Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[Docere]

I'll try to do a more detailed analysis later...but my feeling is the Liberals get re-elected with either a slim majority or just short of that, maybe 175 seats.

[SignalHillHiker]

As long as the federal Conservative Party doesn't win, I'm fine with the result.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, it depends on who is running. MP Nick Whalen in St. John's East is definitely vulnerable. He rode the red wave to barely defeat the NDP incumbent Jack Harris, 46.7% to 45.3%. In the previous three elections, Harris won with 70-75% of the vote. There is certainly no red wave this time, so if Harris runs, I expect he will win.

St. John's South-Mount Pearl has flipped between the Liberals and NDP for the last several elections. MP Seamus O'Regan is popular, much moreso than the separatist NDP incumbent he defeated ever was. So that one is probably safe.

Pre-Harper, both of these ridings (and their predecessors) were reliably blue. The current Conservative Party won't change that, but some future iteration certainly could. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism or libertarianism is definitely what these ridings prefer.

For the rest, they will never go NDP. Ever. Under any circumstances. They could go Conservative if the local candidate is beloved enough, but that isn't likely.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

As long as the federal Conservative Party doesn't win, I'm fine with the result.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, it depends on who is running. MP Nick Whalen in St. John's East is definitely vulnerable. He rode the red wave to barely defeat the NDP incumbent Jack Harris, 46.7% to 45.3%. In the previous three elections, Harris won with 70-75% of the vote. There is certainly no red wave this time, so if Harris runs, I expect he will win.

St. John's South-Mount Pearl has flipped between the Liberals and NDP for the last several elections. MP Seamus O'Regan is popular, much moreso than the separatist NDP incumbent he defeated ever was. So that one is probably safe.

Pre-Harper, both of these ridings (and their predecessors) were reliably blue. The current Conservative Party won't change that, but some future iteration certainly could. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism or libertarianism is definitely what these ridings prefer.

For the rest, they will never go NDP. Ever. Under any circumstances. They could go Conservative if the local candidate is beloved enough, but that isn't likely.

If I were to take a stab at the results for NL next election, I'd guess that Seamus O'Reagan will hold SJS-MP for the Liberals, and that St. John's North could flip back to the NDP with a strong candidate (heck, Jack Harris could win it back if he ran again). I think the days of a Conservative Party held St. John's are over, especially considering the large student population and how a rise in left-wing activism has come forth in the past ten years. I would bet that St. John's will primarily be an NDP stronghold in the future.

As for the rest of the province, safe bet to assume Liberal. Labrador could always go astray if a Conservative politician promised them the world. One interesting riding to watch would be Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. It's a new district only held by the extremely popular Judy Foote and her successor, but the districts that have preceeded it have flirted close to Conservative victory in recent times past. In 2006 Random-Burin-St. George's voted 40% for the CPC versus 45% for the incumbent Liberal, and Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls accounted for 40% CPC votes in both 2004 and 2006 elections. If anything is going to surprise flip, it'll be there, and a slight litmus test for the health of the CPC party in the province. West coast and south coast ridings are a sure lock for the Liberals, even if Hitler ran the Liberal party.

[hipster duck]

Liberal: majority hold
PC: small gains, mostly by recapturing the little that they lost in Alberta in 2015
Bloc: Probably the biggest gainer proportionally. Will sweep former NDP territory
NDP: Probably biggest net loser, also in Quebec.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Bloc: Probably the biggest gainer proportionally. Will sweep former NDP territory
NDP: Probably biggest net loser, also in Quebec.

Remains far from certain what'll happen with all the ridings the NDP is going to lose.

The Bloc has almost disbanded at this point. Half the MPs have left and are forming a new federal party. That's going to lead to even further vote splitting, unless they patch things up (and it's increasingly likely we're past that point).

The recent Chicoutimi by-election is an interesting barometer: traditionally a Bloc riding like most of the province, it was won (narrowly) by the Trudeau Liberals in 2015, then it flipped to the Conservatives in 2018. It's very possible many people here will think we've seen more than enough of JT by now, and vote for something else.

It's Scheer's election to lose. Too bad he's so bland, any good leader would easily send JT to the job of Leader of the Opposition. But instead of that, it's a toss-up, and that's Scheer's fault.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

Liberal: majority hold
PC: small gains, mostly by recapturing the little that they lost in Alberta in 2015
Bloc: Probably the biggest gainer proportionally. Will sweep former NDP territory
NDP: Probably biggest net loser, also in Quebec.

I have a hard time seeing the Bloc gaining any seats. Look what just recently happened to the party. The BQ has had leadership issues and support in Quebec has been as low as 12% in recent polls.

Justin Trudeau has been recently visiting many NDP held ridings in Quebec. Those seats are the Liberals' best potential for gains in the next federal election. For example, he is visiting Rouyn-Noranda (the closest city to where I live) on Wednesday. In the past, Rouyn would have voted Bloc but there isn't the political environment anymore that once made the party a popular choice.

I do agree that the NDP will lose most of its Quebec seats and that will be because of Jagmeet Singh being party leader.

[once]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I have a hard time seeing the Bloc gaining any seats. Look what just recently happened to the party.

Events that happen outside the election cycle (roughly starting around August 2019, or whenever the first leadership debate is) are irrelevant. Likewise I think people are severely under-estimating Jagmeet's potential election cycle performance just because we still a year away from the election. Jack Layton was polling at 13% before the first debate, and Jagmeet is polling almost twice that now. Not bad for a guy who everybody says is the worst possible choice for the NDP.

Lots of "why isn't Jagmeet conquering the world right now" talk when the proof will be in that first debate. It always is in politics.

That aside I predict a Liberal minority, because I think people are a bit fed up with Justin's schtick so his "charms" won't be able to move the needle towards the Liberals when he rehashes his 2015 vision for Canada.

[whatnext]

An overstatement?

Maxime Bernier tweetstorm just cost the Conservatives the 2019 election

[thurmas]

CP 156 seats. I see the Tories taking back 15 Liberal seats in the West, 25 in Ontario 10 seats in Quebec and 7 seats in Atlantic Canada. Almost entirely from the Liberals these would come as the Liberals have a very slim chance of retaining the kind of support they got in 2015 when looking at polling trends this past year.

LB 145 seats. I see the Liberals losing 8 Atlantic seats, 32 in Ontario and 15 in the West. The only place I see the Liberals gaining seats is in Quebec from the NDP vote collapse there adding 16 seats.

NDP 36 seats. I see the NDP winning 1 Atlantic seat, losing all 16 of their Quebec seats, winning 16 seats in Ontario and 19 seats in the West.

Green 1 seat

[hipster duck]

^Interesting. Maybe I'm being a little conservative (pun) with my vote projections. People are very fickle these days, and the old adage "it's the economy, stupid" no longer applies to incumbents. Besides, the economy may/will probably be worse then than it is now.

I probably underestimated how well the Conservatives will do. I recognize that they'll pick up everything that they lost in the Prairies (that's sort of the natural order of things), and that they'll probably pick up something in Atlantic Canada, but it seems like they've hit a bit of a voter wall everywhere else. I can't see many more Southern Ontario ridings turning Conservative apart from the three or four in Central Ontario (which are also belwethers). They basically already have every riding that isn't urban or suburban.

[whatnext]

Too many variables to call right now. If Doug Ford goes Full Neanderthal in ON, he risks driving voters away from Mr.Peeper's federal Tories. If Singh loses the Burnaby byelection the NDP could be dead in the water.

[thurmas]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

^Interesting. Maybe I'm being a little conservative (pun) with my vote projections. People are very fickle these days, and the old adage "it's the economy, stupid" no longer applies to incumbents. Besides, the economy may/will probably be worse then than it is now.

I probably underestimated how well the Conservatives will do. I recognize that they'll pick up everything that they lost in the Prairies (that's sort of the natural order of things), and that they'll probably pick up something in Atlantic Canada, but it seems like they've hit a bit of a voter wall everywhere else. I can't see many more Southern Ontario ridings turning Conservative apart from the three or four in Central Ontario (which are also belwethers). They basically already have every riding that isn't urban or suburban.

Most federal polls since February show the Tories and Liberals either 2-3 points ahead of each other or tied in Ontario. In 2015 the Liberals won 80 Ontario seats with 44.8 % of the vote compared to the Tories 31 seats at 35% and the NDP won 8 seats at 16.6%. If both are roughly tied at 37% in Ontario and the NDP now has an Ontarian leader who should be able to gather more support in the visible minority ridings of the GTA than Mulcair could that only means the Liberals lose dozens of Ontario seats.

[MonkeyRonin]

Hopefully the Greens can increase their seat count severalfold, since the big 3 parties are all truly awful and more or less equally unappealing this time around.

[EpicPonyTime]

I think it will be another Liberal victory. They will definitely lose seats, but I cannot see them losing to either party.

With all of Trudeau's misteps, people forget how effective he was during the 2015 election. That election was won based on his personal style of politics vis-a-vis the Conservatives' and I don't see why that is going to change. The Cons elected a completely unappealing man as their leader and I think Scheer is going to have a very difficult time persuading anyone on the fence about voting blue to do so. There's a reason he is barely in the new as is.

The NDP is going to be hurt badly in the upcoming election as well. Singh was the wrong choice for leader for them as well. I could see the Greens benefitting at their detriment.

[mistercorporate]

Please god, anyone but Trudeau or the NDP

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Please god, anyone but Trudeau or the NDP

That tends to narrow the choice a bit ...

.

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

That tends to narrow the choice a bit ...

.

yeap!

[Black Star]

Originally Posted by mistercorporate

Please god, anyone but Trudeau or the NDP

For the sake of all that is holy.....No more of that bumbling stumbling babbling thing they call our PM. And that band of incompetent ideological liberal left wing kooks.

[Vixx]

Originally Posted by Black Star

For the sake of all that is holy.....No more of that bumbling stumbling babbling thing they call our PM. And that band of incompetent ideological liberal left wing kooks.

Amen.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Black Star

For the sake of all that is holy.....No more of that bumbling stumbling babbling thing they call our PM. And that band of incompetent ideological liberal left wing kooks.

As usual, a thoughtful and nuanced contribution to the debate, thanks so much.