Will electric cars encourage sprawl?

[chris08876]

^^^^

And that was my line of thinking in a way. As fossil fuels are finite, just for sake of argument, if gas or diesel was $10 a gallon, I'd be willing to bet many more minds might decide that its better to live closer to a train line or closer to work if its in an urban core.

So long as the cost of automobile use remains cheap (relatively speaking), the autocentric lifestyle will continue.

Granted things like working from home don't help (the increase).

[F1 Tommy]

Why would self-driving cars eliminate the reality of congestion?? They are just self driving, that's all.

Don't plan on ICE being gone any time soon. Due to the battery production high pollution rate a hybrid would make more sense by using much smaller batteries and eliminating the need for recharging stations. Electric/ICE cars with much higher mileage will be what happens I bet, so 2050 will still have Hybrid ICE driven vehicles along with full Electric.

And I will lay money Tesla will be gone by 2030 or sooner. Just don't get in an accident with one. It will take 4 months for the bodywork to be repaired if it doesn't catch fire and burn to the ground.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Why would self-driving cars eliminate the reality of congestion?? They are just self driving, that's all.

The line of thought is that the cars will be more efficient since they will be able to communicate to each other. That said, I don't buy it that we'll all be using self-driving cars in a decade. There will definitely be autonomous vehicles but they'll mostly be for commercial use (e.g. rental car shuttles). We might also get to the point within a decade where trucks drive autonomously on interstates outside of metropolitan areas, but the "last mile" through densely population areas is done manually.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Don't plan on ICE being gone any time soon. Due to the battery production high pollution rate a hybrid would make more sense by using much smaller batteries and eliminating the need for recharging stations. Electric/ICE cars with much higher mileage will be what happens I bet, so 2050 will still have Hybrid ICE driven vehicles along with full Electric.

And I will lay money Tesla will be gone by 2030 or sooner. Just don't get in an accident with one. It will take 4 months for the bodywork to be repaired if it doesn't catch fire and burn to the ground.

I think Tesla's threat is from the large automakers getting into the EV game. They gave Tesla a decade to feel out the market and now they're all getting into the game. Electric vehicle R&D was cited as one of the reasons for the recently announced merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by mhays

Costs vary depending on a bunch of factors...levels of pollution, mitigation plan, who's responsible, soils, whether you already built in shoring and excavation costs, and so on. But it's generally a big hurdle.

oh yeah, i don't doubt for one second that the additional costs for cleaning up and remediating a former gas station site are considerable.

but there are clearly cases in chicago where those costs can be overcome to replace them with urban mixed-use redevelopment.

maybe there is government money available (local, state, or federal) that can help defray some of those clean-up costs?



in any event, gas stations are fucking terrible, so as we move away from gasoline powered vehicles in the coming decades, the disappearance of the city gas station will be a wonderful thing.

cleaner air AND an improved built environment, win-win!!!

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The line of thought is that the cars will be more efficient since they will be able to communicate to each other. That said, I don't buy it that we'll all be using self-driving cars in a decade.

In theory but most traffic backups around Chicago are caused by road construction and the random highway shutdown for CPD and the state police to search for bullets. I think self driving cars will cause little improvement.

By the way, they have come up with a military grade battery that would work and limit battery production pollution, but it costs a small fortune and only goes 1500 miles before it needs replacement.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

oh yeah, i don't doubt for one second that the additional costs for cleaning up and remediating a former gas station site are considerable.

but there are clearly cases in chicago where those costs can be overcome to replace them with urban mixed-use redevelopment.

maybe there is government money available (local, state, or federal) that can help defray some of those clean-up costs?



in any event, gas stations are fucking terrible, so as we move away from gasoline powered vehicles in the coming decades, the disappearance of the city gas station will be a wonderful thing.

cleaner air AND an improved built environment, win-win!!!

In Miami, from gas station to Zaha Hadid designed tower:
before:
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7839...7i13312!8i6656

After:
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7839...7i16384!8i8192

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by dave8721

In Miami, from gas station to Zaha Hadid designed tower:
before:
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7839...7i13312!8i6656

After:
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7839...7i16384!8i8192

Another Miami example:
Before (gas station):
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7853...!7i3328!8i1664

After (urban retail):
https://www.google.com/maps/@25.7853...7i16384!8i8192

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by ocman

I think commute times have a bigger impact on sprawl than oil prices. If self-driving cars happen to eliminate the reality of congestion, that might have a bigger effect. Say, a lot more people choosing to live in Inland Empire and commuting to LA.

People seem way more willing to spend an hour on a train than an hour driving to and from work. So I would agree that self driving cars will do the same thing.

I know I would tolerate a longer commute if I could spend it doing work or whatever during the ride.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think Tesla's threat is from the large automakers getting into the EV game. They gave Tesla a decade to feel out the market and now they're all getting into the game. Electric vehicle R&D was cited as one of the reasons for the recently announced merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot.

Tesla has the gigafactories and the battery technology which could leverage their position in the future should large automakers squeeze their market share in EV sales. I always thought the technology not the cars were Tesla's future.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by bilbao58

These would be electric cars that don't spontaneously combust, right?

lol, what now? these comments always crack me up. gasoline fumes are explosive, lithium batteries are compartmentalized...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQpX-9OyEr4

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Tesla has the gigafactories and the battery technology which could leverage their position in the future should large automakers squeeze their market share in EV sales. I always thought the technology not the cars were Tesla's future.

Tesla has had MAJOR logistics issues. Can you imagine Ford or GM having the production issues that Tesla went through to get the Model 3 out of the door? Remember last year when Elon claimed to be sleeping on a sofa in a conference room at one of the factories? Tesla wouldn't have survived this long if they had had a serious EV competitor before now.

[SFBruin]

Originally Posted by Obadno

People seem way more willing to spend an hour on a train than an hour driving to and from work. So I would agree that self driving cars will do the same thing.

I know I would tolerate a longer commute if I could spend it doing work or whatever during the ride.

Sure, but part of this is that trains are known to be incredibly safe. I used to nap on the train when I took it to work. I wouldn't do this if I knew that there was a >0.01% chance of it's crashing.

[TexasPlaya]

Maybe? Maybe not?

I think we will get both denser and more spread out.

[pdxtex]

Consumer demand and zoning create sprawl, not automobile choice.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

You still can't fully charge a battery in 3 minutes.

It's such a myth that something new has to be an improvement in every way in order to be seen and accepted as a net improvement. Things are different and don't all have the same advantage and disadvantages. When I was growing up we installed electric heating and stopped using wood since it was way more convenient despite disadvantages such as it being more expensive and not working when the power was out.

[xzmattzx]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The line of thought is that the cars will be more efficient since they will be able to communicate to each other. That said, I don't buy it that we'll all be using self-driving cars in a decade. There will definitely be autonomous vehicles but they'll mostly be for commercial use (e.g. rental car shuttles). We might also get to the point within a decade where trucks drive autonomously on interstates outside of metropolitan areas, but the "last mile" through densely population areas is done manually.

I don't know about that. Teslas have a problem of recognizing cars turning into oncoming traffic right now. They can't "communicate" with another vehicle in some instances. Then look at the other extreme. If cars communicate through each other through some type of network, then cars can be hacked into. We are already hearing about people hacking into refrigerators, thermostats, etc. Maybe the damage done isn't a big deal when someone hacks into a smart refrigerator, other than data stolen, but the threat of controlling a car remotely is an issue to address if a car network is developed.

[xzmattzx]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

It's such a myth that something new has to be an improvement in every way in order to be seen and accepted as a net improvement. Things are different and don't all have the same advantage and disadvantages. When I was growing up we installed electric heating and stopped using wood since it was way more convenient despite disadvantages such as it being more expensive and not working when the power was out.

You hit on the key word: convenience. This is why gas-powered cars are here to stay as things stand right now. It is much more convenient to fill up, or "recharge", a car that runs on gas. It takes less than 5 minutes. Can you charge a battery that runs a car from 10% to 95% in 5 minutes? What happens if you have to drive from DC to New York City and you forgot to plug in your car overnight? Do you have to wait until the next day now?

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by xzmattzx

You hit on the key word: convenience. This is why gas-powered cars are here to stay as things stand right now. It is much more convenient to fill up, or "recharge", a car that runs on gas. It takes less than 5 minutes. Can you charge a battery that runs a car from 10% to 95% in 5 minutes? What happens if you have to drive from DC to New York City and you forgot to plug in your car overnight? Do you have to wait until the next day now?

you plug it in nightly and keep it fully charged; it becomes a habit. on the off chance you do need to go on a road trip, there are superchargers that will refill it rather quickly - not a 5 minute job (yet) but in reasonable amount of time. my husband and i have an etron; we took it down to jacksonville a couple of months ago and stopped at electrify america superchargers in cordele and lake city (fl) - at each stop we still had over 30% of battery left, so it took only about 20m to get back more than 80%, enough time to chill, stretch, whatever. it wasn't bad at all - if you want to get somewhere fast, you fly.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by cabasse

you plug it in nightly and keep it fully charged; it becomes a habit. on the off chance you do need to go on a road trip, there are superchargers that will refill it rather quickly - not a 5 minute job (yet) but in reasonable amount of time. my husband and i have an etron; we took it down to jacksonville a couple of months ago and stopped at electrify america superchargers in cordele and lake city (fl) - at each stop we still had over 30% of battery left, so it took only about 20m to get back more than 80%, enough time to chill, stretch, whatever. it wasn't bad at all - if you want to get somewhere fast, you fly.

Still if you want to take a long trip, like from DC to NYC, you have to worry about range and running out of juice. And batteries do degrade over time. No electric car for me until the range hits 500 miles.

[montréaliste]

Hybrids are a good alternative for now. My son's Prius is a plug-in, he does.every night and rarely uses gas in his to and from work cycles.

The negative trade-off of all electric vehicles will be mining ores that will be depleted in time and the pollution is also insane. There may still be a better option in hydrogen powered vehicles.