, Toronto is the Hamilton/Toronto/Oshawa CMAs. For those in the area, it's municipal Toronto. For those in a Toronto, it's Old Toronto.

My cousin says anything north of Eglington is rural